The Toronto Maple Leafs had one of the weirdest seasons of their long history this year.
The Toronto Maple Leafs began the year as a team most people expected to take the next step in becoming an annual contender.
And while that did happen, the ride was anything but smooth, and the team’s point total (or pace, given the circumstances) was less than last year’s, forcing fans already looking for reasons to criticize the Leafs young GM (because he doesn’t value hitting and fighting enough for them) to declare the team is going in the wrong direction.
This is a lazy and unfair criticism.
Toronto Maple Leafs Are Better Than They Seem
The NHL is a pro league with a salary cap, in which the math says skill doesn’t overtake luck as the #1 factor in determining the standings until a sample of over 70 games has been reached.
This means that results are not exactly reliable in determining the best team, and that team’s records do not always reflect the “true” standings. This should be obvious to anyone who thinks about it for even five minutes, but apparently it’s a controversial statement.
So while it is true that the Leafs were not likely to match last year’s point totals, it’s important to keep in mind why:
– The team went on a six game losing streak leading to Mike Babcock’s firing.
– They then massively altered their play style, and had to learn a new system on the fly.
– They got basically zero points from the back-up goalie position for about half the season.
– They played 23 games without Morgan Rielly; including nine without both Rielly and Jake Muzzin. They had many other injuries. They dressed their optimal lineup zero times this season.
– Freddie Andersen had, by far, the worst season of his career.
– The ill-advised attempt to make Cody Ceci a first pairing player.
If you consider that these are things that are unlikely to happen again, and if you further consider the fact that, since Keefe was hired, the Toronto Maple Leafs have put up team stats (which are more predictive than the standings) that put them on par with Boston and Tampa, and furthermore, if you also consider that they finished 24th in 5v5 goaltending but 8th overall in the standings, then I think it’s clear that the team is on the right track.
Remember, that the Leafs are a very young team. They have made the playoffs four years in a row now, and before that they were the worst team in the NHL.
People forget that in order to draft Auston Matthews, the Leafs finished 30th overall and then made the playoffs the next season. They had no business doing that, but still pushed one of the best teams in hockey to six games.
Then, for two years, they faced the Bruins (while on the hardest possible path to the Cup) who are a legacy team that has won a Cup and been among the league’s best for a decade. There is no shame in losing to them.
Babcock cost the Leafs a month of the season, and as close as the NHL is, a six game losing streak can easily end your season. The team failed to meet expectations, but not for any kind of fundamental reason like roster construction or bad play.
No team just smoothly transitions from also-ran to champion. The NHL is a league where the best team rarely wins the Cup, and where goalies and injuries can derail the best laid plans.
The Leafs have faced some adversity, but at the end of the day, they are still a team with several potential hall of famers on it, most of whom are young and still getting better. They have depth, no bad contracts, some prospect depth and their potential is off the charts.
I see criticism about this team, but most of it is so childish and illogical that it’s hard to take seriously. The blue-line is underrated, the salary cap situation is the best in hockey, and the GM has been the best one in the league since he was hired.
The only problem this team faces is the one of outside pressure and being able to ignore it until the payoff comes.
In the end, if your favorite team has Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Morgan Rielly, William Nylander and Mitch Marner, you should probably complain less about them and embrace the fun of having one of the best teams in the NHL.
I know this has happened so infrequently with this franchise that’s it’s hard to believe, but honestly, its a lot more fun being positive, and all the information says that you should be.