Toronto Maple Leafs Forward Grades 2019-20 Regular Season

The Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t have the season we expected.

Coming into the season, I think most people figured that the Toronto Maple Leafs would – at the very least – take a large step towards contending for the Stanley Cup.

Instead, the Leafs had a terrible October and November, culminating in the firing of Mike Babock, and Sheldon Keeef taking over the team on November 21st.

The Leafs took to Keefe’s new system like ducks to water, and only injuries prevented them from fully overcoming their terrible start to the season.

Still, there were signs that the Leafs were among the NHL’s best teams, despite the rocky, up and down season.

They finished 8th overall from the day Keefe was hired to the day the league shut down in March.

They did that despite having a 5v5 save percentage that ranked in the bottom third of the league.  (Teams that finish higher in the standings than their 5v5 save percentage almost always get better results eventually).

And they posted team stats that were roughly on the same level as the Tampa Bay Lightning, and slightly better than the Boston Bruins –  you just cant help it if you don’t get the goaltending, and the Leafs didn’t.

Still with the most elite players in the league, with one of the two best forwards, and the best centre depth in hockey, the Leafs are on the right track.

They will soon be adding two potentially elite players that can help while being paid on entry-level contracts (Sandin and Robertson) and will look to win the Stanley Cup later this summer.

But for now, let’s do some player grades.

Alex Kerfoot

Alex Kerfoot was acquired from the Avalanche last summer in a trade that I would say worked out pretty good for the Leafs, despite the opposite public perception.

Nazem Kadri had an awesome year in Colorado, and since he’s an awesome player, who would expect anything else?

The thing is though, Kadri’s best strength is scoring, and he’s a centre.  On the Leafs he can’t get the touches to truly take advantage of his scoring talent, so it makes sense to swap him for a player who provides value in a different way.

Coming off a year in which he was statistically the best defensive player in the NHL, Kerfoot was the Leafs best defensive forward by a mile.  He was versatile, and made a great LW on a line with Tavares, while also being arguably the NHL’s best 3rd line centre as well.

Kerfoot was worth 1.4 WAR (WAR Stats and contract info from @jfresh player cards) and scored at the same 5v5 rate as John Tavares on a per minute basis. (All other stats from naturalstattrick.com).

Kerfoot may not have scored as much as Kadri, but he provided the Leafs with defense and versatility, two areas of weakness.  He is also younger and much cheaper.

Kerfoot finished with 9 goals, 28 points in 65 games.  He had a 53% CF and a 52% Expected goals rating (all stats naturalstattrick.com).

Andreas Johnsson

Johnsson’s 8 goals and 21 points in 43 games this year were seen as a bit of a disappointment.

Still just 25 and signed to a very reasonable contract, Toronto Maple Leafs fans tend to underrate Johnsson and should not be so quick to see him traded.

The former seventh rounder is the Leafs best left winger (yes, even better than Hyman and Mikheyev) and one of the only gritty sandpaper types on the team.

Two seasons ago he was worth an astounding 3.8 WAR and despite injuries was still worth 0.8 this year.  Johnsson scored at a first line rate last year, and while he didn’t accomplish that this year, he still posted a 53% Corsi and a positive expected goals rating.

Of all Leafs regulars, Johnsson had the lowest on-ice shooting percentage, partially explaining his low totals.

A line of Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander was the Leafs most common when Johnsson was healthy, and should once again be going forward.

Potentially, Johnsson could be a 30 goal point-per-game player, so I hope the Leafs find a way to retain him.   It is a big blow that he won’t be ready to play in the Playoffs.

Ilya Mikheyev

No One Could have foreseen the impact that Ilya Mikheyev would have on the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Signed for around the league minimum on a one-year contract after leaving the KHL, Mikheyev was touted as one of the best hockey players not in the NHL, but still, you never know what you’re going to get.

Eight goals and 23 points in 39 games before a horrific laceration from a skate ended his season.  The production was good, but doesn’t tell the whole story.

Mikheyev posted a 53% CF, and a 53% expected goals rating, while being worth an incredible 2.3 WAR.

The Toronto Maple Leafs will hopefully sign Mikheyev to an extension, but the question is how much do you want to pay for auxiliary forwards at this point?

