Toronto Maple Leafs: Contenders and Odds for the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs

The Toronto Maple Leafs are just days away from resuming their season.

The long wait is nearly over. The Toronto Maple Leafs (and the rest of the NHL) will resume on August 1st with an unprecedented 24 team tournament to see who will hoist the Stanley Cup.

So who are the contenders for the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs?

In such a wide-open formula, anyone could conceivably get hot and go on a run.  With such a lengthy amount of time off, will the best teams be as sharp still?

How will the top teams in each conference fare without the qualifying round?  Will the grind of the opening Qualifier round be too much for a team to reel off 5 straight series?  If all goes according to plan, all of our questions will be answered and it will be one heck of a ride.  Odds data is courtesy of The Action Network.

The Longshots

Chicago Blackhawks (75-1), Montreal Canadiens (70-1),  Columbus Blue Jackets (60-1), Florida Panthers (55-1), Winnipeg Jets (50-1), Arizona Coyotes (45-1), New York Islanders (43-1), Minnesota Wild (43-1),   Carolina Hurricanes (40-1), Nashville Predators (40-1), New York Rangers (40-1),

This group is full of teams that were outside the playoffs when the season was halted in March, as well as two teams not getting a lot of love from oddsmakers. Carolina and Nashville were both sixth in their respective conferences when the season was stopped.

The Hurricanes are interesting in that they had a +29 goal differential in the regular season.  However, they lost all four matchups to the Rangers in the regular season and may have a difficult time getting out of the qualifiers.

There has been a lot of chatter about whether Montreal could go on a run with Carey Price in the net.  But they draw a tough matchup in Pittsburgh, who has seen a couple of long runs to titles before.  The Pens took the regular-season matchups 2 to 1.  There is some concern in Pittsburgh though over Sidney Crosby’s mysterious absence.

The Rangers are a really interesting team in these playoffs.  They boast two elite talents upfront in Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad and owned the Canes in the regular season, as mentioned.  The question for them comes in the net.  Will it be King Henrik, Alexandar Georgiev or Igor Shesterkin?  If one of them can get hot, look out for the Rangers.

Chicago was sitting 12th in the Western Conference when play was stopped. So how do they have the 12th best odds of any NHL team?  Veteran leadership, past track record in the playoffs and a dude named Patrick Kane are why.  Getting 75-1 on Patrick Kane seems like a good longshot.

The Canadian Teams Cluster

Calgary Flames (37-1), Vancouver Canucks (35-1),  Toronto Maple Leafs (25-1), Edmonton Oilers (23-1)

Calgary has a tough qualifying round matchup with a battle-tested Jets team.  I’m not as high on them as the oddsmakers.  The team was a minus-5 in goal differential during the regular season.  They have a deep group of forwards but the goaltending tandem of David Rittich and Cam Talbot leaves me feeling pretty cold.

The Canucks will draw the Minnesota Wild in the Qualifiers.

The Wild took two of three regular-season games over the Canucks.  Vancouver is a much more talented team and should be able to get by Minnesota.

After that, I don’t like their chances all that much this season.  With young stars in Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser, their time is coming.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have about as broad a range of outcomes as any team in the NHL.

I could see them getting massive production upfront and having Frederik Andersen stand on his head.  I could also see them get bullied and go out with a whimper against Columbus in the qualifiers.

Toronto split the season series against the Blue Jackets.  Coach John Tortorella will try to punish the Leafs forwards with muscle and a defensive-minded approach.   The Jackets cannot go goal for goal with Toronto, as they had the lowest goals of any team in the tournament.

Ultimately, I think that makes the difference in the qualifying round. After that, the Buds have a high ceiling but going from playing Columbus to Boston or Tampa Bay is a big difference.  They may need contributions from some lesser lights to make a long run.

Edmonton’s qualifying series against Chicago will be fascinating to watch.  The veterans versus the young guns.  Chicago took 2 out of 3 in the regular season and the series could very well go five games.  You have to think whoever comes out of this matchup will be a tough out the rest of the way

Solid Veteran Teams

Dallas Stars (15-1), Pittsburgh Penguins (15-1)

Dallas is getting no respect from the oddsmakers heading into the tournament.

They will not be playing in the qualifying round as they sat fourth in the West at the end of the regular season.

