Top 10 Toronto Maple Leafs Misses: 2010s Edition
Over the past decade, the Toronto Maple Leafs have done a tremendous job at scouting and developing through the NHL Entry Draft.
If you look at their current roster, besides John Tavares, the Toronto Maple Leafs drafted their four best players.
Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Auston Matthews were all drafted by the team with top-10 picks since 2012.
You may think, so what? How hard could it be to draft talent like this when you have one of the best picks in the draft?
Well, as we’ve seen over the previous three parts of this series, it’s a lot harder than it looks.
Hindsight will always be 20/20 because no matter how good a player turns out, there’s always an alternate universe where maybe you could have selected a player that’s better suited for your current roster.
For example, you may have selected one of the most talented offensive players in the draft, but would a defenseman have been better for the overall team, compared to a flashy offensive superstar?
These are a number of different ‘what-if’s’ that go on after the NHL Entry Draft and it’s been a fun experiment to understand what players could have been Maple Leafs if things had gone differently.
Here is the criteria again to showcase exactly what a “miss” is defined as.
- The player can only be a “miss” if another team selected that individual within five picks of the Toronto Maple Leafs draft pick.
Enjoy the fourth and final part of these series, as we look at the top 10 draft misses from the 2010s.
#10. Rickard Rakell (2011 NHL Entry Draft, 1st Round, 30th Overall)
Toronto’s Actual Pick: 1st Round, 25th Overall (Stuart Percy)
For current Toronto Maple Leafs fans, there is probably no draft more hated than the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.
With the 22nd and 25th overall selection, the Leafs were ready to draft two great prospects that would help turn the franchise around.
Instead, the scouting department did an awful job. They selected Tyler Biggs (bust) with the 22nd overall pick, then Stuart Percy (lifetime AHLer) with the 25th overall pick.
The team had the draft in the palm of their hands and folded.
Instead of picking Biggs or Percy, the team could have drafted Rickard Rakell. He wasn’t the most productive junior hockey player, but the Ducks who selected five picks after the Toronto Maple Leafs thought he could be something, and he’s turned into a great NHLer.
Rackell is a minimum 20-goal scorer and even had a career high 34-goals in the 2017-18 campaign.
At only 27-years-old, Rackell is in the prime of his career as well, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he scores closer to 30 than 20 goals every season for the next few years.
#9. Nikolaj Ehlers (2014 NHL Entry Draft, 1st Round, 9th Overall)
Toronto’s Actual Pick: 1st Round, 8th Overall (William Nylander)
When this draft happened, there was a real debate between Nylander and Ehlers.
Both players have a similar skill-set, except that Ehlers was left-handed and Nylander was right-handed. Both European players (Nylander was born in Canada but plays for Team Sweden), Ehlers played his junior hockey in Quebec, whereas Nylander played in Sweden.
Many Toronto Maple Leafs fans were torn with this pick because on one hand there was an incredibly skilled Ehlers who just scored 49 goals and 100 points in junior with the Halifax Mooseheads, but comparatively there was Nylander who was already playing with men in the Swedish Hockey League.
Not only that but Nylander’s father was a very good NHLer so you’d think that bloodline would help.
At the end of the day, the Leafs picked Nylander and that hasn’t been a bad choice. Besides his contract hold-out, Nylander has been a 20 goal and 60 point player but was on pace for a breakout year of 37 goals and 70 points before the season stopped.
In terms of point totals, Ehlers has been right there with Nylander averaging essentially the same goal and point totals in their first five seasons.
As crazy as it sounds, if the Leafs picked Ehlers over Nylander I don’t think they’d be any different and the team would be at the exact same spot as it is now.
#8. Zach Werenski (2015 NHL Entry Draft, 1st Round, 8th Overall)
Toronto’s Actual Pick: 1st Round, 4th Overall (Mitch Marner)
For their real selections, the Toronto Maple Leafs were extremely lucky to begin with.
With the third overall pick, the Arizona Coyotes went with Dylan Strome over Marner, so fortunately for Leafs fans they were able to get one of the most dynamic play-makers in the NHL.
However, as much Marner is one of the most skilled players in the league, the team may have been better off taking a defenseman here.
The current offensive powers of John Tavares, Matthews and Nylander should be able to carry the load, even if Marner wasn’t there. Not only that, but Werenski makes half as much as Marner, so with that money saved, the team would be able to get a player for $5 million to help with the offense.
Werenski is turning into one of the best young defenseman in the NHL. He was having his best year yet, but the shortened season stopped his momentum. Despite only playing in 63 games, he already had 20 goals, which led all NHL defenseman.
