10 Predictions for the Toronto Maple Leafs Off-Season
The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a very interesting position this off-season.
Being one of the very few teams with sufficient funds to actually go out and get significant upgrades to various positions on their current roster, the Toronto Maple Leafs have the unique ability to head into 2020-21 one of the most drastically changed teams.
Kyle Dubas and Co. are going to have one heck of challenge trying to navigate the rough economic situation of the National Hockey League as a whole, while upgrading their defense – maybe in goal as well – and simultaneously not hindering their terrific forward depth.
It is an incredibly difficult needle to thread; one that could only be done in this one-of-a-kind offseason that we are on the precipice of. With that in mind, let’s take a look at ten off-season predictions I have for the Toronto Maple Leafs just under two weeks away from the start of free agency, and later revisit the list when training camp begins again.
No. 10: Leafs will keep their 15th overall selection in the Draft.
In what is projected to be one of the deepest drafts in recent memory, at 15th overall the Leafs are going to get a highly skilled prospect. In the past few seasons, Toronto’s cupboards have been emptied with the likes of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander joining the big leagues.
This draft, Kyle Dubas has a chance to replenish some of that lost prospect talent in the form of Dawson Mercer, Braden Schneider, Dylan Holloway, Connor Zary, Rodion Amirov, or Seth Jarvis. If the Leafs get lucky enough should Yaroslav Askarov, Kaiden Guhle, or Jack Quinn fall into their lap, Toronto could walk away with the steal of the draft.
More pressing, the draft represents a fantastic way to acquire highly skilled players who will be on their entry-level contracts. To accommodate Toronto’s high-priced forwards, Dubas needs to find cost-effective, bottom-six forwards who can play well above their AAV. If the Leafs are able to land another big-ticket free agent this offseason, the need becomes even more important.
No. 9: Andersen Returns to the Leafs
Shortly after the Toronto Maple Leafs were eliminated by the Columbus Blue Jackets, rumours began swirling Dubas might be shopping for a potential Frederik Andersen replacement this offseason.
Taking a deeper look at the current goalie market that is said to be flooded with Andersen upgrades, the picture is not as rosy as it seems. A goalie like Jacob Markstrom could be an option, however, he is likely to command $6.5 million+ on his next contract and could you really say for certain he would be an upgrade over Andersen. Is it worth it for the extra $1.5 million that could help improve the rest of the roster?
A trade for another goalie is possible with potential replacements such as Darcy Kuemper and Matt Murray available. Kuemper would be a massive upgrade over Andersen, but they are a ton of teams in more desperate situations in net than Toronto and are most likely going to outbid the Leafs. Murray could be a nice option with him having won two Stanley Cups, but like Markstrom, could you say Murray is a definite upgrade?
The goalie situation is a decision Dubas has to absolutely nail as he knows what happens when a team does not have an adequate solution in net with the Michael Hutchinson fiasco. It is more likely Dubas will choose to keep Andersen for 2020-21 and address the situation next offseason.
No. 8: Joe Thornton replaces Jason Spezza as the Leafs 4C
Jason Spezza’s tenure in Toronto was one of the few bright spots for this organization in 2019-20. Scoring 9 goals and 16 points while only playing 10:50 a night (stats; hockey-reference), Spezza provided tremendous value for the Toronto Maple Leafs on a league minimum contract.
Likewise, the off-ice intangibles Spezza brought to this organization cannot be forgotten. His veteran leadership and mentorship of Toronto’s young core (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander namely) reaped incredible rewards this season and will continue to do so for years to come. Sadly, there is only room for one 35+, league-minimum contract on this roster and that should go to Joe Thornton.
The biggest addition Thornton would bring is his grit and nastiness night in and night out. Toronto has long been criticized for being too “soft” and not having enough hard-nosed players. Spezza fits that bill, Thornton does not.
For his career, Spezza is averaging 0.24 hits/game. For Thornton, he is almost triple that at 0.66 hits/game. Thornton has also shown more of a willingness to drop the gloves with the opposition, registering 27 fighting majors for his career to Spezza’s six.
Looking at both players’ raw stats, Thornton has been a significantly better point producer over the last three years. Thornton is averaging 0.7 goals/60 and 2.3 points/60 compared to Spezza’s 0.57 goals/60 and 1.77 points/60. (stats; evolving-hockey.com).
