Toronto Maple Leafs: Predicting Player Ratings for EA Sports NHL 21
EA Sports has the Toronto Maple Leafs rated as one of the best teams in the NHL
As Toronto Maple Leafs fans continue to find different ways to get their hockey fix during the absence of our favourite game, many people, like myself, have found themselves spending hours in front of their televisions playing the most recent instalment from EA Sports’s hockey series, NHL 20.
At the NHL awards in early 2019, former video game cover star P.K Subban revealed that EA chose Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews to be the next face of their franchise, making him the cover athlete for their upcoming release.
I’m sure 20 years ago being on the cover of a video game was definitely not number one every NHL player’s bucket list, but as the game has become a more influential part of the young fans and players who drive hockey culture, being the prime representative of the NHL on that large of a scale is an honour that a lot of players should be proud to have.
Auston Matthews was given a 90 overall rating this year, making him #15 on the top 50 players list for their game, and is one of five Toronto Maple Leafs to make this list. This includes Frederik Andersen (88 overall, 49th), Morgan Rielly (88 overall, 45th), Mitch Marner (89 overall, 39th), and John Tavares (90 overall, 18th).
It’s safe to say that a lot of players around the NHL will fluctuate in and out of the top 50 for this upcoming game, but there’s a strong case to be made for a lot of Maple Leafs players to have their ratings altered after their performances this season, whether it be higher or lower.
Let’s look at some of the notable player ratings that I can see changing in the upcoming release this year. (Stats courtesy of NaturalStattrick).
Frederik Andersen – 87 (NHL 20 Rating: 88)
Frederik Andersen has been one of the most consistent goaltenders in the NHL for the past five seasons, and despite having a series of tough stretches for the Maple Leafs in what was very inconsistent first half for the entire team, Andersen’s statistics have not drastically changed enough for him to have many alterations to his rating.
A .909 SV% along with a 2.85 GAA on a team that almost never had their ideal defensive lineup for a large portion of the season, while also having injury issues, does not waiver nearly as much criticism as he had.
Contextually speaking, the games that Andersen did underperform in were crucial for positioning the Toronto Maple Leafs in a playoff spot as they jockeyed with Florida for majority of the season, but I would be surprised to see if his rating significantly changed in the upcoming game.
Morgan Rielly – 87 (NHL 20 Rating: 88)
Morgan Rielly battled with a lot of adversity over this past season. After a strong 14 points through 14 games through the month of September, Rielly recorded just six points through 14 games in October, in what was an uncharacteristically bad month for the Leafs, and would finish with only 3 goals and 27 points through 47 games.
Rielly seemed to be playing a lot less offensively driven than previous seasons, as he is typically known for being able to put defenders on their heels when skating end-to-end, but averaged under 0.1 rush attempts per-60 minutes in the games he played in comparison to last season’s 0.69 attempts per-60.
Rielly’s numbers also drastically dropped in his ability to create offensive chances for his teammates, as he went from averaging 0.69 rebounds created per-60 minutes in the 2018-19 season to 0.29 in 2019-20.
Rielly came back to play just one game after recovering from a fractured foot which he suffered in early January in a game against the Panthers, and instantly played a pivotal role for the Leafs defensive core in a crucial 2-1 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Rielly still did not look 100% back to regular speed, and arguably looked as if he was brought back too early. Although, Rielly is a smart enough player that he is able to adapt to a lot of different in-game scenarios where he can be effective without being the best version of himself.
Due to the massive decrease in points, coming off of his a career-best 74-point season, while also being absence for a significant period of time, I cannot see how EA will not be lowering Rielly’s overall, despite his obvious value to the Leafs defensive core.
William Nylander – 88 (NHL 20 Rating: 85)
Expect to see William Nylander with a much better player card in NHL 21 this September. With 59 points in 68 games, Nylander was on pace to record a career-high 71 points this season after being criticized for his brutal play last season after signing a six year extension with an AAV of $6.9 million.
There was a point during the year where you could argue that Nylander was the best forward on the Toronto Maple Leafs, which included a six game stretch in November where he recorded eight goals and 11 points.
In comparison to his contemporaries with similar point production, there is no reason why Nylander’s rating shouldn’t improve immensely. Jonathan Toews (88 Overall) and Johnny Gaudreau (90 Overall) are both within one point of William Nylander, and are both significantly higher.