Would you rather have a good defenseman who could score 20 goals or Marner who could score 100 points in a season?
Every team is constructed differently, but with the money saved from Marner’s contract and Werenski filling a huge void in Toronto’s line-up, Werenski could have turned out to be a miss for the Leafs.
#7. Frederik Andersen (2010 NHL Entry Draft, 7th Round, 187th Overall)
Toronto’s Actual Pick: 7th Round, 182nd Overall (Josh Nicholls)
Not many people know this, but Andersen was actually drafted twice. His first go-around came in 2010 when he was drafted by the Carolina Hurricanes in the seventh round. However, after Andersen and the team couldn’t agree on a contract, he went back into the draft in 2012.
Despite being drafted twice, in a hypothetical world, if the Leafs selected him with this pick instead of Josh Nicholls, I’m sure they would have came to an agreement on a contract.
First of all, who is Josh Nicholls that the Toronto Maple Leafs drafted instead of Andersen? Well, he was a 30-goal scorer in the Western Hockey League that shot right-handed and seemed like a fine seventh round pick at the time. However, as time passed, Nicholls didn’t play a game in the NHL and was mostly in the ECHL before playing in Europe.
The goaltender Leafs’ fans call “Steady Freddie” was available for the Leafs back in 2010, but they decided to pass on him. Although the team eventually traded for him and he’s now the starting goaltender, it would have been nice to have him in the organization earlier.
#6. Jordan Binnington (2011 NHL Entry Draft, 3rd Round, 88th Overall)
Toronto’s Actual Pick: 3rd Round, 86th Overall (Josh Leivo)
There’s something not-so-fun about this experiment that has shown just how bad the Maple Leafs have been with goaltending.
Besides drafting Felix Potvin in 1990, there hasn’t been a good goaltender the team has developed since. Sure, James Reimer and Garret Sparks played NHL games, but those two aren’t true NHL starting goaltenders.
Josh Leivo was never treated as an everyday player in Toronto, so in a different setting, Leivo’s career could have been different. It’s nice to see that he’s fitting in well in Vancouver and is becoming a steady NHL player for them.
While the Leafs selected Leivo and did a terrible job advancing his career, Jordan Binnington was there for the taking. Although it took until he was 25-years-old to make a splash in the NHL, that’s not too old for goaltender
Since 2011, the St. Louis Blues have been developing Binnington at a slow pace so that when it was his time to shine, he was ready for it. And that’s exactly what happened during the 2018-19 season.
Binnington was called up from the AHL, and went on a hot-streak. He finished the season with a 24-5-1 record and carried that momentum into the playoffs, where he helped guide the Blues to a Stanley Cup championship.
Who knows if Binnington would have been able to become a starting number-one goaltender in Toronto’s system, but based on how well the Marlies have been developing over the past few years, I’m sure we would have been talking about him as the next great goalie if the Leafs ended up drafting him.
#5. Brendan Gallagher (2010 NHL Entry Draft, 5th Round, 147th Overall)
Toronto’s Actual Pick: 5th Round, 146th Overall (Daniel Brodin)
It always seems to sting more when the player is selected one pick after a bust.
And it even starts to sting more when that player turns into Brendan Gallagher and was drafted by the Montreal Canadiens.
Listed at 5-foot-9, 184 pounds, it makes sense that teams were hesitant to draft him. Even as short as 10 years ago, NHL teams were unsure if small skilled players would transition well into the NHL game.
Now it seems that every draft pick Kyle Dubas makes is a player six-foot or under so the game has definitely evolved.
Despite his height, Gallagher was a three-time 40-goal scorer in the Western Hockey League. After leading his team in goal scoring for three straight seasons, he was ready to prove his worth in the NHL.
For the last eight seasons, Gallagher has been a huge piece to the Canadiens’ offense. In an 82-game season, Gallagher was on-pace for another 30-goal season, which would have been his third consecutive.
Although he’s a player everyone hates to play against, he’s a fan-favourite in Montreal and the Toronto Maple Leafs missed out huge by not selecting him in 2010.
#4. Connor Hellybuck (2012 NHL Entry Draft, 5th Round, 130th Overall)
Toronto’s Actual Pick: 5th Round, 126th Overall (Dominic Toninato)
Would you rather have Toninato, who’s played 85 career NHL games or Hellybuck who’s probably going to win the Vezina Trophy this year?
Hmm, I’m going to say Hellybuck.