His grit and superior point production make ‘Jumbo’ Joe the perfect fit in the Leafs fourth-line center role.
No. 7: Travis Dermott is traded – on one condition.
It is such a shame it has come to this point, but it is time to say goodbye to Travis Dermott. The classic example of a tools vs. toolbox type of player, Dermott has all the potential to become a great top four defensemen in this league.
Many times during the 2019-20 season, Dermott was given the opportunity to show he was there in his development, however, squandered the chance every time. None more significant than when Jake Muzzin went down with an injury during the Columbus series and Dermott was just unable to answer the bell.
The Leafs are one of the deepest teams on the left side of the blueline. With Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, and Mikko Lehtonen all basically guaranteed spots on next year’s roster, coupled with him likely being passed on the depth chart by Rasmus Sandin, there does not seem to be room for Dermott anymore.
However, I said there was one condition. Dermott is from Newmarket, Ontario and as a Toronto kid, being drafted by the Leafs and as an RFA, he may choose to accept his qualifying offer of $874,125. In this case, it is easy to see how the Leafs can add to the right side of their blueline while keeping Dermott in the fold as well. But should Dermott reject the offer and fight for over a million on his next deal, it sadly will not be with the Leafs.
No. 6: William Nylander is not traded.
The member of the Leafs who gets the most unwarranted criticism, William Nylander provided some of the league’s best value in 2019-20, en route to a career year.
Pessimists will suggest it is impossible for Kyle Dubas to land a top-four defensemen without moving the 24-year-old, but those people are the same ones who said Dubas cannot sign Tavares. And he did. But with Tavares and Nylander inked, he cannot sign Matthews. And he did. But with those three signed, he will not be able to sign Marner. And he did.
With Brandon Pridham and Dubas in charge, two of the smartest executives in the NHL when it comes to managing the salary cap, it is a completely wrong move to doubt the duo. And why would one of the smartest front offices in the NHL give up on a player who provides this kind of value:
"He's soft and we will never win with him"
— leafsnationnews (@LNNinstagram) September 21, 2020
May I direct your attention to "10th in the NHL in forcing offensive zone turnovers", which translates to "in on the forecheck"... except instead of senselessly banging bodies, he is actually getting the puck and creating chances for.
No. 5: Johnsson out, Robertson in.
It has been widely reported the Leafs are going to look to upgrade their defense this offseason. In any move they make, it is hard to see how it is possible to do so without moving Andreas Johnsson. Some will say move Kerfoot, however, his added versatility in being able to play center or wing makes him more attractive to the Toronto Maple Leafs, in addition to his solid performance during the play-ins.
Johnsson had a tremendous season in 2018-19, playing primarily alongside Auston Matthews. Registering 20 goals and 43 points (stats; NHL.com), Johnsson proved he has the necessary tools to play in any team’s top six. Unfortunately, with Zach Hyman already locked into one of the Leafs top left-wing spots, Johnsson will be battling with Nick Robertson for the final place.
Robertson has shown he can handle important minutes, finding himself playing alongside John Tavares and William Nylander on the Leafs second line in his last game, not looking out of place at all. Furthermore, it is hard to not fantasize about how many goals Robertson and Matthews could score together. The rookie put up a whopping 55 goals for the Peterborough Petes this past season (stats; eliteprospects.com).
Robertson has earned the trust of head coach Sheldon Keefe, and with him making $2.6 million less than Johnsson, the rookie has made the former seventh-rounder expendable.
No. 4: Two Gritty Forwards will be signed.
Many people seem to think that the Toronto Maple Leafs need to become tougher to play against and President Brendan Shanahan recognizes this, or at least played along in his end of season press conference, where the Red Wings legend mentioned, “compete level and grit are areas that we might have to help our team a little bit with.”
As such, I predict Dubas is going to ink a couple of forwards who may not be considered “Dubas Types”. Players in the mold of Jake Muzzin or Kyle Clifford or Zach Hyman – three players he acquired, so maybe those are ‘Dubas style players’ after all.
With Joe Thornton already slated to come on board, a player like Johan Larsson could be inclined to join as well. Being tagged an absolute pain to play against, the defensive specialist put up very respectable metrics on a supremely awful Buffalo Sabres team.
Having started 61% of his draws in the defensive zone, Larsson still managed to register a positive Corsi-for percentage of 51%, which actually led all regular Sabres forwards (stats; evolving-hockey.com). Even more telling was his Corsi-for percentage relative to his teammates, coming in at 2.4. Take a look at Larrson’s most common matchups:
Adding Joe Thornton and a player similar to Johan Larsson will go a long way in changing their standing amongst their opposition.
