Toronto Maple Leafs to Face NHL’s Most Overrated Player in Playoffs

The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to play the Columbus Blue Jackets when the NHL playoffs begin later this summer.

And subsequently, the Toronto Maple Leafs will be playing against one of the NHL’s most overrated players.

When the match-up was first announced, I previewed the Blue Jackets here, talking about the type of team they are. 

Essentially, I pointed out how they lost potential NHL Hart Trophy winner Artemi Panarin (as well as Matt Duchene and Sergei Bobrovsky) and then somehow got better.

To explain this, I discussed the fact that their 3rd string goalie Elvis Merzlikins was forced into action and helped the team to the 5th best 5v5 save percentage in the NHL.

Later, I compared the Leafs vs Blue Jackets in terms of their elite forwards.  The Leafs came out way on top because the Blue Jackets have only one truly good forward (Oliver Bjorkstrand, worth 4 Wins Above Replacement this year).

Today we are going to compare the team’s defense and discuss one of the NHL’s most overrated players.

Toronto Maple Leafs and Blue Jackets Defense

The Leafs blue Line is ranked here by their xWAR.  

What we learn by looking at this is that injuries sapped Morgan Rielly of his effectiveness (he’s still an elite player) but that the Leafs best defenseman this year was Jake Muzzin, with a xWAR of 2.

Sandin and Dermott are both effective players, while Ceci and Barrie have negative value (though I think Keefe has a very good handle on how to use Barrie effectively, based on his late season resurgence).

If the Leafs dress Rielly, Muzzin, Holl, Barrie, Sandin and Dermott they have a very good blue line.  If Rielly gets back to the form he showed last season (and the Leafs won over 70% that Rielly and Keefe both participated in) then the Leafs have a distinct advantage over the Blue Jackets blue line, which is a mess.

Zach Werenski was worth zero xWAR this year.

Ryan Murray, their Jake Muzzin, was worth 2 xWAR.

David Savard, formerly pretty good, just 0.1 xWAR.

Their combination of Andrew Peeke, Dean Kukan, Markus Nutivaara and Scott Harrington had a combined value of 0.3 xWAR.

But what about Seth Jones?  Well, it turns out that Seth Jones may just be the most overrated player in the NHL.  Often cited as one of the NHL’s best defensemen, the statistics do not back up the claim.

Jones had his best season two years ago when he was worth exactly what Jake Muzzin was worth this season (2 wins).   Last year he declined, and this year he declined some more to being worth a total of 0.3 expected WAR.

Essentially, Seth Jones was a replacement player who wasn’t even as valuable to his team as Martin Marincin was (now, obviously they play completely different roles and Seth Jones is a much better player, but their overall effectiveness in their various roles was the inverse what most people would probably think).  (All stats from Player Cards, courtesy  @jfresh)

Seth Jones has never had the kind of four win season that Rielly enjoyed last year.  He is extremely overrated and, at best, would be the Leafs third best defenseman.

Now don’t get me wrong, this is still a good player with a ton of potential. Jones scored almost 60 points in his age 23 season, and could still live up to his reputation.  But if Tyson Barrie has taught us anything, it’s that point totals aren’t the be all end all for defenseman.

Jones is a decent player whose overall game – even with almost 60 points – didn’t have the effect Jake Muzzin did this year.   Think about how good Muzzin is next time someone complains about the Leafs blueline.

In conclusion, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a significantly better blue-line than the Columbus Blue Jackets, who employ one of the league’s most overrated players.