Projecting the Contracts for Every RFA and UFA on the Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a few players due for a new contract and here we will look into what their new contracts are projected to be.
The twin’s Josh and Luke at Evolving Hockey have put together a fantastic model for player contract projections. So with those projections, I will take a look at what the Toronto Maple Leafs players who are up for contract are expected to sign for with the model.
First would like to point out that the makeup of the model is covered in the glossary page on the EvolvingHockey site if you are interested in looking into it further.
The contract projects are based upon two separate entities, the first being the expected term of the player’s contract and the second being the expected salary cap % (percentage of the salary cap ceiling).
Toronto Maple Leafs Contract Projections
The models both use a system that weighs in the previous three years a player has played in the NHL.
This obviously only accounts for players who have played in the NHL in the past 3 seasons and not someone like Mikheyev for example who would be weighed only on his latest season in the NHL.
With this here is a snapshot of the factors that are accounted for to different degrees, TOI, Goals, Primary Assists, Game Score, Position, Age Tier, Contract Status (UFA/RFA), Signing Period, Signed with Prior Team (yes/no) and many more that go into the model.
For all of the cap hit projections listed, they account for a salary cap of $84 million.
All of the data will be from the Evolving Hockey website.
Hopefully, that is enough information to grasp on what goes into the contract projections.
Moving on we will break down both the RFA’s and UFA’s the Leafs have to re-sign this summer.
Restricted Free Agents. dark. Next
Restricted Free Agents
In case you are uncertain, restricted free agents (RFAs) are almost under full team control, the only way they can leave is through an offer sheet or a trade, however, the former never happens.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a number of RFA’s which we will break down. Those include Travis Dermott, Ilya Mikheyev, Dennis Malgin, and Frederik Gauthier.
Travis Dermott
At 23 years old coming off an ELC it will be very interesting to see where the Leafs go with Travis Dermott this summer.
Dermott has been a real solid defenseman for this team and personally, I think he is a key player in the organization moving forward. I actually wrote a piece on him earlier in the year where I broke down his game.
Back to the contract talk, here is where Dermott projects to sign at:
The predicted term for Dermott is 2 years with a 41% chance of that occurring. With that, they estimate that Dermott will sign for around $1.843Million.
The chances of Dermott signing his next most likely contracts are as follows:
1 year at 13% for $1.824 Million
3 year at 12% for $2.077 Million
4 year at 7% for $3.325 Million
5 year at 11% for $3.893 Million
6 year at 9% for $3.845 Million
7 year at 5% for $3.889 Million
If Dubas were to sign any of these contracts listed, I would be very pleased. I think Dermott is really underrated based on the fact he does not produce a plethora of points.
Ilya Mikheyev
The 26-year-old Russian stud known as “souperman” has been one of the season’s largest successes.
Coming from the KHL, most did not have high expectations for him based on the fact that most of the Leafs former European imports have not been even mildly successful.
But Mikheyev has proved he is a legit top-9 talent and possibly even top-6 talent.
The tough part with projecting Mikheyev’s contract is he only has a sample of 39 games in the NHL. This is even an issue when it comes to negotiations and why I said possibly a top-6 talent without confidence because the sample of Mikheyev is not very strong so we do not know exactly what he is at the NHL level yet.
Personally I do believe the model has Mikheyev’s contract as slightly too high given the sample size issue but we will still break down what the model has Mikhevey signing at.
The most likely Mikhevey is predicted at signing for is for 3 years at 34% at around $3.186Million.
The next most likely scenarios include:
1 year at 16% for $2.429 Million
2 years at 25% for $2.169 Million
4 years at 21% for $3.732 Million
The rest of the terms come under 2% so we will not cover those.
Personally, my expectation is that Mikheyev will sign for 1 or 2 years.
Especially since they will have to pay him a lot more for the third year based on the model and the Toronto Maple Leafs will be in a cap crunch again. It would also make sense since we should be confident in his NHL ability with the small sample size.
Denis Malgin
Another 23-year-old player coming up this summer is newly acquired Denis Malgin who has not been too flashy in his time in Toronto or throughout tenure in the NHL but he will likely get a raise.
Here is where the model projects Malgin to sign at:
The most likely contract for Malgin is 2 years at 49% for 1.618 Million
The next most likely outcomes are as follows:
1 year at 34% for $1.164 Million
3 years at 10% for $2.077 Million
There is nothing much to talk about here, I do not think this is a very important deal. Dubas will squeeze Malgin in the cap if he can, if he can not, Malgin will not be a large loss.
Frederik Gauthier
The one and only GOAT, the 6’5” 239 pound 4th line center is up again for a large contract.
There is not too much to talk about with the low event center so we will dive right into his contract projections.
Gauthier is expected to sign for 1 year at 60% for $953,500.
The next most likely scenario at 25% is a 2-year deal at $1.046 Million.
I fully expect the GOAT to be back for at least another season providing some fourth-line center depth once again.
