Simulation Series Part 1: Can The Current Toronto Maple Leafs Core Win A Cup?

The Experiment

It’s a question that is constantly on the minds of many Toronto Maple Leafs fans: can this core group of players go all the way?

Using the technology we have available, we’ll take a glimpse at a possible future and put that question to the ultimate test.

It’s never been up for debate that the Leafs roster of the past couple of seasons is the best it’s been since the prime Mats Sundin years of the early 2000s. The one major difference being that the current squad hasn’t found an iota of playoff success… yet.

As many in both the fandom and the mainstream media continue to posit questions on if the modern Toronto Maple Leafs have what it takes to win a Stanley Cup, and the acceptance that the season isn’t going to resume any time soon, I thought I’d try and take a look in the future to try and answer some of those questions on my own.

I thought it’d be a fun experiment to head into EA Sports’ NHL ’20 and begin a Franchise Mode where I would, essentially, step into the role of Kyle Dubas, and try to lead the Leafs into the promised land.

The catch? I have to do it within five years and I have to keep the core of the team completely intact, no matter what.

Now, of course, being a video game and all, this is by no means an accurate prediction of what’s going to happen, and the lines of realism will be blurry at best, nonexistent at worst, but nevertheless, we’re gonna dive on in and give it a try.

The Rules

Anyone familiar with EA Sports and the NHL brand of games will know that they are far from perfect, I could sit here for hours and rant on the series’ many imperfections, but we’ve got a job to do, and not long to get it done, so I’ll push on.

What I will say is that, in an attempt to bring things closer to the real world, I’ve tweaked a few factors with the game settings (player growth potential, injury occurrence, etc) and I’ve also implemented the following rules and objectives:

Objective: Win the Stanley Cup with the following core complement of players: Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Frederik Andersen, Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, Zach Hyman, and Rasmus Sandin.

Unless the proper trade opportunity comes along, I’m also designated Kasperi Kapanen as an untradeable player, just for a little added difficulty.

Rules are pretty simple:

• All games are simulated, no player intervention on games to influence the result.
• Using most recent gameplay and roster updates as a baseline.
• No major trades during 2019-2020 season to keep current roster and cap situation the same for summer 2020.
• No trading future assets beyond the five-year timespan this series will cover. So even though I have a full complement of first-round draft picks for the next decade or so at my disposal, I won’t be throwing draft picks from years six to ten into year one trades to try and land Lafreniere or anything like that.
• Injury occurrence is toned down to 15/100 (as opposed to 50/100) but, should a team-devastating injury occur, I cannot revert to an earlier save to try and prevent it.
• My last rule is to be completely upfront about everything, I want this to be fun, but I also want it to be honest…. unless the Cup is on the line in a Game 7 and we lose by a single goal in overtime, but we’ll cross that bridge if we get to it.

On the next slide, I’ll lay out exactly what changes I’ve made to certain players in the organization to try and more accurately reflect their true skills and potential.

Toronto Maple Leafs and Prospects: Player Edits and Explanation

Auston Matthews: Potential increased to Low Franchise (From High Elite). No stat changes.

The reason for this slight change is simple- Matthews is the face of the Toronto Maple Leafs franchise. It’s a negligible change but one that I felt compelled to make nonetheless.

Justin Holl: Potential increased to Exact Top 6 (From 7th D). No stat changes.

Again, an ultimately meaningless change, just to put some respect on Holl’s name. Players of his age no longer improve under the EA Sports Franchise mode formula, so it won’t affect his performance.

Rasmus Sandin: Potential Increased to Medium Elite (From High Top 4). Stats boosted to 80 overall rating (From 78).

Many view Sandin as a future top-pairing defenceman, I share those beliefs and wanted to have his abilities more accurately reflect that potential.

Nick Robertson: Potential increased to High Top 6 (From Medium Top 6). Stats boosted to 74 overall rating (from 62). Player type changed to Sniper (from Playmaker)

This was the one I struggled with the most. Robertson’s near-historic rise over the last 11 months has been nothing short of awe-inspiring.

With Kyle Dubas’ remarks and widespread speculation that he could make his NHL debut as early as this fall, I wondered about making him an Elite potential player, however, in the end, I kept the expectations tailored while still putting him in the best position to succeed.

Semyon Der-Arguchintsev: Potential untouched (Medium Top 6). Stats boosted to 68 overall rating (from 62).

“SDA” is nearing the end of his time in major junior and at his current skill level, would not have been ready for the AHL. Plus, Der-Arguchintsev had a great year playing alongside Nick Robertson in Peterborough, this boost in ability somewhat accurately reflects the strides he made in his game.

Justin Brazeau: Potential raised to High Bottom-6 (from Medium AHL Top 6). Stats boosted to 72 overall (from 67). Promoted from Newfoundland Growlers to Toronto Marlies.

The Growlers rookie of the year is a player that I have my eye on as a potential depth player with the Leafs in the years to come. There is some personal bias in this move, I will admit, but I’m intrigued as to what this particular player can develop into when he is put into a position to succeed.

Mikhail Abramov: Potential raised to Medium Top 6 (from Low Top 6). Stats boosted to 66 overall rating (from 61).

One of the top-scoring players in the QMJHL, Abramov signed a 3-year entry-level contract earlier this year, a move which seems to suggest he factors into Kyle Dubas’ plans in the years to come.

Filip Kral: Potential unchanged (Medium Top 6 D). Stats boosted to 66 overall rating (from 62).

Another Dubas draft pick who has recently signed an ELC and like Abramov, I wanted him in a position to make the AHL team when his time comes.

In an ideal world, this mode would provide the option to also manage the lineup of an ECHL affiliate for prospects in your pipeline that are too old for major junior and have not yet developed enough to be an immediate impact player on an AHL roster, or have reached the age where they must be signed or you lose their rights, even though they are not ready for professional play.

Another appreciated option would be the ability to assign instructions to players being sent to junior level (simple things like “score more” or “focus on defence”), as a way to maybe inform the simulation of your plans for players who are outside of your immediate control (maybe next year EA?).

One final note to make is that, although he will likely make the 2020-2021 Maple Leafs roster in real life, Alexander Barabanov will not be making an appearance in this simulation, as he is not programmed into the software and created custom players are always a little too good no matter what skill rating you set them at.

The last thing we’re going to cover in this part of Simulation Series is a complete report on the year one results of this new five-year plan. Standings, Awards, playoff results, as well as notable trades from around the league.