If the Leafs can get him back at anything below $2 million, it would be great.  If he is looking for money money or a longer term, the Leafs may have to turn to Nick Robertson and Alex Barabanov.

The injury was unfortunate, but Mikheyev, by being worth over 2 wins provided amazing value and was a great addition to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Auston Matthews

The Toronto Maple Leafs best player was well on his way to a career season when the NHL shutdown in March.

Matthews – who is the best 5v5 goal scorer in the NHL since he entered the league – once again led the NHL in 5v5 goals.

He only barely failed to win his first ever Rocket Richard Trophy, and had the season gone on for its full length, he probably would have.

Matthews posted insane 5v5 statistics and you can make a very good case that he should be the NHL’s MVP since he was the NHL’s best 5v5 player.

47 goals, and 80 points in 70 games.

54% Corsi.

The Leafs got 55% of the shots when Matthews was on the ice, 56% of the scoring chances, 56% of the dangerous chances, plus 59% of the goals and 56% of the expected goals.

The guy is a machine.  He is also the NHL’s second best player after Connor McDavid and the best player in Toronto Maple Leafs franchise history.  With another 12 games on the schedule, Matthews would have shattered the Leafs single season goal record, and 60 goals wasn’t completely out of the question.

Freddie Gauthier

Hard to believe, but Gauthier has now skated in parts of five seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

After being one of the NHL’s worst players in 2017-18 (costing the team almost 4 WAR) Gauthier rebounded last year to to provide positive value (almost 1 WAR).

This year, Gauthier was the perfect replacement player – costing his team nothing, but gaining nothing either.

Frankly, the Leafs can do better and should be dressing other players.  There isn’t really any reason for the Leafs to dress Gauthier when they’ve got Kenny Agostino, Nic Petan and Adam Brooks in the NHL.

Gauther has had a good run, he’s turned out better than almost anyone expected, but he provides no offense, barely any defense and almost anyone they use would be likely to provide more.

Along with Kasperi Kapanen, Gauthier was one of the only Toronto Maple Leafs players to provide negative expected goals this year.

Jason Spezza

Spezza was a revelation this year.

When he was signed, people were like ‘OK I don’t mind this,’ and then when Babcock made him a healthy scratch to start the year, it seemed like maybe even that was too much hype.

But then it turned out that Babcock didn’t know what the hell he was doing.

Spezza had an amazing year, offering the Leafs great second unit Power Play production, with first-line-level production from the 4th line at 5v5.

Spezza was worth an impressive 1.8 Wins (which is better than 76% of players).  He scored at an almost 2 points per 60 minutes of ice time clip.

You couldn’t ask for a better league minimum player on your fourth line.

Hopefully the Toronto Maple Leafs re-sign Jason Spezza because he was worth every penny and more.  Its a bummer to think that Patrick Marleau cost them $6 million against the cap and a first round pick and didn’t come close to this level of production.

John Tavares

The season for John Tavares got off to a rocky start when he was injured in October and missed seven games.

By the time he came back, the Toronto Maple Leafs were in a tailspin that culminated in the firing of Mike Babcock in mid November.

Tavares didn’t have his best season, but stall managed an excellent 60 points in 63 games.

Tavares was worth almost 4 wins last year and had dream debut with the Leafs.  This year, he was worth only 2, which still made him better than 80% of other players, but was slightly off the pace he set last year when he flirted with a 50 goal season.

Hyman started the year injured, then played a lot with Matthews.  Marner wasn’t as good as he was last year, Tavares missed the aforementioned seven games, but I would suspect his thumb was injured for a lot longer and cost him quite a few points.

Then there was the coaching change, the team changing styles, and the final 12 games getting cancelled.

I’m listing this stuff because I think it paints a picture that excuses a lot of the drop off in Tavares’ game between last year and this year.  I don’t this is an age related decline (he is only 29) and I would fully expect the Captain to have a bounce back year next season.

Kasperi Kapanen

It figures that one of the only forwards on the Toronto Maple Leafs to avoid injury this year was the player who disappointed the most.

Marner, Hyman, Johnsson, Kerfoot, Mikheyev and Tavares all missed at least five games due to injury, and Kapanen only missed one.