That rounds up all of the notable RFA’s the Leafs have to sign this summer so we will move on to the UFA class.
Unrestricted Free Agents. dark. Next
There are a few UFA’s the Toronto Maple Leafs may or may not re-sign, I will break them down in order from most likely to re-sign.
Other team’s interest in these players will determine whether or not most of these players re-sign or not, given they can leave freely and go to any team that is interesting and willing to pay for their services.
The UFA’s the Leafs have include, Jason Spezza, Kyle Clifford, Cody Ceci, and Tyson Barrie.
Jason Spezza
The first and the one that everyone loves is the 37-year-old veteran Jason Spezza who has been dynamite for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season.
Before we break down what Speeza projects to sign at, there have been reports that Spezza is willing to sign for one year at league minimum so these projections may end of higher than actual because of Speeza’s loyalty.
However, Spezza is projected to sign at 1 year at 47% for $1.707 Million.
If Spezza is willing to sign for league minimum as reported, he will be signed for well under his market value which seems to be a good bet to have as Chris Johnston has reported.
Kyle Clifford
The brute force Kyle Clifford who brings a true element of grit to this young roster is due for a contract this summer.
At 29 years old it would be risky to sign any sort of long term deal for the bottom-6 forward who will regress, especially given his skillset.
That said, as a player who does not put up too many points, his contract projections are not anything outrageous.
His most likely contract is pegged for 2 years at 32% for $1.508 Million.
His next most likely contracts are as follows:
1 year at 15% for $1.385 Million
3 years at 21% for $2.136 Million
4 years at 15% for $2.945 Million
5 years at 13% for $3.485 Million
The rest of the projections are under 2% so they are not notable enough.
Overall if the Leafs are able to sign Clifford for a two-year deal, I would be happy since he would not be too old when the contract is up and the cap hit is not a cap killer.
It will ultimately be up to Clifford if he wants to stay with the Toronto Maple Leafs because other teams who are looking for grit will be interested in him. With the grit element in Clifford’s game, I would not be surprised if his contract ends up higher then the model projects.
Cody Ceci
Cody Ceci has been Leafs fans target for most of the season and most fans are not too fond of him. He displays little NHL ability and has clearly been played above his skillset, on top of making obvious mistakes that lead to goals against.
This to me was Dubas’s biggest mistake as a general manager, signing Ceci who clearly is not a very good player any way you look at things. Many say he was forced to sign Ceci but the evidence suggests otherwise and it would be a stretch to say so.
Well, I do not expect the Leafs to re-sign Ceci we will still go over his contract projections.
The model has Ceci’s most likely contract pegged at 26% for 3 years at $4.445Million
The next most likely outcomes are:
1 year at 17% for $1.894 Million
2 years at 15% for $2.821 Million
4 years at 20% for $4.116 Million
5 years at 9% for $4.438 Million
6 years at 7% for $5.244 Million
The rest are under 2% so not notable enough to list out.
If the Leafs sign any of these projected deals in the summer I will lose plenty of faith in management at this point. Those deals would likely bring negative intrinsic value to the roster.
Again, I do not fully expect the Leafs to re-sign Ceci but it is a possibility.
Tyson Barrie
Last but not least is Tyson Barrie, who was probably the most controversial Leaf player this season.
I doubt the Leafs are in the business of re-signing Tyson Barrie especially after extending Muzzin.
Personally I think the Leafs would be stupid to even think about re-signing Barrie given how little value he actually brings to the team and how overvalued he is because of points.
However, we will still break down what Barrie is projected to sign as a UFA this summer.
The most likely scenario is an 8-year deal at 27% for $8.206 Million.
The next most likely outcomes are as follows:
1 year at 3% for $4.943 Million
2 years at 3% for $6.212 Million
3 years at 7% for $6.445 Million
4 years at 8% for $6.523 Million
5 years at 20% for $7.393 Million
6 years at 9% for $7.056 Million
7 years at 24% for $7.378 Million
As you can see, Barrie is projected to sign a longer-term deal with a very high cap hit, and that is something I would not even think about signing if I were Dubas. In fact, neither of these contracts is something I would think about.
There are some teams that may be willing to overpay for a player like Barrie, Vancouver is one that comes to mind. I expect the Leafs to not re-sign Barrie but they are the ones who traded for him last offseason so you can never be certain.
Outlook
These players are nothing like the players the Toronto Maple Leafs already have signed but it seems like Travis Dermott and Ilya Mikheyev have large roles in the roster buildup moving forward so it will be interesting to see what the Leafs do with them.
The other players listed are no players that are essential to the roster makeup that the Leafs have, neither will end up as a core player so I would not be surprised if many find their way out of Toronto especially the UFA’s.
Next. Leafs Should Not Sign This Player. dark
It will be interesting to see if Dubas ends up overpaying for his players like he has done in the past or if he has he improved his negotiating skills. We will probably have to wait until July to figure out the answer to that question.