How the Toronto Maple Leafs Stack Up Against the Competition (Part 4)
The Toronto Maple Leafs start their play-in series this weekend, along with 15 other teams.
On Sunday, we will finally get to see the Toronto Maple Leafs in action, as they will begin their series vs the Columbus Blue Jackets.
After breaking down the #11 and 12 seeds, then the #9 and 10 seeds and finally the #7 and 8 teams, we are at the cream of the crop for the play-in round.
Today we will take a look at the #5 and 6 seeds for the NHL Qualifiers to see where the Toronto Maple Leafs stand. Statistics are courtesy of Hockey Reference.
A Look at the Competition
(6) Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina played 68 regular-season games and amassed a total of 81 points. They were 15th in goals for and 9th in goals against in the NHL.
They converted on 22.3% of their power play opportunities, good for eighth in the league. The Canes also have the fourth-best penalty kill leaguewide. They are a dominant puck possession team, ranking second in Corsi For % and third in Fenwick For %. The Hurricanes are no joke. (Stats naturalstattrick.com).
The forward group has some elite top-end talent and rolls four lines deep. The top line of Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Andrei Svechnikov all recorded over 60 points this season.
Seasoned veterans like Jordan Staal and Justin Williams can help guide the young guns for a playoff run.
The defense corps is more balanced than elite, due to injuries to Dougie Hamilton and Brett Pesce.
Their ceiling is substantially higher with those players in the lineup. Even without them, the Canes have a durable top 6 led by Jaccob Slavin, Jake Gardiner and Sami Vatanen.
Peter Mrazek was solid but unspectacular in the regular-season. In 38 starts, Mrazek posted a .905 SV% and a 2.69 GAA. James Reimer is a reliable backup, but it will be Mrazek who gets the crease.
The Hurricanes pose a troublesome matchup for anyone, including their play-in opponent New York Rangers. They control the puck and have excellent special teams. Their postseason fate will likely come down to how Mrazek performs between the pipes.
(6) Nashville Predators
The Preds recorded 78 points in 69 games, good for a points percentage of .565. Nashville was 17th in goals scored this season and tied for 16th in goals allowed.
They had the 25th ranked power play at 17.3%. Their penalty kill was 29th in the NHL at 76.1%. While special teams was a major sore spot for Nashville, their puck possession game was strong, ranking seventh in Corsi For % and 5th in Fenwick For %.
Their forward group is quite underwhelming as no Predator cracked 50 points this season. Filip Forsberg did lead the way among forwards with 21 goals and 48 points. The talent is there, but Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen had disappointing seasons.
The Predators have one of the best top defensive pairings in Ryan Ellis and Roman Josi.
They lock down other teams’ top lines, and Josi led the team with 65 points. Ellis also contributed 38 points as well. After the top pairing, there is not much depth. Mattias Ekholm is reliable, but the defense falls off a cliff after that.
Goaltending has long been a strength for the Nashville Predators, but Pekka Rinne was not good this season.
He has a sub-.900 save percentage and a GAA over 3.00. Eventually, he lost the job to Juuse Saros, who was better but not exceptional. Saros posted a .914 SV% and 2.70 GAA. The handoff from Rinne to Saros will likely be solidified entirely during the play-ins.
The Predators look like a team ripe to be upset by the Coyotes in the Qualifiers. The usual strengths of the group are not there, and they have no pop upfront. I’m not expecting more than a win or two from them.
(5) Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pens notched 86 points in 69 regular-season games and just missed out on a top-four spot. Their 221 goals for was 13th in the NHL, while they ranked 11th in goals allowed at 196 total.
The power play has a ton of weapons but still only rated out as 16th in the league.
They ranked tenth in penalty kill, recording an 82.1 PK%. Puck possession was a strength of the Penguins, ranking 9th in Corsi For % and 6th in Fenwick For %.
The core forwards are ageing, but this is a strong and deep group. Evgeni Malkin led the way with 74 points in 55 games.
Meanwhile, Sidney Crosby recorded 47 points in 41 games. They have depth with Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Patric Hornqvist and Jared McCann. Very few teams can roll out a better top three lines.
The defense was a plus for the Penguins this season. Kris Letang chipped in 44 points to anchor the top pairing with Brian Dumoulin. They are deep on defense as well with John Marino, Marcus Petersson, Jack Johnson and Justin Schultz, all being more than capable.
The goaltending situation in Pittsburgh is interesting. There is still no word from Head Coach Mike Sullivan on who will be the starter.
Tristan Jarry had much better stats this season with a .921 SV% and 2.43 GAA. But Matt Murray has a Stanley Cup ring, despite a bumpy season with a sub-.900 save percentage.
The Penguins are experienced, talented and deep and could win the whole thing if they get some decent goaltending. I don’t think they will have any trouble dispatching the Montreal Canadiens in the play-in round.
(5) Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers enter the play-in round with 83 points in 71 games this season. The team ranked 12th in goals scored with 223. They tied with the Sabres for 20th in goals allowed with 215 total.
Their power play is abjectly terrifying. The team recorded a goal on 29.5% of their power play opportunities, which was easily the best in the league.
They also had the second-best penalty kill in the NHL, showing how big of a strength special teams are for them. They are a poor puck possession team, ranking 24th and 21st in Corsi For % and Fenwick For %, respectively.
It is no secret the Oilers have the best one-two punch at forward in the league. Leon Draisatl made a big step up this season and led the NHL with 110 points. Connor McDavid added 97 points in 64 games played. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a steady season with 61 points.
The Oilers are a mess on the defensive end. Darnell Burse and Oscar Klefbom are probably their best defensemen.
It is pretty ugly after that. Adam Larsson has been a disappointment since being traded for Taylor Hall. The third pairing of Kris Russell and Matt Benning is brutal.
Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen shared time almost evenly in the net, and neither were spectacular.
Both had save percentages north of .900 and goals-against averages below 3.00. Neither is going to steal many games, which is not great considering how much rubber they face.
Edmonton does not seem built for the playoffs. They don’t play defense and are not deep at all. If Chicago is undisciplined, the Oilers vaunted power play will make them pay.
Next. Expect Nylander to Be Great As Usual in Playoffs. dark
I’m predicting an upset in their play-in series. Patrick Kane should feast on the weak defense and average goaltending.