Goaltending the Big Question in Upcoming Toronto Maple Leafs Series

The Toronto Maple Leafs goaltending will be front and centre tomorrow when they begin their series against the Blue Jackets.

With a rough season for Frederik Andersen of the Toronto Maple Leafs and a question mark for who will start for the Columbus Blue Jackets, there are plenty of questions surrounding the goaltending going into this best of 5 series.

Goaltending can be the make or break of any team more than anything else.

Your team can have awful goaltending and sink to the bottom of the league like the San Jose Sharks this season, or have superb goaltending and somehow make it to the conference finals like Ottawa did in 2017.

The goaltender position is by far the most important and influential position.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Blue Jacets Goalie Analysis

Goaltending is almost like a pitcher in baseball or a quarterback in football, both are crucial in determining a team’s success.

Another fun fact about goaltending is it is by far the most unpredictable position in hockey.

Elvis Merzlinkin is a prime example of this, he had an eight-game stretch where he posted 5 shutouts, while besides that stretch of play, his numbers were nothing special. Not only that but Merzlinkins coming in the NHL and posting competent numbers was something few would have predicted.

Another way to illustrate this is, no goaltender has been above average according to GSAx for more than 4 consecutive seasons since probably Henrik Lundqvist in his prime.

Andersen and Gibson both had been among the top goaltenders for 3 seasons in a row (16-19), but that consistency went down the drain after this past season where they were far below average.

So let’s take a look at both the Blue Jackets and the Toronto Maple Leafs goaltending situations going into the playoffs.

Blue Jackets Goaltending

The Blue Jackets goaltending situation as mentioned is still in question, we are not certain whether it’ll be Elvis Merzlikins or Joonas Korpisalo starting game 1.

Both goaltenders have had some success and some bumpy paths this season.

With the Blue Jackets strong defensive game, we should expect their goaltenders to have a higher raw Sv%, so we will use Save Percentage Above Expected on Unblocked Shot Attempts (FSvX%).

This number is simply the FSv% (Sv% on unblocked shot attempts) subtracted by the xFSv% (expected Sv% based on shot location). (All stats Evolving Hockey).

This season 2019-2020 the Blue Jackets goaltenders put up the following numbers:
Joonas Korpisalo 37GP, -0.64 FSvX% (0.64 Sv% below expected on unblocked shot attempts)

Elvis Merzlikins 32GP, 0.04 FSvX% (0.040 SV% above expected on unblocked shot attempts)

Let’s begin with, the veteran goaltender who played more games for the Blue Jackets, Korpisalo.

Korpisalo was fairly below expected when you include the shot locations. Over the course of the season, he allowed roughly an extra 11 goals than what was expected which is not good at all.

Merzlikins was basically a middle of the pack goaltender based on how close he was to average. Over the course of the season, he had saved not even a full goal above average. So it’s safe to say that he is basically an average goaltender as his numbers were so close to expected.

Although if we dig deeper into Merzlikins season it’s clear that his numbers were significantly prompted by the strong streak he had as mentioned earlier. So for the bulk of the season, Merzlikins found himself as a below-average goaltender.

It is hard to be too sold on his abilities as he hasn’t been able to have a consistent course of play besides one month or so of excellence.

Since we have more than one season of NHL numbers for Korposalo we’ll take a look at his numbers from previous seasons.

If we are to take Korpisalos numbers based on the past 3 seasons they again turn out to be very poor. With consistently below-average numbers, Korpisalo doesn’t have an impressive NHL resume to his name and if he is in the net it appears he will be a weakness for the Blue Jackets.

I know Tortorella hasn’t revealed who will start in game 1, but I think there is more of an upside in starting Merzlikins as Korpisalo hasn’t been able to round out a fully successful season ever in his NHL career, whereas Merzlikins was able to have a respectable season.

Whether Korposalo or Merzlikins starts the position for the Blue Jackets doesn’t seem as if it is a strength. But if Merzlikins is the starter and can prove he is an average goaltender it shouldn’t be a downfall for the team as a either.

Both goalies have fairly easy workloads considering the team defense in front of them, so the Blue Jackets don’t have to rely on goaltending as much as other teams do such as Chicago or even the Leafs but it is still a crucial position.

Frederik Andersen

Andersen has been the Most Valuable Player for the Leafs since he has come into the Leafs organization.

From his first year with the Leafs (2016-2017) to his third (2018-2019), Andersen was without a doubt the Most Valuable Player for the franchise.

I can not emphasize how much he put the team on his back throughout those seasons.

Now this year 2019-2020, Andersen has been at the forefront of the Toronto maple Leafs struggles.

The only month this season where Andersen was good was during the month of November, and in fact, he was great over that stretch.

But other than November he was costing the team more than helping them which is something that we haven’t been used to with Freddie in the fold.

Let’s put Freddie’s numbers through the same lens as we did with the Blue Jackets goalies.

Frederik Andersen 52GP, -0.47 xFSvX% (0.47 Sv% below expected on unblocked shot attempts)

His numbers aren’t quite as bad as Korpisalos, however, they are still bad relative to expected.

Over the course of the season, Andersen allowed roughly an extra 10 goals than expected. This clearly isn’t what you would want to see from your starting goaltender.

Just like Korpisalo, it is important to take a look at previous season performance to identify trends.

Over the past 3 seasons, Andersen has still well above average numbers, even if we account for every season overall he still rounds out to an excellent goaltenders.

So that introduces the question:

What should be lean on to be more important, the 3-year averages, or the past season numbers?

I tend to go with the 3-year averages given how much goalies change year to year and how long of a layoff it has been since the season. But there is an argument for both, but a general rule in any discipline is to favor the larger sample to avoid sample bias and recency bias.

However, given the long layoff and lack of game flow there is also another question we need to ask ourselves:

Will Andersen start the playoffs bad just as he started in almost every October?

This is a valid point as there is some evidence that Andersen starts seasons slowly, but the argument is lacking substance because in general, most goalies start the season slow.

It will be interesting to see how the bulk of the goalies start out the return to play. I’ve heard former goalies suggest it takes at least 5 games to find a rhythm, where obviously no goalies will get 5 games in before the playoffs start.

There is no doubt that Andersen has the ability to be an excellent goaltender as he has shown in the past.

The hope is that age hasn’t gotten to him like it seems to have got to other goaltenders (hint: Florida paid him a lot of money last summer).

Andersen has the ability to come out and redeem himself from his poor season. He should be more rested and healthy than ever before.

He is the Leafs single biggest question mark going into this series.

Conclusion

It is hard to predict how well goalies will perform, harder than anything else in hockey.

This is why many teams always avoid drafting goalies in the first round, you don’t want to end up like the team that drafted Rick DiPietro first overall.

Columbus’ decision in who they will start in the playoffs will play a big role in this.

If Korpisalo starts, the Toronto Maple Leafs will probably have the advantage in net based on Korpisalos past performance.

However, if Merzlikins starts its a toss-up.

Do you bet on Andersen coming back to form, or do you bet on the rookie Merzlikins to be a capable NHL goaltender?

Either goaltender seems capable of putting up solid results, I could envision Andersen making more of a difference if he comes back to his prime form.

So if I were a betting man, I would bet on the large sample of consistently excellent performance from Andersen over the up and down rookie season of Merzlikins.

Either way, it will be interesting to see who finds the rhythm.

It will come down to whoever is in the zone at the moment.

One bad performance and your team will have to win 3 of 4 games, so any bad goal allowed can make a major difference.

With the long layoff, the question of who will come to perform is more dubious than ever before.