Can the Toronto Maple Leafs Beat the Lightning In Round One?

The Toronto Maple Leafs appear to be locks to make the playoffs.

But assuming they make the spring dance, can the Toronto Maple Leafs knock off the Tampa Bay Lightning?

The Lightning appear to be one of the best teams of all time, and at least the best team ever assembled in the salary cap era.

Do the Toronto Maple Leafs have any hope?

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Boston holds a nine point lead on Tampa.

It appears that barring something crazy going down, the Bruins will skate to the Atlantic Division title and open up against a Wild Card team.

Tampa will get second in the Atlantic – again, barring something crazy – because they currently hold a nine point advantage over the Leafs.

The Leafs hold a five point advantage over the Panthers, and while there are no guarantees, the odds of them making it are good.

That means the most likely scenario is that the Leafs play Tampa in the first round.

Putting aside the fact that I would rather the Leafs have an easier opponent, I have to say it’s completely idiotic that the NHL has a playoff format that has repeatedly pitted two of the best teams in the NHL against each other in the first round.

Whether it’s Washington vs Pittsburgh or Toronto vs Boston or Tampa, this is a situation that has occurred too many times in recent years.

If not for a somewhat fluky win by St.Louis over Boston last year in the Cup Finals, you could have made the argument that Boston’s toughest series was their first round matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs.  (And results aside, that is the truth of it).

But back to the main question: Can the Leafs beat the Bolts?

Not as is.

If, however, the Leafs get healthy and Freddie Andersen plays half decently, they’ve got a good chance.

Tampa beat Toronto 7-3 back in October, but a short-handed Leafs team just dusted the Bolts last week.

I realize there is no way to “what if” your way to Toronto being a favorite here, but it was estimated earlier this week that bad goaltending had cost the Leafs eight points in the standings this year (I can’t remember where I read that, but it’s speculative anyways).

Those eight points would put the Leafs a single point back of Tampa, despite not playing a single game this year with their optimal lineup.

If the Leafs can enter the playoffs with Morgan Rielly healthy, all four of their superstars healthy and get good goaltending, I think they have a chance.

They’ll be on the road.  They’ll be up against a really hungry team that lost in the first round last year.

So it will be tough.  But The Leafs actually match up well with Tampa.  If healthy I firmly believe it is a matchup of the NHL’s two best teams.

The formatting is ridiculous, but the Leafs have shown under Keefe that even with a shorthanded roster they are one of the league’s best teams.

I think they’ll be a solid underdog, but given their talent, the coin-flip nature of the NHL, and the fact that something is, eventually, bound to go their way, I think they can do it.