While this may not seem like a big difference to those who aren’t familiar with the NHL gaming franchise, high-80 to lower-90 overall players are considered to be among the best in the league.
To put in perspective, Connor McDavid was ranked number one in the top 50 players in the game, and he is a 94 overall. While I’m very aware that William Nylander is nowhere close to the talent and skill that Connor McDavid possesses, this is the first of many instances where you can see the rating system is flawed.
It’s also important to remember that recency bias has always played a significant role in how EA has rated their players, and Nylander has proven himself to be a dominant offensive force at all areas of the ice. Whether or not this will stay consistent for the coming seasons remains to be seen, but he deserves an upgrade this year for sure.
John Tavares – 89 (NHL 20 Rating: 90)
While his offensive numbers have remained generally consistent, for Tavares to remain at a 90 overall would be pretty surprising. Tavares was on pace for 33 goals this season which was 14 less than last year, likely due to the 12 games he missed this season with a fractured finger, but his defensive numbers are the biggest reason behind my prediction.
In the 2018-19 season, Tavares had one of the highest goals against per-60 minutes stats on the Maple Leafs with 2.68, being ninth on the squad, and has gone up to third in that category this season as he sits at 3.34 GA/60.
Another stat that reinforces Tavares’s defensive woes this season is in relation to where he took majority of his faceoffs, and where his shifts began. Second to the neutral zone, which dominates every NHL player in this category, John Tavares started 35% of his shifts in the offensive zone (Neutral zone: 43%, Defensive Zone: 22%).
Despite starting majority of his shifts at the other end of the ice, Tavares also had the worst on-ice save percentage of any forward on Toronto (89.92%) just behind rookie defensemen Rasmus Sandin (2nd, 88.59 on-ice sv%, 35 less GP than Tavares), and Timothy Liljegren (1st, 84.62 on-ice sv%, 52 less games played).
Being a centre, which has historically demanded more defensive responsibility by nature of the position, while also playing on a team that never had a good defensive core the whole year, these numbers are semi-unnacceptable.
I say semi just because of that very reason; not having a good defensive core the whole year. Due to an insane amount of injuries, a lot of youth, and even the goaltending holding some of the blame, these numbers will inevitably be inflated, but we’ve seen better from Tavares in the past to expect more out of him.
Mitch Marner – 90 (NHL 20 Rating: 89)
Mitch Marner has been able to remain as one of the best playmakers in the league for the past three seasons, and despite missing 11 games due to injury, he still remains second on the Maple Leafs in scoring behind Auston Matthews.
Marner was fourth in the NHL last season in assists with 68 and put up 94 points, earning him an 89 overall rating in NHL 20. This past season, Marner finished off with 51 helpers, making it his fourth consecutive season leading the Maple Leafs in assists in his young career.
He is arguably my favourite player to use in the video game. His speed and creativity on the ice are portrayed pretty equally in the virtual version, and with his performance this season, he earns a plus one in my books.
Auston Matthews – 92 (NHL 20 Rating: 90)
The NHL 20 cover boy will definitely be getting an upgrade in this next game, because there are still so many attributes in this year’s virtual version of Auston Matthews that deserve an upgrade.
First, having his balance rated at an 88 is criminal. Matthews has been able to remain composed and transfer so much power in off-balance shots that compromise his original shooting position. In addition to this, I would also upgrade his strength (88) and aggressiveness (80) attributes by a significant amount. This season we saw Matthews use his body on a number of occasions in order to knock defenders off of the puck and hem them in the defensive zone to cause turnovers.
The highest player with a 92 overall rating in NHL 20 is Nikita Kucherov, and the highest 91 overall is Patrick Kane. Matthews finished 42nd in points last season and still finished top 20 in goals despite missing 14 games due to injury, and has taken a massive jump in offensive production, now ninth in the NHL in points behind guess who? Kane and Kucherov.
Next. Top Ten Leafs Prospects (2020 Update). dark
To think that Matthews could potentially be a 92 overall at just 22-years-old is insane. While it is yet to happen, if he keeps this torrid pace of improvement as his career progresses, everyone will be picking the Leafs as their team in their next game of Chel.