Don’t Expect the Toronto Maple Leafs to Re-Sign Ilya Mikheyev

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed Russian forward Ilya Mikheyev last summer.

As a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Mikheyev had a very successful season.

Not only did he acquit himself well, but he was able to move up the lineup when necessary, and endured himself the fans with his play style and hilarious post-game interviews expounding on his love for soup.

Unfortunately Mikheyev was cut by a skate and missed a large portion of the season.   He will be back for the playoffs, should they occur, but beyond that, I wouldn’t expect him back.

Toronto Maple Leafs and Ilya Mikheyev

Mikheyev scored eight goals and 23 points in 39 games.  His 2.44 points per 60 minutes of ice-time led the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Now, let’s not get crazy. Mikheyev is not going to score more than Auston Matthews on a per minute basis going forward.  His on-ice shooting percentage and PDO are highly likely to go down.

Here is the problem with short sample sizes: they are unreliable.  Mikheyev scored points at an elite rate, but he only played 39 games.  He was hot at the start and the end of his season, combining to scored 15 points in 18 games.

But there was also a 21 game goalless drought in the middle where he had only 8 assists.

53% Corsi, 53% expected-goals, 52% dangerous chances.   The stats Mikheyev put up were extremely good – he helped the Toronto Maple Leafs a lot whenever he was on the ice.  (Stats from naturalstattrick.com).

These are really, really good numbers, and he scored at an elite rate.

But keep in mind, he really scored at an Art Ross pace for half his games, and like a 3rd liner for half his game.  He had great stats, but half his minutes were as a 3rd wheel on an elite line with Tavares.  The other half were dominating easy competition on a stacked third line with Alex Kerfoot.

Based on his play, Mikheyev deserves a lot more than the one-million dollar contract the Toronto Maple Leafs can afford to give him, so I doubt he will be back.

But should the Leafs consider him as a potentially elite player who it would make sense to pay the cost to keep around?

No.

He’s going to be 26, so the odds are that he has already had his best year.  It’s not impossible that he’s a late bloomer, but statistically it’s highly probably you’ve had your best season by 26.

The scoring is too high, and adds too much to his perceived value.  I would put it at a near zero percent chance that Mikheyev is actually going to score at a first-line rate in the NHL on a regular basis.  Those 21 goalless games represent more than half of NHL career.

What I think is that Mikheyev could provide real value over most other third line players in the NHL.  On the Leafs, I would expect that, long-term, both Zach Hyman and Andreas Johnsson are better players.

Even if they are not, Nick Robertson should be in the Leafs top-six before too long, and you don’t need to over pay Mikheyev when a) it’s a risk that he over-performed and b) there are ample players to replace him (Hyman, Johnsson, Barabanov, Robertson, just to name four).

If Mikheyev could be retained anywhere near the $1 million mark, he’d be great value.  But he’s also the exact kind of mid-range players successful teams need to avoid rewarding with high salaries or lengthy terms.

If you could get Mikheyev cheaper then Johnsson, then trade Johnsson, I could get on board, since I’m a fan of his.

I just don’t think it’s wise. Andreas Johnsson has more offensive talent and to me, that is the main thing a team should be concerned with.

Mikheyev is going to want term and a raise of 3 x his current salary.  As much as I like him, that’s not something the Toronto Maple Leafs should consider.