There are a few UFA’s the Toronto Maple Leafs may or may not re-sign, I will break them down in order from most likely to re-sign.
Other team’s interest in these players will determine whether or not most of these players re-sign or not, given they can leave freely and go to any team that is interesting and willing to pay for their services.
The UFA’s the Leafs have include, Jason Spezza, Kyle Clifford, Cody Ceci, and Tyson Barrie.
Jason Spezza
The first and the one that everyone loves is the 37-year-old veteran Jason Spezza who has been dynamite for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season.
Before we break down what Speeza projects to sign at, there have been reports that Spezza is willing to sign for one year at league minimum so these projections may end of higher than actual because of Speeza’s loyalty.
However, Spezza is projected to sign at 1 year at 47% for $1.707 Million.
If Spezza is willing to sign for league minimum as reported, he will be signed for well under his market value which seems to be a good bet to have as Chris Johnston has reported.
Kyle Clifford
The brute force Kyle Clifford who brings a true element of grit to this young roster is due for a contract this summer.
At 29 years old it would be risky to sign any sort of long term deal for the bottom-6 forward who will regress, especially given his skillset.
That said, as a player who does not put up too many points, his contract projections are not anything outrageous.
His most likely contract is pegged for 2 years at 32% for $1.508 Million.
His next most likely contracts are as follows:
1 year at 15% for $1.385 Million
3 years at 21% for $2.136 Million
4 years at 15% for $2.945 Million
5 years at 13% for $3.485 Million
The rest of the projections are under 2% so they are not notable enough.
Overall if the Leafs are able to sign Clifford for a two-year deal, I would be happy since he would not be too old when the contract is up and the cap hit is not a cap killer.
It will ultimately be up to Clifford if he wants to stay with the Toronto Maple Leafs because other teams who are looking for grit will be interested in him. With the grit element in Clifford’s game, I would not be surprised if his contract ends up higher then the model projects.
Cody Ceci
Cody Ceci has been Leafs fans target for most of the season and most fans are not too fond of him. He displays little NHL ability and has clearly been played above his skillset, on top of making obvious mistakes that lead to goals against.
This to me was Dubas’s biggest mistake as a general manager, signing Ceci who clearly is not a very good player any way you look at things. Many say he was forced to sign Ceci but the evidence suggests otherwise and it would be a stretch to say so.
Well, I do not expect the Leafs to re-sign Ceci we will still go over his contract projections.
The model has Ceci’s most likely contract pegged at 26% for 3 years at $4.445Million
The next most likely outcomes are:
1 year at 17% for $1.894 Million
2 years at 15% for $2.821 Million
4 years at 20% for $4.116 Million
5 years at 9% for $4.438 Million
6 years at 7% for $5.244 Million
The rest are under 2% so not notable enough to list out.
If the Leafs sign any of these projected deals in the summer I will lose plenty of faith in management at this point. Those deals would likely bring negative intrinsic value to the roster.
Again, I do not fully expect the Leafs to re-sign Ceci but it is a possibility.
Tyson Barrie
Last but not least is Tyson Barrie, who was probably the most controversial Leaf player this season.
I doubt the Leafs are in the business of re-signing Tyson Barrie especially after extending Muzzin.
Personally I think the Leafs would be stupid to even think about re-signing Barrie given how little value he actually brings to the team and how overvalued he is because of points.
However, we will still break down what Barrie is projected to sign as a UFA this summer.
The most likely scenario is an 8-year deal at 27% for $8.206 Million.
The next most likely outcomes are as follows:
1 year at 3% for $4.943 Million
2 years at 3% for $6.212 Million
3 years at 7% for $6.445 Million
4 years at 8% for $6.523 Million
5 years at 20% for $7.393 Million
6 years at 9% for $7.056 Million
7 years at 24% for $7.378 Million
As you can see, Barrie is projected to sign a longer-term deal with a very high cap hit, and that is something I would not even think about signing if I were Dubas. In fact, neither of these contracts is something I would think about.
There are some teams that may be willing to overpay for a player like Barrie, Vancouver is one that comes to mind. I expect the Leafs to not re-sign Barrie but they are the ones who traded for him last offseason so you can never be certain.
Outlook
These players are nothing like the players the Toronto Maple Leafs already have signed but it seems like Travis Dermott and Ilya Mikheyev have large roles in the roster buildup moving forward so it will be interesting to see what the Leafs do with them.
The other players listed are no players that are essential to the roster makeup that the Leafs have, neither will end up as a core player so I would not be surprised if many find their way out of Toronto especially the UFA’s.
It will be interesting to see if Dubas ends up overpaying for his players like he has done in the past or if he has he improved his negotiating skills. We will probably have to wait until July to figure out the answer to that question.