Reason for Optimism #4: New Guys and Flexibility
The Toronto Maple Leafs are making a mockery of the media’s analysis of their salary cap and team building strategy. Despite being told that they can’t maintain a roster consisting of four elite forwards, the Leafs continue to defy their critics at every turn.
There are two basic tenets that govern the Leafs strategy:
1. In the NHL elite players drive wins. Over a large sample size, only 10% of the NHL has a major impact on the games. This means that in a cap world, its not smart to spend money on mid-range players because cheap players can usually provide 90% of their contributions for 50-90% less money.
Thus bringing us to
2. Effective players are always available for free. Why give Kevin Hayes $8 million in free agency when you can sign Ilya Mikheyev for the league minimum? Why pay Jordan Staal when Pierre Engvall is only slightly worse for 66% less money?
This strategy has given the Leafs a ton of flexibility. They were able to replace Kasperi Kapanen with Alex Barabanov, save $2 million dollars, get their draft pick back and pick up a pretty good prospect too.
They were able to replace Travis Dermott, who needs a new contract but has excellent trade value, with Miko Lehtenon who will make the league minimum.
Finally, they’ll be able to replace Andreas Johnsson with 19 year old Nick Robertson. This gives them two trade chips and a potential cap savings of three or four million.
The team may end up better with Robertson, Lehtenon and Barabanov instead of Johnsson, Kapanen and Dermott but they for sure won’t be worse.