The Toronto Maple Leafs took a seventh round pick and turned him into an NHL first liner.
Andreas Johnsson, whose story is one of the best in the NHL, didn’t have the best season in 2019-20, mostly due to injury, but given his age, salary and career accomplishments, it wouldn’t make any sense for the Toronto Maple Leafs to trade him at this point.
At the same time, the Leafs have Zach Hyman, Nick Robertson and (potentially) Ilya Mikheyev at left wing, so trading one of them is a sensible approach if the team wants to acquire a defenseman.
Additionally, the same things that make it so that the Leafs shouldn’t sell low on Johnsson are the same reasons that other teams would want him. In the following paragraphs I’ll make a case for keeping Johnsson, then we’ll sit back and see what happens.
Toronto Maple Leafs and Andreas Johnsson
Johnsson has played in the NHL for three seasons, but one of those was just nine games, and the other one was this past year where he was limited to 43.
According to the @Jfresh player cards (based on data from Evolvinghockey.com) Johnsson was worth 1.7 Wins during his one full season. That is exceptional in a league where five wins will win you a Hart Trophy.
In that year, Johnssons scored at a rate of 2.49 points per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time, which is high-end first line production. This year, that rate dropped significantly but a) he only played about half a season, and b) he was worth 0.8 wins in that time, which is, again, excellent.
In his entire career, whenever Johnsson has been on the ice, the Leafs have been expected to win (expected goals percentage) while getting more puck possession, shots, scoring chances and dangerous scoring chances than their opponent. (stats naturalstattrick.com).
To recap: first line production at the age of 25, and the team consistently wins when he’s on the ice. He is signed to a more-than-reasonable 3.4 million cap-hit for the next three seasons. According to the Player Card information, he’s worth almost six million.
This isn’t a player you want to move after he’s been injured all season because you won’t get full value. Did I mention that Johnsson is among the chippiest, dirtiest, grittiest forwards the Leafs have? Sure, he isn’t going to fight or lay any thundering open-ice hits, but it appears to be universally agreed upon that the Leafs need to get harder to play against.
Andreas Johnsson is the hardest Leafs forward to play against, probably because he plays like a bit of a dirt bag, and I mean that in a complimentary way.
The Leafs probably aren’t going to trade Nick Robertson, and an injury might have made Mikheyev resignable, and that leaves just Zach Hyman. Now, the Leafs are on record as saying they don’t want to move him, but GMs lie a lot, and that is exactly what you’d say if you wanted to get your trade partner to raise his offer.
Hyman is entering the final year of his deal, he is heading towards 30 and doesn’t play the type of game that ages well in the NHL. Re-signing him would almost certainly result in the worst contract on the team, and he is not only a desirable player, he plays a position at which the team is perhaps the deepest. That’s three reasons to trade him right there.
If you poll Leafs nation, I am guessing Hyman beats Johnsson all day long in a popularity contest. But Andreas Johnsson is younger, cheaper, signed long term, and likely a better player. Johnsson is also significantly better defensively than Hyman. Hyman exploded offensively this year, but given his age and history, that is most likely a fluke.
The Toronto Maple Leafs should sell high on Hyman and avoid selling low on Johnsson. If you can put emotions aside and look at this objectively, there is no doubt that is the case.