How the Toronto Maple Leafs Stack Up Against the Competition (Part 2)
The Toronto Maple Leafs start their play-in series this weekend, along with 15 other teams.
On Sunday, we will finally get to see the Toronto Maple Leafs in action, as they will begin their series vs the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Yesterday we looked at the #11 and 12 seeds in their respective conferences.
Those four teams do not look like strong bets to get very far.
For today’s breakdown, we move up the standings to the #9 and 10 seeds in the East and West to see how they look heading into the Qualifiers. Statistics are courtesy of Hockey Reference.
A Look at the Competition
(10) Florida Panthers
The Panthers finished the regular season with 78 points in 69 games played. They ranked 6th in the NHL with 228 goals for, while allowing 224 goals – 5th worst in the league.
They have a stable power play that scored 21.3% of the time, good for tenth in the NHL. Florida’s penalty kill was suspect at best, finishing 20th in the league. The Panthers are slightly below league average in most puck possession metrics.
Jonathan Huberdeau led a balanced scoring attack, notching 78 points while playing all 69 games for the Panthers. Behind him, Florida throws Aleksander Barkov, Mike Hoffman and Evgenii Dadonov at you, all of whom recorded 45 points or more this season.
The defense is a bit of a mess. While Keith Yandle and Aaron Ekblad provided substantial offense for the team, the back end as a whole was quite soft. Their second pairing of Riley Stillman and Anton Stralman ranked 27th in the league among defensive twos, according to Daily Faceoff.
The Panthers backed up the Brinks truck for goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky in the offseason, paying him $70 million over seven years to be their number one goalie. So far, it has not paid off. Bob recorded a 3.23 GAA and a .900 SV% this season. He will need to be much better if the Panthers have any desire to get to the playoffs. (stats naturalstattrick.com).
There is nothing that really wows me about this team and their play-in series against the Islanders is likely the least exciting of the eight matchups. They do have Head Coach Joel Quenneville, who, of course, guided the Chicago Blackhawks to 3 Stanley Cups in six years.
(10) Minnesota Wild
The Wild put up 77 points in 69 regular-season contests.
They were 14th in goals for with 218 and 22nd in goals allowed with 218. Their power play ranked 11th, and the penalty kill was 25th. They are a slightly below league average team in puck possession.
The team’s forwards are pretty unexciting. Kevin Fiala led the way with 54 points this year. Eric Staal, Zach Parise and Mats Zuccarello offer some veteran stability upfront.
Daily Faceoff does rank their fourth line of Ryan Donato, Mikko Koivu and Ryan Hartman 3rd in the NHL.
Minnesota has a strong and deep defensive unit. Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon man the top pairing. There is depth beyond them with Jonas Brodin, Matthew Dumba, Carson Soucy and Brad Hunt. Suter and Spurgeon chipped in a lot offensively. All three pairings are above league average when compared to similar defensive lines.
So how did a team with such reliable defensemen allow so many goals? Goaltending was a complete mess for the Wild this season. The usually reliable Devan Dubnyk struggled mightily, posting a 3.35 GAA to go with an .890 SV%. Alex Stalock took the majority of the starts and was an improvement, but this is still a significant concern for Minnesota.
This is not a team I can see going very far, and I anticipate they get bounced by Vancouver in the play-in round. The Wild did respond to a coaching change, going 8-4 down the stretch for new Head Coach Dean Evason.
(9) Columbus Blue Jackets
Now to the team that the Toronto Maple Leafs are playing in the Qualifiers, the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus finished with the same .579 points percentage as Toronto in the regular season. They were 27th in goals scored but 3rd in goals allowed.
Columbus has a weak power play that converted on just 16.4% of its chances this season. The penalty kill ranked 12th in the NHL this year. They are a league-average team in terms of puck possession.
The Blue Jackets don’t have many forwards that would scare opponents. Pierre-Luc Dubois led the team with 49 points this season. He is joined on the top line by Alexandre Texier and Oliver Bjorkstrand. You can expect them to see a lot of Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl, as the forwards get pretty thin after that.
The defense, on the other hand, is an incredible strength for Columbus. Zach Werenski and Seth Jones are arguably the best number one pairing in the entire league. David Savard and Ryan Murray provide great depth for the Jackets back end.
The team also is in good hands with two capable starting goalies in Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo. The two split time almost evenly during the regular season. Merzlikins was slightly better with a 2.35 GAA and .923 SV%. He also recorded five shutouts this season.
Columbus is going to give the Toronto Maple Leafs all they can handle in their play-in series. They play a style designed to slow down Toronto’s high powered offense. Head Coach John Tortorella has done more with less in the past and could push the Blue Jackets into the playoffs.
(9) Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg put up 80 points in 71 regular-season games. Their 213 goals for was good for 16th in the NHL, and they allowed the 12th least amount of goals at 201. The Jets have the 15th ranked power play in the league and the 22nd rated penalty kill. They are a well below-average team in terms of puck possession.
Winnipeg boasts a collection of high-end talent at forward.
Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele led the team with 73 points apiece. Blake Wheeler, Patrick Laine and Nikolaj Ehlers recorded at least 58 points each this season. The Jets’ third and fourth lines are below league average, however.
The Jets defense is not good.
Neal Pionk provided some offensive help with 45 points this season. There are no standouts on the blueline. Josh Morrissey and Dylan Demelo were one of the worst top pairings in the league this year.
Connor Hellebuyck saved the team a lot this year and is just the kind of goalie who can steal a series. He posted a gaudy .922 SV% this season to go with a 2.57 GAA. Hellebuyck also recorded six shutouts in 56 starts this season.
Next. Leafs Defensemen and Goalie Regular Season Player Grades. dark
Winnipeg can go toe to toe with their play-in opponent Calgary. Hellebuyck is undoubtedly capable of stealing a game or two, and the top two lines can match goals with almost anyone. I’m not sure they can go very far in the playoffs, though, if they get there.