Simulation Series Part 1: Can The Current Toronto Maple Leafs Core Win A Cup?

The Experiment

It’s a question that is constantly on the minds of many Toronto Maple Leafs fans: can this core group of players go all the way?

Using the technology we have available, we’ll take a glimpse at a possible future and put that question to the ultimate test.

It’s never been up for debate that the Leafs roster of the past couple of seasons is the best it’s been since the prime Mats Sundin years of the early 2000s. The one major difference being that the current squad hasn’t found an iota of playoff success… yet.

As many in both the fandom and the mainstream media continue to posit questions on if the modern Toronto Maple Leafs have what it takes to win a Stanley Cup, and the acceptance that the season isn’t going to resume any time soon, I thought I’d try and take a look in the future to try and answer some of those questions on my own.

I thought it’d be a fun experiment to head into EA Sports’ NHL ’20 and begin a Franchise Mode where I would, essentially, step into the role of Kyle Dubas, and try to lead the Leafs into the promised land.

The catch? I have to do it within five years and I have to keep the core of the team completely intact, no matter what.

Now, of course, being a video game and all, this is by no means an accurate prediction of what’s going to happen, and the lines of realism will be blurry at best, nonexistent at worst, but nevertheless, we’re gonna dive on in and give it a try.

The Rules

Anyone familiar with EA Sports and the NHL brand of games will know that they are far from perfect, I could sit here for hours and rant on the series’ many imperfections, but we’ve got a job to do, and not long to get it done, so I’ll push on.

What I will say is that, in an attempt to bring things closer to the real world, I’ve tweaked a few factors with the game settings (player growth potential, injury occurrence, etc) and I’ve also implemented the following rules and objectives:

Objective: Win the Stanley Cup with the following core complement of players: Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Frederik Andersen, Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, Zach Hyman, and Rasmus Sandin.

Unless the proper trade opportunity comes along, I’m also designated Kasperi Kapanen as an untradeable player, just for a little added difficulty.

Rules are pretty simple:

• All games are simulated, no player intervention on games to influence the result.
• Using most recent gameplay and roster updates as a baseline.
• No major trades during 2019-2020 season to keep current roster and cap situation the same for summer 2020.
• No trading future assets beyond the five-year timespan this series will cover. So even though I have a full complement of first-round draft picks for the next decade or so at my disposal, I won’t be throwing draft picks from years six to ten into year one trades to try and land Lafreniere or anything like that.
• Injury occurrence is toned down to 15/100 (as opposed to 50/100) but, should a team-devastating injury occur, I cannot revert to an earlier save to try and prevent it.
• My last rule is to be completely upfront about everything, I want this to be fun, but I also want it to be honest…. unless the Cup is on the line in a Game 7 and we lose by a single goal in overtime, but we’ll cross that bridge if we get to it.

On the next slide, I’ll lay out exactly what changes I’ve made to certain players in the organization to try and more accurately reflect their true skills and potential.