This seems like clockwork for the Leafs. Another NHL Entry Draft passes, and another future top-five goaltender in the NHL passes them by.
Over the past 15 years, goaltending has been the team’s biggest crutch. Defense is a close second but that spills from the goaltender. Without a solid number-one, the team will never win a championship.
Is Freddie Andersen going to win you a Stanley Cup? He’s been unproven in big games over the past few seasons, but he’s still a good goaltender. Hellybuck on the other hand can win you a Stanley Cup.
Tyler Myers, Dustin Byfuglien and Jacob Trouba all left the Winnipeg Jets this season, but that didn’t matter. Hellybuck carried the load and is almost single-handily guiding the Jets to a playoff spot.
With the current stoppage, it’s unsure what would have happened in the last few games but Hellybuck was playing so well that it seemed enviable that the Jets would squeeze into the playoffs.
Although there were 129 other misses before Hellybuck was drafted, the Leafs had a chance at securing one of the best goaltenders in the NHL and once again missed that opportunity.
#3. Johnny Gaudreau (2011 NHL Entry Draft, 4th Round, 104th Overall)
Toronto’s Actual Pick: 4th Round, 100th Overall (Tom Nilsson)
Close your eyes and picture this for a second: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Johnny Gaudreau.
Could you imagine the type of damage that those three would do if they were on the same line together?
Well, if the Leafs could turn back time, they would have drafted Johnny “Hockey” with the 100th overall pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft instead of Tom Nilsson.
The right-handed defenseman from Sweden turned into nothing, whereas Gaudreau is one of the most skilled players in the NHL.
It makes sense that Gaudreau fell because he’s only 5-foot-9 and 165 pounds, but how many times is this going to happen to NHL G.M.’s? Size doesn’t matter as much in today’s NHL and Gaudreau is a perfect example of that.
Gaudreau had a breakout season in 2017-18, then followed it up with an even better year posting 36 goals and 99 points. Typically paired with Sean Monahan, the two are one of the best young duo’s in the NHL and are the reason why the Flames will be in contention for years to come.
It’s a crime that Toronto missed out on this pick because unless the NHL allows players to go to the Olympics, we’ll never get to see a Gaudreau-Matthews connection.
#2. Patrik Laine (2016 NHL Entry Draft, 1st Round, 2nd Overall)
Toronto’s Actual Pick: 1st Round, 1st Overall (Auston Matthews)
Was this really a miss? No.
For one, Matthews is a center and that’s more valuable. Secondly, the majority of Laine’s goals come on the power-play, compared to Matthews who does his damage 5v5.
And finally, Laine just isn’t that good defensively, whereas Matthews takeaway ability is one of his best skills.
So, how could he be a miss for the Leafs? Well it comes down to dollars and cents.
For essentially the same cost of Auston Matthews, the Winnipeg Jets have Mark Scheifele and Laine. If you’re a Leafs’ fan, would you rather have one 40-to-50 goal scorer in Matthews or would you rather have Scheifele and Laine who both average between 30-and-40 goals?
The team would still be able to pay Tavares, Nylander and Marner, but instead would have Laine for $5 million per year cheaper. That extra money could be used for a number of things. They could use it to get an extra defenseman, re-sign Andersen or get another depth forward without having to trade anything away to save money.
Alright enough with the antics. I’d rather have Matthews too but it was fun to debate.
#1. Sebastian Aho (2015 NHL Entry Draft, 2nd Round, 35th Overall)
Toronto’s Actual Pick: 2nd Round, 34th Overall (Travis Dermott)
This was a good scouting job by Toronto, but even better by Carolina.
With the 34th overall selection, the Leafs picked Dermott who is turning into a top-four defenseman in the NHL. Those types of players are hard to find and every team is looking for a better defensive-core, so it was a good selection at the time and still is.
However, they did miss out on potentially the third best player in this entire draft. Besides Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, it’s possible that Aho ends up third among all players in this draft class in goals.
In four seasons, his worst goal scoring year was 24 in his rookie-year, and he was on pace for 46 goals this year. Aho is an exceptional talent and it would be a shock if he scored less than 30-goals in a season for the next decade.
As great as it is to have Dermott, just think of the the three centers the Leafs could have had: Matthews, Tavares, Aho.
Next. Top 10 Draft Misses: 2000s Edition. dark
Maybe if the Leafs draft Aho they don’t even sign Tavares because of money restrictions. Matthews and Aho as your two center’s could do more than enough damage and a combination of Matthews-Marner and Aho-Nylander could be two of the greatest duo’s in the NHL.