How the Toronto Maple Leafs Should Re-Build Their Blue-Line

The Toronto Maple Leafs desperately need to upgrade their blue-line.

If you’ve read one Toronto Maple Leafs article in the last two weeks, you’ve probably seen such a headline.

The narrative holds that the Leafs will never win unless they improve their blue-line with a hard hitting, preferably right handed, monster.

In the last 15 years, the most successful NHL teams have been the Penguins, Canucks, Capitals, Kings, Blackhawks, Bruins and Red Wings.   Can you name such a player, off the top of your head, on any of their rosters?

With the possible exception of the Kings, it actually seems like the Leafs plan is just to expand on what made the successful teams of the post-cap era work: mainly skill.

I theorize that the consternation about the Leafs defense just stems from the fact that they’re a pretty good team that hasn’t quite gotten over the top yet, and you’ve got to complain about something.

But let’s try to look at what the team actually has:

The Toronto Maple Leafs Blue-Line

Anchoring the blue-line is the 26 year old Morgan Rielly.  He played this entire season hurt, but was an absolute beast in the playoffs.  Against Columbus, Rielly had a 54% possession rating, the Leafs got 57% of the shots when he was on the ice, and 56% of both the expected goals, and dangerous chances. (Naturalstattrick.com).

Those are hyper-elite, super-star numbers.

In the previous two seasons to this one, Rielly was one of just three players in each year to post a +50% corsi-rating, and 50 points while facing top competition.

What he has accomplished without ever having a good partner is, frankly, incredible.

Jake Muzzin was recently re-signed, his value is doubted by no one.

Rounding out the left side is Rasmus Sandin.  He’s going to be a star player, and when healthy he will likely play in every game next year.

The right side is a bit more mysterious, but not as much as people think.

Travis Dermott may be re-signed and he may be traded. He’s a lefty, so it depends on what the Leafs think about him switching sides.  However, if they are intent on bringing in someone more physical, or if they want a right hander, he’s a likely candidate to move.

Justin Holl was a solid partner for Jake Muzzin and going from being benched to the top four is a great accomplishment.  In the playoffs, which included several games without Muzzin, the Leafs had at least a 55% share of possession, expected goals, scoring chances etc. with him on the ice.

Next is Mikko Lehtonen, who they signed from the KHL and who recently won the KHL’s award for best defenseman.  Now the NHL isn’t exactly overflowing with ex-KHL defenseman of the year, so it’s hard to know how good he is or will be.

Finally there is the team’s own right-handed home-grown prospect, Timothy Liljegren.  Liljegren is only 21 and though he wasn’t exactly great in the 10 NHL games he’s played in, he still has high potential.  He’s led an AHL team to a championship and been called one of the AHL’s best defenseman, and doing that at 19 and 20 is quite an accomplishment.  At worst, he’s an option.

The Options

Individually, all seven of the Leafs current defensemen are good players, and all player you’d like on your team or in your system.  The problem is, as a package of seven, are they good enough?

I’d say no.  Why would you ever be satisfied?  In a best-case scenario, the Leafs might actually have a truly great blue-line.  But is each of these guys going to have a career season next year?

No way.

So you need to improve, that is obvious.

Clearly, the three untouchables are Rielly, Muzzin and Sandin.

In my opinion, you want to acquire one more no-doubt top-four in-his-prime player that you can confidently plug in besides Rielly, and then out of the group of Dermott, Holl, Liljegren and Lehtenen, let them fight it out for the sixth and seventh jobs.  (Accounting for the fact that one of them at least probably gets traded).

There is a chance that any of those four players suddenly gets it and becomes a star.  But you can’t bank on it, so ideally you’d use the fact that Barabanov, Robertson and the emergence of Engvall will allow you to free up cap space using some combo of Hyman, Johnsson, Kapanen and Kerfoot (least likely to be moved in my opinion) to get that #2 guy.

The Toronto Maple Leafs blue-line is in excellent shape.  They could use one no-doubt elite player who will actually move the needle (not Demelo, not Gudas) but it doesn’t have to be Pietrangleo, who is not a realistic option.

Ultimately, the Leafs are pretty well set in the depth department.  In the NHL, elite players win you games, and the rest of the guys don’t matter too much.  If the Leafs third pairing is some kind of combo of Sandin, Liljegren, Dermott, Holl or whoever it isn’t going to matter much.

There is little upside on this team spending money to acquire mid-range defenders.  Most of the names that are being talked about aren’t significant upgrades on what the Leafs have.  A declining Gudas is actually quite a bit worse than Justin Holl, and his checking ability won’t make up for that fact.

The Leafs need another stud.  Hard to acquire, but other than that, they’re actually in really good shape.