The Toronto Maple Leafs will take on the Columbus Blue Jackets in the qualifying round for the Stanley Cup playoffs, beginning on Sunday, August 2nd.
What are the main reasons that the Toronto Maple Leafs will win this play-in round? And what about Columbus – what has to happen for them to take down the Buds?
Toronto is vastly more talented up front, but Columbus may be a stronger defensive team. Goaltending is going to be vital, but what else is new? The teams split the season series but those two games were in October – nine months and one pandemic ago.
Toronto was 3rd in goals for but 27th in goals against. Meanwhile, Columbus ranked 3rd in goals against but 28th in goals for. This will be a battle of contrasting styles and strengths.(Hockey Reference).
Here are the 5 main reasons why Toronto will win:
Forward Depth
It is no secret that Toronto is loaded at forward with some seriously high-end talent. They also are incredibly deep.
They will put out a Top 6 that includes Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares and Mitch Marner. Zach Hyman and everyone’s favourite soup fan, Ilya Mikheyev will round out the top two lines.
Beyond that, they still can throw Alexander Kerfoot, Kasperi Kapanen and OHL phenom Nick Robertson at you. They may even get Andreas Johnsson back at some point.
The fourth line leaves something to be desired but it has some veteran experience in Jason Spezza, Kyle Clifford and either Pierre Engvall or Frederik Gauthier.
Elite Talent
As mentioned, the Toronto Maple Leafs four best forwards are as strong as anyone in the NHL. According to Daily Faceoff, the Leafs first line rated 8th in the NHL, while the second line ranked 4th. That is going to be a lot of talent for Columbus to deal with.
Power Play
The Toronto Maple Leafs ranked 6th in the NHL in Power Play conversions, at a 23.08% clip.
They only had 195 power plays, however, which ranked 23rd in the NHL. If they get the opportunities, they are going to overwhelm the Blue Jackets.
That is a big if though, as Columbus allowed the fewest power plays in the entire league. If the CBJ’s get sloppy and take a lot of penalties, they are going to be behind early and often.
Faceoff Advantage
Toronto won 52.5% of their faceoffs during the regular season, compared to Columbus’ 48.5%. Paired together with the power play proficiency, this may be a big advantage for the Buds.
Tavares, Matthews, Gauthier and Spezza all notched faceoff wins north of 54%. In contrast, Boone Jenner was the only Blue Jacket to win over 50% of his draws among players that took at least 100 faceoffs.
Puck Possession
Using some advanced statistics for puck possession, the Toronto Maple Leafs ranked 6th in the league in Corsi For % at 5 on 5. This is a measure of how much the team controls the puck. Their CF% was 52.1%, compared to Columbus at 49.1%. This put the Blue Jackets below average, at 19th in the NHL.
In summary, the Leafs are better at controlling the puck, winning faceoffs and scoring on the power play. They have more elite talent and depth at forward than Columbus. Notice I did not mention their defense or goaltending though.
These are the 5 reasons why Columbus will win:
Goaltending
The Blue Jackets may not yet know who their starter will be, but they boast two strong options in the crease.
During the regular season, Elvis Merzlikins had the better statistical resume, posting a 2.35 goals-against-average and .923 save percentage. He also had 5 shutouts in 31 starts. That is terrifying heading into a best of five series.
They could also go with Joonas Korpisalo, who was no slouch in his 35 starts this season. He had a 2.60 GAA and .911 SV%, which makes him formidable in net as well. With an exceptional defense in front of them, whichever goalie starts will have a chance to steal the series.
Physical Play
The Blue Jackets are relentlessly physical. As a team, they had 1436 hits this season or 20.5 per game. The Leafs, meanwhile, had less than 17 hits per game. This is one way of slowing down Toronto’s vaunted attack.
As mentioned above, they are extremely physical while also not taking penalties. A team that hits that much but had the fewest penalties in the league is a nightmare for Toronto.
Defensive Prowess
Columbus is exceptionally strong defensively, allowing the 3rd fewest goals in the NHL this year.
They have the best top d-line in the NHL in Zach Werenski and Seth Jones, according to Daily Faceoff. Beyond that, they have depth with Vladislav Gavrikov, David Savard, Dean Kukan and former #2 overall pick Ryan Murray.
They suit their style to match the strong defensive identity. As a team, the Jackets blocked 1060 shots this season. Toronto, on the other hand, blocked only 903. Columbus is not afraid to do the dirty work and win games ugly.
Coaching
Head coach John Tortorella has a Stanley Cup and two Jack Adams awards on his resume. He may well win a third this season after guiding the Blue Jackets to an 81 point season after losing Sergei Bobrovsky, Matt Duchene and Artemi Panarin in free agency.
Torts has a career 655-515-157 record in the regular season. His teams have made deep runs before but he is only 52-58 in the playoffs.
Compared to Leafs Head Coach Sheldon Keefe, who is making his postseason debut, Tortorella has a wide advantage in playoff experience.
Upset History
Last season, the Blue Jackets chocked the world in not only beating but sweeping the President’s Trophy-winning Tampa Bay Lightning. On paper, it looked like Tampa Bay would have no trouble with Columbus, after finishing 30 points higher in the regular season.
That’s why games are not played on paper. Tampa Bay scored 10 goals in the whole series, after leading the NHL in scoring during the regular season. They were absolutely suffocated by Columbus.
As mentioned, the Blue Jackets lost a lot of star power from last season but they are much more closely matched to this Toronto team. It would still be an upset, but not nearly of the same magnitude as last year’s stunner.
My Pick: Leafs over Blue Jackets in 5 Games