Toronto Maple Leafs: How Matthews Stacks Up Against Former 1st Overall Picks

After being drafted first overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs, Auston Matthews wasted no time making his mark. He scored 40 in his rookie year and continues to elevate his play.

As the 2016 NHL Entry Draft started to come into focus, it was clear that Auston Matthews was undoubtedly going to be chosen with the number one pick. After the Toronto Maple Leafs won the draft lottery, all that was left was making it official.

Being the top selection in any draft comes with the pressure of immediate production. It’s a fair expectation, given the circumstances that led an athlete there in the first place. While some thrive under that presser, others simply fall short.

With that said, not every superstar starts their careers with the types of performances that eventually become their norm. It may take time for them to develop, grow, and mature into the players they work to become.

Although some who go first overall don’t end up making the impact that was once anticipated, many do go on to earn elite achievements. It just doesn’t always happen right away.

There is an unofficial standard for the type of success expected to be achieved by this segment of superstars. Matthews has already begun to show the Toronto Maple Leafs, their fans, and the rest of the league that his impressive start was no coincidence.

Entering his fifth season with the Toronto Maple Leafs, let’s take a look at Matthews’ first four compared to some of his opposing stars who also hold the title of top draft pick. How today’s greats began their careers may surprise you.

To keep things relevant, comparing stats within the same era of the game, we’ll assess prominent top forward selections from 2000 and onward. Included will be players who are still active.

For starters, here’s a refresher on what Matthews has already accumulated.

Auston Matthews (2016)

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table

Accumulating 40 goals in his first campaign, Auston Matthews went on to earn the Calder Memorial Trophy as rookie of the year. His efforts helped propel the re-building Toronto Maple Leafs into a playoff spot earlier than initially projected.

Toronto hasn’t finished a season with lower than a .579 winning percentage since Matthews joined their roster. They went from being a 69 point team the year prior, to earning 95 by the end of his first season.

Matthews is a dynamically offensive forward and elevates every play he finds himself in. As he develops his game further and gains strength along the way, he’ll inevitably begin to force his way into more action and leverage his untapped physicality.

Success has since been established as the only justifiable expectation for Toronto, with stars like Matthews leading their lineup. However, fans need to let the plan map out to reap its ultimate benefits.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the youngest teams in the league, alluding to the fact that they have plenty of time ahead of them to reach their desired destination. There is enough youth throughout their roster that they can maintain such a peak for years, as well.

Matthews is only getting started. He came close to his first 50 goal season this year, which he more than likely would have achieved had it not been for the shortened season.

First Four Years:

• Games Played: 282
• Goals: 158
• Assists: 127
• Points: 285
• Points Per Game: 1.01

First Stanley Cup: TBD

Alexander Ovechkin (2004)

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table

Alexander Ovechkin didn’t waste any early opportunities to prove his goal-scoring prowess. He netted 52 in his rookie year and averaged over 50 per season throughout his first four. Ovechkin was an All-Star and Calder Trophy winner in year one.

Obviously a superstar from the start, Ovechkin continued to pile up impressive numbers with each passing campaign. Yet, the rest of his Washington Capitals took some time to finally catch up as it took nearly 15 years for him to win his first Cup.

Ovechkin is now entering territory that select few will ever be able to reach. He has a legitimate opportunity to overtake Gretzky as the all-time leader in goals scored throughout NHL history.

First Four Years:

• Games Played: 324
• Goals: 219
• Assists: 201
• Points: 420
• Points Per Game: 1.30

First Stanley Cup: 2018

Sidney Crosby (2005)

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table

Touted as the next Wayne Gretzky, Sidney Crosby has displayed an unmatched work ethic throughout his career. Entering the league as an 18-year-old, he was able to put up over 100 points. Believe it or not, Crosby did not win rookie of the year.

As Crosby settled into the league, his impact became even more apparent. He hasn’t just been one to get his name on the scoresheet, he also lifts the play of all those around him. He continues to be a threat to every opponent that faces him.

Having won three Stanley Cups before the age of 30, Crosby has already secured his place amongst the league’s elite. He continues to push his Penguins to contend each and every year.

First Four Years:

• Games Played: 290
• Goals: 99
• Assists: 195
• Points: 397
• Points Per Game: 1.37

First Stanley Cup: 2009

John Tavares (2009)

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table

A definite first overall selection tier player, John Tavares is one of the more well-rounded and intelligent talents in the league. He isn’t known for sitting atop any scoring race lists but has quietly achieved around a point per game pace through 11 seasons.

What impresses most about Tavares is his consistency. He established that early in his professional career and has fine-tuned it throughout. He battles to steal possession and relies on some of the best puck control in the game to ensure he keeps it.