Unfortunately, Kapanen could not translate a healthy season into a good one.  Perhaps the most disappointing player on the roster this year, Kapanen managed only 13 goals and 36 points in 69 games.

His offense was average, his defense atrocious, and he failed to contribute on special teams.

After being worth a solid 1.5 wins last year which is better than 65% of players, Kapanen actually had negative value this season, overall hurting the team with his play.

That is right: Kapanen was so ineffective, that a random replacement player would have likely provided the team with more value.

The Leafs got an unfortunate 46% of the goals when Kapanen played, and his expected goals rating wasn’t much better.

Considering that just under half his ice time featured either Matthews or Tavares as his centre, and considering that he was 3rd on the Toronto Maple Leafs in offensive zone starts, Kapanen’s numbers look even worse.

It was a bad season for Kapanen and he most likely will be playing next year on a different team.  I am a fan, but the Leafs will need his cap space and he has clearly made himself the most expendable out of himself, Johnsson and Kerfoot.

Mitch Marner

Mitch Marner scored 94 points last year, then he signed a contract that will keep him in Toronto until he is 28, paying him almost $11  million dollars per year.

In year one of the big contract, Marner failed to reach expectations – but only because the expectations his contract and the city he plays in foist upon him are enormous.

Marner scored 67 points in 59 games while posting an elite 55% expected goals rating.  He was worth 1.9 WAR and continued to be one of the most fun players in the entire league to watch.

The only thing you can say about Marner’s game this year is that he left you wanting more.  He was very good, but he can be great.  He also missed 11 games and if you add in the canceled games, that’s over 25% of the season.

In the future, Marner is going to crack 100 points and that is pretty much a guarantee.  But the question is, can he become a 35-40 goal scorer and be truly great?

I think he can be.  For now it’s a B but that is only because he didn’t play as good as he can. – for most anyone else, it’s an A season.

Zach Hyman

Zach Hyman scored 21 goals in 51 games, and was on pace to smash his career high in goals and points.

Hyman missed quite a bit of time to start the season, but played out-of-his-mind upon returning.

Hyman scored 1.83 P/60 which is just under first-line offensive production, and considering expectations, quite astounding.

Hyman was better than 91% of NHL players at 5v5 offense this year, and while he doesn’t provide much defensive value at even-strength (better than just 14% of players) he absolutely crushes it on the penalty kill, where he is better than 92%  (Just to reiterate, this information comes from the @jfresh players cards, which I highly recommenced).

Hyman was worth 2 WAR and over $6 million dollars, despite being payed just $2 million.  I don’t know if the Toronto Maple Leafs can afford to re-sign him, or if they even should (he’s approaching 30), but while he is here is providing amazing value against his cap hit, and has really elevated himself about his third line lunchpail-type reputation.

I used to think Hyman was a bit overrated, and that he was perfect trade bait.  I never thought he’d be a Leaf this long, and I have never been so happy to have been proven wrong about anything.

William Nylander

Where do we start?

How about with pointing out that during his so called “bad” season last year, Nylander was among the NHL’s leaders in zone entries, zone exits, and creating scoring chances.

Sure, he had low totals, but he shooting percentage went in the tank, and his two most common linemates scored at or below 4th line rates (Connor Brown and Patrick Marleau).

So it wasn’t really a comeback, as much as it was a luck correction.

Nylander spent half his time with Matthews and half his time with Tavares, and an assortment of wingers (including an unfortunate 100 minutes with Kapanen).   It didn’t really matter who he played with, the numbers are nuts.

55% Corsi

53% Fenwick

54% shots percentage

54% Expected Goals percentage

55% scoring chance percentage

54% dangerous chance percentage

1.6 WAR, 31 goals, and he led the NHL in net-front goals as he inexplicably became somewhat of a power forward.

His 38 5v5 points were the 13th highest total, tied for 25th most, and just two points behind potential Hart Trophy winner Elias Pettersson.

The only thing stopping Nylander from being a point-per-game player is the fact that he is the fourth option on the power-play and doesn’t get the amount of touches a player of his stature would normally expect.

Either way, there is one word to sum up Nylander’s season and that word is WOW!

That is it for the forward section of your Toronto Maple Leafs player grades. Kyle Clifford, Adam Brooks, Nic Petan and Denis Malgin were not graded due to their small sample of games played.