Toronto Maple Leafs: Predicting Player Ratings for EA Sports NHL 21

William Nylander – 88 (NHL 20 Rating: 85)

Expect to see William Nylander with a much better player card in NHL 21 this September. With 59 points in 68 games, Nylander was on pace to record a career-high 71 points this season after being criticized for his brutal play last season after signing a six year extension with an AAV of $6.9 million.

There was a point during the year where you could argue that Nylander was the best forward on the Toronto Maple Leafs, which included a six game stretch in November where he recorded eight goals and 11 points.

In comparison to his contemporaries with similar point production, there is no reason why Nylander’s rating shouldn’t improve immensely. Jonathan Toews (88 Overall) and Johnny Gaudreau (90 Overall) are both within one point of William Nylander, and are both significantly higher.

While this may not seem like a big difference to those who aren’t familiar with the NHL gaming franchise, high-80 to lower-90 overall players are considered to be among the best in the league.

To put in perspective, Connor McDavid was ranked number one in the top 50 players in the game, and he is a 94 overall. While I’m very aware that William Nylander is nowhere close to the talent and skill that Connor McDavid possesses, this is the first of many instances where you can see the rating system is flawed.

It’s also important to remember that recency bias has always played a significant role in how EA has rated their players, and Nylander has proven himself to be a dominant offensive force at all areas of the ice. Whether or not this will stay consistent for the coming seasons remains to be seen, but he deserves an upgrade this year for sure.

John Tavares – 89 (NHL 20 Rating: 90)

While his offensive numbers have remained generally consistent, for Tavares to remain at a 90 overall would be pretty surprising. Tavares was on pace for 33 goals this season which was 14 less than last year, likely due to the 12 games he missed this season with a fractured finger, but his defensive numbers are the biggest reason behind my prediction.

In the 2018-19 season, Tavares had one of the highest goals against per-60 minutes stats on the Maple Leafs with 2.68, being ninth on the squad, and has gone up to third in that category this season as he sits at 3.34 GA/60.

Another stat that reinforces Tavares’s defensive woes this season is in relation to where he took majority of his faceoffs, and where his shifts began. Second to the neutral zone, which dominates every NHL player in this category, John Tavares started 35% of his shifts in the offensive zone (Neutral zone: 43%, Defensive Zone: 22%).

Despite starting majority of his shifts at the other end of the ice, Tavares also had the worst on-ice save percentage of any forward on Toronto (89.92%) just behind rookie defensemen Rasmus Sandin (2nd, 88.59 on-ice sv%, 35 less GP than Tavares), and Timothy Liljegren (1st, 84.62 on-ice sv%, 52 less games played).

Being a centre, which has historically demanded more defensive responsibility by nature of the position, while also playing on a team that never had a good defensive core the whole year, these numbers are semi-unnacceptable.

I say semi just because of that very reason; not having a good defensive core the whole year. Due to an insane amount of injuries, a lot of youth, and even the goaltending holding some of the blame, these numbers will inevitably be inflated, but we’ve seen better from Tavares in the past to expect more out of him.