Toronto Maple Leafs All But Guaranteed to Make Playoffs

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Florida Panthers on Thursday night, all but assuring a trip to the post-season.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have five regular players out of their lineup – almost 30% of their lineup – so there are no guarantees, but its starting to approach a sure thing.

The odds that the Leafs make it are extremely high. 

Odds vary, but I’ve seen them as high as 87%.

Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Odds

The Leafs have 17 games remaining, including tonight’s match against the  Vancouver Canucks.

They currently hold a four point lead over the Panthers for third in the Atlantic, and Florida has 18 games left.

If the Leafs were not currently in third in the Atlantic, they would be holding down the second wild card spot, ahead of the Blue Jackets and Hurricanes, and behind the Islanders.

Part of the reason the Leafs odds are so good is that they have two ways to make it, while some of the teams they are competing against are terrible.

The Panthers made a disastrous trade at the deadline, and Bobrovsky inspires no confidence in net.

The Hurricanes have been destroyed by injuries, while the Islanders are one of the NHL’s worst teams since December after getting off to an insanely (lucky) hot start.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets, as nice of a story as they’ve been, are a terrible team to start with, and have suffered a ridiculous amount of injuries as well.  Only preposterously unsustainable goaltending has gotten them this far, and you can expect them to fade as the season goes on.

The fact is, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a high-shot at the post season because the teams they’re fighting with are pretty garbage.

Add in the fact that the Leafs are likely to see better goaltending than they’ve so far got this season, and things are looking up, despite all the injuries.

Injuries.

The one thing that could bring them down.  Take tonight’s game against the Canucks.  Normally the Toronto Maple Leafs would be a massive favorite, but with five guys out of their starting lineup, it’s pretty much a toss-up.

The Leafs will start Andersen, while the Canucks will likely go with Thatcher Demko.

The Leafs will go back to six defensemen tonight, putting Denis Malgin back in the lineup after he sat out last game in favour of a seventh defenseman.

Timothy Liljegren will come out of the lineup, and the Leafs will go with Calle Rosen and Martin Marincin in his place.

The game is in Toronto at seven PM on the CBC.