How the Toronto Maple Leafs Stack Up Against the Competition (Part 1)
The Toronto Maple Leafs start their play-in series this weekend, along with 15 other teams.
ON Sunday, we will finally get to see the Toronto Maple Leafs in action, as they will begin their series vs the Columbus Blue Jackets.
How does their roster compare to the other teams involved? The qualifier format is exciting but the season will be over very quickly for the losing teams.
Today we will take a look at the #11 and 12 seeds for the NHL Qualifiers to see where the Toronto Maple Leafs stand. Statistics are courtesy of Hockey Reference.
A Look at the Competition
(12) Montreal Canadiens
The Habs come into the qualifiers with the lowest points percentage, gathering 71 points in 71 games during the regular season. This seems like a reasonable cutoff for teams to make the play-in round.
Montreal had a league-average 208 goals scored and a below-average 220 goals against. Their power play and penalty kill were both below the league average. They are a good puck control team and shoot the puck a lot.
The scariest member of their team is goaltender Carey Price. Despite a pedestrian regular season in which Price recorded a .909 SV% and 2.79 GAA, he can get hot and steal a series.
The Habs don’t have anyone at forward who scares you too much. Tomas Tatar led the team with 61 points, which tells you everything you need to know.
On defence, Shea Weber leads a solid Top Four, including Ben Chiarot, Jeff Petry and Victor Mete. Their third pairing of Xavier Ouellet and Christian Folin leaves a lot to be desired.
I don’t really like Montreal’s chances of getting by Pittsburgh in the Qualifier, let alone making a run deep into the playoffs. Price would have to channel 2014-15 and be superhuman.
(12) Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago squeezed into the final spot in the West Qualifiers, despite finishing dead last in their division. They can thank the awful seasons of the California trio for their shot.
Looking into their team stats, nothing jumps off the page at you. They scored 208 goals while allowing 214. Chicago’s power play ranked 28th in the NHL, while their penalty kill was 9th. The Hawks were 22nd and 24th in Corsi For % and Fenwick For %, two metrics of puck possession.
The one player on the team that opponents will have to be constantly aware of is Patrick Kane. He leads a very strong Top 9 forward group that includes Jonathan Toews, Dominik Kubalik and Alex DeBrincat, among others. Kane led the team with 84 points and 33 goals during the regular season.
The defense leaves me feeling very cold. There is nobody that is a threat offensively and according to Daily Faceoff, their top 3 pairings were all below average against similar NHL pairings.
Corey Crawford will be the starter in net for Chicago. He posted a very respectable .917 SV% but his GAA was 2.77, thanks to his defense allowing target practice night after night.
Chicago feels less likely for me to get very far than even Montreal. Patrick Kane would have to go on a prodigious heater, or the Oilers would have to tense up at the wrong time in their Qualifier.
(11) New York Rangers
The New York Rangers are the East’s #11 seed and draw a tough matchup versus the Hurricanes in the play-in round. It should be noted that the Rangers beat the Hurricanes in regulation in all four of their regular-season matchups.
New York can light the lamp. They were 5th in the NHL in goals for during the regular season. Where they struggled was goals allowed, as they gave up the eighth-most in the NHL. The Rangers had the 7th ranked power play and 23rd rated penalty kill. They are a terrible puck possession team, ranking 28th in the league in both Corsi For % and Fenwick For %.
The strength of this team is in their top-six forwards. Artemi Panarin led the team with 95 points, while Mika Zibanejad tallied 41 goals. Ryan Strome, Pavel Buchnevich and Chris Kreider provide nice scoring depth. After the first two lines, the Rangers forwards fall off a cliff.
Brendan Smith and Jacob Trouba formed one of the worst number one defensive pairings in the NHL. All is not lost on the back end however as Adam Fox and Anthony DeAngelo are some of the most promising young defensemen in the league. The two combined for 95 points and really help the power play click.
As of this writing, it is still not known who will be starting in net. It would appear it will be 24-year old Igor Shesterkin over King Henrik Lundqvist. Shesterkin posted a gaudy .932 save percentage in 12 starts this season, but is completely untested in the playoffs.
The play-in series with Carolina is one of the most fascinating for me. I could see it going either way. New York certainly has the firepower to keep up with any team, but will the defence and an unproven goaltender be able to hold up in playoff conditions?
(11) Arizona Coyotes
Arizona will draw the Nashville Predators in their Qualifier series, after putting up 74 points during the regular season. The team had a massive distraction days before the resumption of play when an absolutely bizarre story broke of GM John Chayka quitting on the team. How that relates to playing on the ice remains to be seen, but the timing was most unwelcome for the Coyotes.
The team ranked 22nd in goals for but 3rd in goals against and relies heavily on goaltending. The had the 18th ranked power play in the NHL this year and the fifth-ranked penalty kill. The team was 23rd in Corsi For %, an indication that they do not possess the puck well.
The biggest strength of the Coyotes is in the net. Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta split starts almost evenly (due to Kuemper’s injury) and both posted save percentages over .920. After a blazing start to the season for Kuemper, an injury forced Raanta in and he kept the ship sailing smoothly. Now healthy, the crease will be Kuemper’s when they drop the puck on Sunday.
The team’s defense is strong and deep led by Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Their number two pairing of Jakob Chychrun and Alex Goligoski would be a lot of team’s top duo.
Taylor Hall is the most dangerous forward on the team after recording 27 points in 35 games. After that, the top end talent dries out but Connor Garland, Phil Kessel, Nick Schmaltz and Clayton Keller provide some nice depth. According to Daily Faceoff, the Coyotes have the best third line in the league.
Next. Leafs Top 10 Best Prospects. dark
Due to the strong goaltending and deep defense, this is not a team I would want to be playing in the play-in round. Will they be able to score enough goals? Will the sudden departure of GM John Chayka affect them on the ice? We get to find out on Sunday and I could not be more excited.