The Toronto Maple Leafs have a very intriguing free agent on their roster.
Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Travis Dermott will need a new contract when or if this season comes to an end.
Because he has spent most of his entry-level deal on the third pairing, and because he hasn’t put up a lot of offense, he should be fairly cheap to sign.
But his contract presents an interesting opportunity for the Leafs, and if they play their cards right they could have one of the NHL’s most valuable players on a per dollar basis in a couple of years.
Toronto Maple Leafs and Travis Dermott
Travis Dermott’s bargaining position is weak. As an RFA there is no market for his services and he’s unlikely to be given an offer sheet.
His best bet, if his goal is to maximize his earnings, is to sign a one-year deal that gives him a chance to move higher in the lineup and make a name for himself.
This carries risks ( injuries), however, and therefore Dermott may be open to signing a long-term deal.
Most of the time you don’t want to lock in players to long term deals unless they are elite players. At this point, Travis Dermott is not an elite player (although he isn’t far off, and arguably is putting up elite results from a sheltered role).
However, compared to other defenseman his age who have played roughly the same amount of time in the NHL, he is ranked among the best if you look at his overall stats profile.
If you look at all defenseman in the NHL over the last three years, Travis Dermott ranks fairly high in several categories. Obviously this is partly because he plays third-pairing minutes, but keep in mind he’s coming in ahead of almost all other defenseman who play similar roles.
Dermott is 27th in Corsi percentage out of 167 defenseman who have played 2000 minutes over the last three seasons.
39th in shots-for percentage, 16th in goals-for percentage, 35nd in expected-goals percentage.
These are impressive numbers, and if the Leafs can get a cheap long-term deal because his offensive numbers aren’t great, they’ll be able to reap great rewards.
For one year, you could probably give Travis Dermott $2.5 million dollars. But what if you offered him $3.5 over five, or even $4 million over seven years?
The only reason he isn’t already worth that is that NHL contracts are largely handed out based on offensive stats. The risk that you’d sign this deal and he wouldn’t be worth at least what you’re paying him is low.
But the chance that you could end up with one of the NHL’s best contracts is very real. (All stats naturalstattrick.com).
Dermott could end up being a top pairing defenseman, and if you look him in for the remainder of his twenties by giving him much more than he’s currently worth, it’s the kind of risk vs reward gamble that can rally pay off in a salary cap league.
The Toronto Maple Leafs should look at what it would take to get Dermott locked in at five, six and seven year deals. Signing him long-term might just turn into a homerun.