When (and if) the NHL season resumes, the Toronto Maple Leafs will play the Columbus Blue Jackets in a best of five play-in series.
The Toronto Maple Leafs couldn’t have asked for a better match-up.
Now, don’t get me wrong, the Leafs could easily lose this series.
In the NHL, goalies make such a drastic difference that any team is capable of beating any other team on any given night.
In a five game series, there is a higher percentage of an upset happening than in a seven game series.
But even in a regular first-round playoff series, the underdog is always going to win at least three out of ever ten times, no matter who is playing.
So Columbus might win, but even if the Leafs played the Red Wings (who are awful) there would still be a pretty good chance of an upset.
Doesn’t matter, Columbus is the easiest possible matchup they could have asked for.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus
Statistically, the Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the elite teams in the East. They should only be considered an underdog against two teams (Tampa and Boston) and even then, it’s essentially a coin-flip where whoever has home-ice advantage probably has about a 1% higher chance of winning.
But against the other nine teams, the Leafs would have a very favorable match-up.
Obviously the Flyers, Capitals and Penguins are decent teams, and all would be harder opponents than Columbus.
But what about the other six teams?
The Islanders, Blue Jackets, Panthers, Canadiens, Hurricanes and Rangers?
Well, regular season standings aside, I think the Hurricanes are easily the best team here. They have some of the best forwards in the NHL (Terravainen, Aho) and the very best defenseman (Dougie Hamilton). They are probably on par with Boston, Tampa and Toronto.
Montreal is the next best team here. They’ve got solid stats across the board and were just a bit unlucky. Brendan Gallagher is one of the NHL’s best players and Carey Price, while somehow both underrated and overrated, is still not a goalie I would be happy about facing in a short series.
That leaves four teams, and of them, the Panthers are easily the best. Barkov and Huberdeau are elite players, and despite having a bad season, Bobrovsky always has potential to wake up one morning and channel the powers of Dominick Hasek.
Let’s face it, the Rangers, Islanders and Blue Jackets are all over-achievers. But the Rangers have the best player on any of these teams, plus I like their goalies.
There is no real difference between Islanders and Blue Jackets. Both teams are extremely light on elite players, and both are more or less propped up by unsustainable goaltending.
Neither team has any business in the playoffs.
Personally, I would rather the Toronto Maple Leafs play the Blue Jackets because of Karma. After stealing the Islanders best player, I would just take my chances with the Jackets, since they don’t have such well developed hate for my favorite team.
As a great man once said, I’m not superstitious, but I am a little stitious.
Bottom line, the Jackets are (at best) one of the two worst teams in the upcoming 12 team play-in, so the Toronto Maple Leafs have gotten the best possible matchup.