Their +3 regular-season goal differential pales in comparison to the other teams in the top eight.  Can Ben Bishop get hot and do they have enough firepower after Tyler Seguin?  I’m lukewarm on the Stars as well and think they have a good shot at getting bounced in the first round.

The Penguins have the firepower, pedigree and past playoff success to win the whole tournament.

So it is no surprise to see them with these odds.  If Sidney Crosby is OK to play, they have all the pieces you need to win a Cup.

They were a +28 in goal differential in the regular season and are definitely strong favourites to bounce Montreal in the qualifying round.  They seem like the best bet of the qualifying round teams to make a five series run.

The Past Two Stanley Cup Champions

St. Louis Blues (11-1), Washington Capitals (10-1)

This is where the value is hanging out in these odds. Both of these teams probably benefitted from the time off and have obviously shown recently that they can take down the whole thing.

Washington can score with any team in the NHL.

Their biggest concern has to be the number of goals they let in.  Braden Holtby has not been the guy that won the Cup two seasons and Ilya Samsonov does not appear ready for primetime just yet.  If playoff Holtby shows up, then watch out.  he boasts a career .928 save percentage and 2.09 goals-against average in 88 playoff starts.

St. Louis was the top team in the West when the season ended so this seems like a value.  Oh yeah, they also are defending their Stanley Cup.

Their +32 goal differential was fifth in the league and they are built for the grind of the playoffs.  They can score and have an excellent defence corps and goaltender in Jordan Binnington.  You could do a lot worse than betting on these guys again.

The Dangerous Surprises

Philadelphia Flyers (10.5-1), Colorado Avalanche (8-1)

The Flyers surprised a lot of people with their strong regular season.  It has garnered Head Coach Alain Vigneault with a Jack Adams finalist nomination.

Considering they finished 11th in the East in 2018-19, this was a big turnaround year.  The question is whether or not they are ready for a sustained playoff run.

They have some seasoned veterans in Claude Giroud and Jakub Voracek to go along with young stars Travis Konecny and Sean Couturier.  Their success will likely come down to 21-year-old goaltender Carter Hart.  While he is certainly the franchise goalie for years to come, Hart has yet to play in the postseason.

The Avs boast the third-best goal differential in the  NHL at +46.  They have terrifying skaters in Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar.

Much like the Flyers, the question for them come in between the pipes.  Philipp Grubauer and Pavel Francouz split the regular season starts almost dead even.

One of them is going to have to step up and run with the crease if the team wants to go deep.  The Avs still feel a year away to me but they will be a dangerous team for years to come in the West.

The Odds-on Favourites

Vegas Golden Knights (8-1), Boston Bruins (6.25-1), Tampa Bay Lightning (6-1)

We have now reached the cream of the crop in the NHL.  Three teams that have everything you need to win Lord Stanley. They are all talented, deep and have stable chemistry.

Vegas surprised every single person in the hockey world making to the Stanley Cup Finals in the inaugural season of 2018-19.

They are loaded to make another run this season. The team was third out west when the season ended.

Vegas’ veterans must have enjoyed the extra time off to recharge before the playoff grind.  They have the ultimate X-Factor in Marc-Andre Fleury who is ageing but has proven his playoff mettle.  Nothing is more important than strong goaltending in the playoffs and Fleury provides a proven track record.  Vegas will be a very tough out for the rest of the teams.

The Bruins seem to be in the mix year in and year out.

With their steady stable of veteran stars in Tuukaa Rask, Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, the B’s can go toe to toe with anyone.

They also have superstar winger David Pastrnak, who put up 48 goals and 95 points this season.  Boston enters the playoffs as the best team in the regular season and were already at 100 points in March when the season was stopped.

They are as talented and deep as any team out there and are a legitimate threat to win the Cup.

You have to wonder if Tampa Bay has shaken off the mental drain of being swept as the number one seed in the first round last year.

Few teams have as much high-end talent or depth as Tampa Bay.  The Lightning were an absurd +50 in goal differential during the regular season.

They can throw four lines at you and have exceptional depth on the back end.  Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy will have to improve on a career 2.83 goals-against average in the playoffs if the Lightning have any designs on winning it all.

My Stanley Cup Pick: Bruins over Blues in 7 games