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed Tavares as a free agent in the 2018 offseason, as he chose to take his talents back home. The young stars that now surround him will help elevate his success to the next level.

First Four Years:

• Games Played: 291
• Goals: 112
• Assists: 137
• Points: 249
• Points Per Game: 0.86

First Stanley Cup: TBD

Taylor Hall (2010)

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table

Taylor Hall got caught up in one of the most scrutinized first overall selection debates in recent history. Ultimately, he was the top pick. Hall’s silky skill set makes it clear that he wants to continue proving that those who placed him at number one were correct in doing so.

As part of some less than competitive Edmonton Oilers lineups, which saw a few top picks throughout his tenure, it took leaving to finally get the best out of him. He’s had a bit of a rollercoaster career path but still illustrates talent like few others can.

Hall is set to be an unrestricted free agent as of the 2020 offseason. Whether he stays with the Arizona Coyotes or moves elsewhere, wherever he ends up will be all the better because of him.

First Four Years:

• Games Played: 246
• Goals: 92
• Assists: 133
• Points: 225
• Points Per Game: 0.91

First Stanley Cup: TBD

Nathan MacKinnon (2013)

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table

In what turned out to be a rather deep first round of the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, Nathan MacKinnon was able to do enough to capture his rookie year’s Calder Trophy. He has shown steady production and a unique level of creativity since the moment he went pro.

However, it’s only been in recent seasons that MacKinnon has really elevated to elite status. His production experienced a major uprise in his fifth season and it seems his increased impact won’t be slowing down any time soon.

As a 2020 Hart Memorial Trophy finalist, MacKinnon is now finally reaching the benchmarks of success he’s shown promise of for some time. He’ll only get better from here.

First Four Years:

• Games Played: 300
• Goals: 75
• Assists: 131
• Points: 206
• Points Per Game: 0.69

First Stanley Cup: TBD

Connor McDavid (2015)

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table

There hadn’t been the type of excitement that Connor McDavid demanded since Crosby went first overall a decade earlier. Although he wasn’t named rookie of the year, McDavid hasn’t stopped impressing everyone that gets a chance to witness him play.

McDavid is on a level all to himself. He accumulates the types of numbers and illustrates his importance so flawlessly that it’s now his norm. McDavid often doesn’t get the credit he should, because what he does game in and game out is now simply expected.

As he continues to rip through the rest of the league, en route to taking over a number of all-time lists, every hockey fan hopes McDavid can play on a team that helps him reach his ultimate goal.

First Four Years:

• Games Played: 287
• Goals: 128
• Assists: 244
• Points: 372
• Points Per Game: 1.30

First Stanley Cup: TBD

Putting Things Into Perspective

Matthews hasn’t yet won a Stanley Cup and neither did most of those on this list throughout their first years in the league. He is also one of only four from this selection to win the Calder Memorial Trophy as rookie of the year.

He’s also already hit the 40 goal mark twice, joining McDavid, Stamkos, and Ovechkin who were also able to accomplish the feat within their early years, too.

Clearly, Matthews is among the elite in this league. All being former first overall picks, they were separated from the pack to begin with. What they do with that designation is then up to each of them individually.

If it’s not yet glaringly obvious, the illustration here is that the trajectory of Matthews’ career is in line with today’s greats. He’s certainly done enough in his first four years to justify being 2016’s top pick.

As a recap, here’s how their points per game compare throughout their first four seasons:

• Ovechkin: 1.30 P/GP
• Crosby: 1.37 P/GP
• Kane: 0.96 P/GP
• Stamkos: 1.01 P/GP
• Tavares: 0.86 P/GP
• Hall: 0.91 P/GP
• MacKinnon: 0.69 P/GP
• McDavid: 1.30 P/GP
• Matthews: 1.01 P/GP

Having set a pace of 1.01 points per game, Matthews has already surpassed what some of these more accomplished superstars were able to achieve throughout their first few hundred games.

Seeing where the other noted athletes have taken their careers throughout their fifth years and beyond should present a promising picture of what to anticipate from Matthews. At the very least, he’s projected to ramp up his personal production.

Of course, team success and ultimately winning the Stanley Cup is every professional hockey player’s dream. Requiring prolific performers to lead the way, franchises that have players of Matthews’ stature are certainly at an advantage.

Simply stated, Matthews has already showcased the type of production that was to be expected. Yet, he’s also proving that there are higher levels he can take his game as he continues to bypass his own benchmarks year after year. (Stats from hockey-reference.com).

The moral of the story is simple. Matthews has already illustrated his elite-level talent and he’s only been in the league for four years. The Toronto Maple Leafs and its fans have a lot to look forward to, as he continues to climb towards his peak.