The Toronto Maple Leafs, at least technically, failed to make the playoffs this year.
The results were, to say the least, disappointing. The Toronto Maple Leafs are stacked with talent, and when the season began – almost a year ago – they were one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup.
The question facing them this off-season is largely existential, because regardless of what any of us think, the team has a plan and will be sticking to it. You won’t be seeing coaching or managerial changes, and its highly unlikely that the team moves out any of their five core players (Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander and Rielly).
With all that in mind, should fans be upset about where things stand? Should they we be happy with the direction of the team?
How you feel about those questions seems pretty much to be based on how you feel about Leafs GM Kyle Dubas and his somewhat unorthodox approach to team building.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Just Basically Unlucky
My personal belief is that the Leafs have been so bad for so long that I almost don’t care about the short-term results at all. Sure, I’d like to have seen then win this year, but I also realize that had they done so, they’d be one of the youngest teams to win in NHL history, quite possibly the youngest.
What I like about the current Toronto Maple Leafs is their dedication to talent, their ability to unearth hidden gems (which more than counteracts their decision to concentrate cap spending on so few players), and their willingness to play the long game.
Just a reminder that the Leafs were ranked 19th in PDO this year while Colorado, Tampa, and Boston were ranked 1, 2,3.
— Editor in Leaf (@EditorinLeaf) September 11, 2020
From the time the Leafs hired Keefe to the end of the season, their on-ice team stats mirrored Tampas and were better than Boston's.
That is all.
I fully believe that given enough time, this group is going to turn out to be something really special. I know a lot of people don’t agree, but if you’re assessing the current Toronto Maple Leafs I think you need to keep the following in mind:
- With Sheldon Keefe and and even a somewhat healthy lineup, the Leafs won about 70% of their games and had one of the best records in hockey.
- The loss to Columbus featured two no-name goalies posting a 98% 5v5 save percentage over five games, something that has only ever happened a few times. The Leafs lost by one goal.
- The team didn’t play a single game with their fully healthy lineup last season.
- In games when Michael Hutchinson didn’t play this past season, the Toronto Maple Leafs record was only slightly worse than the Tampa Bay Lightning.
- The Leafs are highly unlikely to play 14 games next season with both of their two best defenseman out of the lineup at once.
- The Leafs were 19th in PDO. Teams that ares supposedly better than them, Colorado and Tampa, were ranked first and second.
- The Leafs, under Keefe, were 8th overall despite getting goaltending in the mid twenties. In almost all cases, teams that outperform their goaltending over a whole season get better, not worse.
A lot of people will call this a litany of excuses, but I would say those people are ignoring real information because it doesn’t fit their narrative – that the Leafs are somehow flawed and can’t win because they don’t grind enough, or they don’t pay enough attention to defense.
The Leafs could easily have won the Stanley Cup this year, they just didn’t. Statistically, they are one of the best teams in the NHL. The NHL is a league that is driven almost entirely by elite players, and the Leafs have more of them on their roster than any team in hockey.
Anomalies happen. Collectively, they make the team look worse than they are. This is a team on the verge of being historically good. Their success so far has been hidden by a series of individual events (two games seven losses, a cold offense vs Columbus, Michael Hutchinson, the coinciding injuries to Muzzin and Rielly) that obscure that fact.
The facts are all there. Available to anyone. But to point this out is to be biased. To be “the reason everyone hates Leafs fans.” etc. Cliche. Insult. Cliche. I’ve heard it all.
But these are the same people who saw the Leafs post a 93% save percentage in the playoffs and apparently think hitting three goal posts and getting shutout could have been prevented with just a few more body checks and a couple guys who “just want it more.”
Like I said, existential. Which, for most people, means checking facts at the door. This is a team that deserves the benefit of the doubt. They have a hall of fame captain and three 22 year-old superstars to build around.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are in excellent shape and only getting better.