The Toronto Maple Leafs are an offensive power-house.
Under Mike Babock, many felt that the Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t make use of the talent on their roster enough. Once Sheldon Keefe took over, however, they seemed to play a style that better fit their roster.
Under Keefe, there were 8th overall despite playing half their games without their best defenseman, and half of those games also without their #2 defensemen. Under this time they out-performed their 5v5 goaltending ranking by 12 positions, which strongly indicates long-term success.
No one doubts the Leafs offensive prowess (which is why no one acted crazy at all when, ironically, they lost in the playoffs with excellent defense and goaltending, while their team’s #1 strength deserted them) but there is a way to improve it.
Take more penalties.
Sounds crazy, but I’m not even joking.
The NHL’s Lousy Officiating
In the NHL’s play-in round, refs were not shy about calling penalties. Except in the Leafs games. The Leafs Columbus series had something like half the penalties of the average series.
The Leafs had the #2 PP in the NHL under Keefe, but they don’t get near the opportunities the some other teams do.
This year Colorado led the NHL in PP opportunities, getting 46 more than the Leafs. The Avalanche only got one more total PP goal than Toronto did though. So imagine what the league’s second best offense and second best power-play could have done with another 46 opportunities?
Two years ago the Leafs were last in the NHL in PP Opportunities, and this year they were 19th. The Avs were first in both years. (stats from ESPN.com).
Two years ago, the Avs also took the most penalties, while the Leafs took the 30th most.
Once again, this year, the Leafs were one of the least penalized teams and got one of the least amounts of power plays. They had 193 power-plays, and were short-handed 190 times? What are the actual odds of that happening?
To find out why this is, just watch any random NHL game. You’ll notice that, except in unusual circumstances, the referees give teams the same amount of power-plays. This is because the NHL desperately wants teams to win 5v5 so it doesn’t look like they are impacting the games too much.
This is a logical fallacy, however. A ref not calling a deserved penalty is just giving the advantage to the wrong team, he isn’t making it more fair. If you get away with breaking the rules, that’s an advantage.
Even-up calls are the NHL’s biggest problem. The Leafs lead the NHL (or are in the upper echelon) in scoring chances, goals, and puck-possession. Logically this should get them more power-play opportunities, but it doesn’t.
In the NHL, the best way to get a power-play is to take a penalty first.
So in my estimation the Toronto Maple Leafs have two options: Lobby the league to end even-up calls, or intentionally play in a way that will lead to more special teams action.
Given the Leafs insane power-play roster, this would probably benefit them in the long-run. The NHL should be embarrassed by this, however. Call the game as it happens, and stop giving dirty teams an advantage by keeping power-plays even.