No. 3: Frederik Gauthier and Denis Malgin are not re-signed.
Former first-round pick Frederik Gauthier has had an interesting career with the Leafs. Standing at 6’5”, 239 lbs, all the tools were there for the Goat to become a dominant force in the NHL. In his five years in the league, he has never recorded double-digit goals in a season, setting a career-high with seven this year. He has only reached double-digit points twice – the past two seasons – and has significantly fallen out of favour in Toronto (stats; NHL.com).
In Phase 3 of the NHL’s return to play, Gauthier won the Leafs fourth-line center role heading into the Columbus series. However, after game 1, Keefe decided the Goat did not bring enough to his line and opted for more skill going with Pierre Engvall.
The Quebec native never saw game action again, and as an RFA this offseason, it is likely he will never wear the Blue and White again. Likewise, Denis Malgin is also in a curious position. Personally, I was not as disappointed in Malgin’s play as others were. I thought he looked fine in his short stint with the Leafs and definitely would not be opposed to him inking a low-risk deal with Toronto.
However, I see him more likely opting to return to his hometown in Switzerland, where he can earn more money and contribute to a higher capacity than he would be able to with Toronto. Gauthier and Malgin both showed flashes of potential, but with neither one being able to play consistent hockey at all, it is unfortunate their time has run out with the Leafs.
No. 2: Pierre Engvall to the Third Line
Pierre Engvall produced a mixed bag of results in his rookie season with the Leafs. In his first 27 games, the 6”5, 214 lbs. Swede registered 7 goals and 14 points (stats; hockey-reference.com), good enough to earn himself a two-year, $1.25 million extension. However, the flame began to burn out in Engvall’s game as he only scored one goal in his final 21 games, which came against David Ayres.
In the NHL’s return to play, Engvall lost his spot in the Leafs bottom six to the aforementioned Frederik Gauthier. But Keefe recognized the need for more skill lower in the lineup opting to substitute the Giraffe in place of the Goat and boy he did not disappoint. Many nights it seemed as if the Clifford-Engvall-Spezza trio were the only ones who realized this was the playoffs.
Engvall has shown significant promise as a seventh-round pick in his limited NHL run. At just 24-years-old and with a cap hit under $2 million, he is exactly the type of player Dubas needs lower in the lineup. Add in the fact he has incredibly deceptive speed and amazing penalty-killing instincts, it would be wise for the Leafs to keep this kid around. I would expect Engvall to return motivated and ready prove himself even more in his sophomore season, rewarded by Keefe granting him Kapanen’s vacant position.
No. 1: Alex Pietrangelo signs with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
It is impossible to talk about the Leafs this offseason and not bring up Alex Pietrangelo. The crown jewel of the 2020 free agency class, all eyes are going to be on the Blues captain – possibly former captain – when October 9th hits. With Toronto looking to upgrade the right side of their defense, no player fits the bill better than the King City native.
Pietrangelo is a right-shooting, minute-eating, all-situations defensemen, with Stanley Cup experience and leadership qualities that do not come by very easily. The Pietrangelo-to-Toronto rumours have been around for a couple of seasons now but never seemed to gain any traction – until now.
Nobody expected Pietrangelo to actually reach the market. It has long been talked about how GM Doug Armstrong and Pietrangelo’s camp would eventually hammer out a deal and I can guarantee you the second this article is published the two sides will come to an agreement on a contract, but Darren Dreger sent the hockey world into a frenzy with an absolute bomb late night on September 22nd.
Sources say contract talks between the St Louis Blues and Blues captain, Alex Pietrangelo have broken off. The team has advised Pietrangelo to pursue unrestricted free agency.
— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) September 18, 2020
Now more then ever does the fit between the defensemen and his childhood team seem so perfect. Pietrangelo is from the area. The Leafs need a top-pairing, right-shooting defensemen.
The stars may be aligning at just the perfect time for the Leafs to finally solve their biggest hole that has alluded them for so many years. Pietrangelo is coming home this offseason.
The Toronto Maple Leafs Have a Massive Advantage in Free Agency. dark. Next
With just a few more days left until the official start of the 2020 offseason, Kyle Dubas’ biggest job lies ahead.