A Toronto Maple Leafs Frederik Andersen Hot Take
The Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t lived up to expectations and many blame their struggles on goaltending. We explain why Frederik Andersen isn’t a problem.
The Toronto Maple Leafs fanbase can be very vocal and passionate on social media. It takes many forms. Recently, the noise has been the placing of blame for the difficulties the Leafs had over their last stretch of games.
Listening to the fans on social media would have you believe that there are two people who have caused the Maple Leafs to stumble. Fingers are pointed at the team’s starting goalie Frederik Andersen and general manager Kyle Dubas. Simply put, those people are wrong.
Frederik Andersen
There’s no doubt that Andersen has underperformed. He has proven that he can be one of the best goalies in the league on any given night. After all, this was the first year that he’s been recognized by being named to an All-Star game.
His stats tell the tale of a player who is having the worst season of his career. After playing three consecutive campaigns of taking the net in at least 60 games, his numbers have dropped. In 47 games played this season, Andersen has faced 1,431 shots and let 128 of them get past him for a goal.
He owns a save percentage of .906 and a goals-against-average of 2.98. That’s in contrast to his career .916 save percentage and 2.64 goals-against-average.
Some may attribute his slide in dominance to his workload and the possibility that he has now reached 30 years old. That certainly isn’t the only problem.
On a night when the hockey world had a big laugh at the Leafs expense thanks to their loss to the Toronto Marlies Zamboni driver, a lot was revealed. When the Carolina Hurricanes managed to beat Toronto with David Ayres it exposed a bigger problem.
The Rest of the Toronto Maple Leafs
With the exception of one game against the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Toronto Maple Leafs have had a big issue with their compete level. Despite all the talent they have on their roster they have let other teams exploit every one of their flaws.
Toronto is 1-7-3 in their last 11 games. In their last 20 games, they’re 5-12-3. Even with their Sheldon Keefe now running things, apathy seems to have set in.
Recently, the Toronto Maple Leafs have appeared careless and on different pages. They have allowed their opponents to pin them in their own zone and look foolish with their decision making. This poor play may be best exemplified by taking a close look at the analytics, specifically, the High Danger Chances Against (HDCA).
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Toronto Maple Leafs are 20th in the league in this category. They have an HDCA per 60 minutes of 11.06 at 5-on-5. At even strength, it’s slightly worse at 11.16, which ranks the team at 21st in the league.
Power Play
Even on the powerplay, the Leafs are still giving their opponents more opportunities than they should. They’re right at the bottom of the pack on this special teams play, with the sixth-worst HDCA/60. One would expect that their High Danger Chances For (HDCF) to be strong thanks to all their talent but yet it’s not much better. They rank 22nd with 18.09 HDCF/60.
A reason the Buds are giving up so many high danger opportunities could be because of their sloppy play. The best way to track that is by examining their turnover stats.
Turnovers are tracked for both teams in a game. This allows the statistic to be measured by both giveaways and takeaways. When you subtract the takeaways from the giveaways it provides a turnover differential. For the season, the Maple Leafs have had a very poor turnover differential, especially when broken down individually.
There are only two players on the Leafs roster who have a positive double-digit turnover differential. They are Auston Matthews (28) and Ilya Mikeyev (10). Beyond that, only seven other skaters are positive in this category while 21 players are negative. That includes every single one of their defensemen. Eight players have a dash preceding double-digits. The worst of which are Justin Holl (-31), Tyson Barrie (-38), and Jake Muzzin (-39). As a whole, the team is 14th in the league.
This just helps identify that the team in front of Andersen has not been at their best. It has also meant that the goaltender faces not just more shots but more difficult ones, especially when the turnovers occur in the Leafs own end.
In a game where the team’s compete level was high, on Feb. 20 against the Penguins, the Leafs not only got a win, but Andersen had a shutout. He looks a lot better when the team in front of him competes to their potential. This is not a situation caused by him or his GM. Andersen’s teammates need to take responsibility here.
Jordan Binnington
If Andersen were playing for another team, one could expect his numbers to look significantly better. For proof, look at the goalie from Richmond Hill, ON, Jordan Binnington.
The team in front of him, the St Louis Blues rank third in the league in turnover differential and play a very strong lockdown style in their own end.
The Blues have also been much better on the season at their HDCA/60. They are ninth in the league in this category at even strength and 5-on-5.
They are giving up exactly one fewer high danger chance per game than Toronto. It might not appear to be a big deal, but over the course of a season it really adds up.
This has helped Binnington look better than he may actually be. For the season, he owns a .911 save percentage and a 2.60 goals-against average.
Playing with the Blues has been so good for Binnington that he not only won a Stanley Cup but he received 21 votes for the Hart Memorial Trophy and nine votes for the Vezina Trophy last year. This is a player who’s had worse numbers at the lower levels of OHL and AHL than he currently does in the NHL.
This is not to say that Binnington isn’t a fine goaltender. Clearly, he plays very well. He just happens to have benefits that don’t appear to exist for Andersen. The point, of course, is that while Binnington is aided from his team’s play, Andersen suffers as a result of it. Before anyone points a finger at Andersen they first need to consider the circumstances he faces every time he stands between the pipes with the Maple Leafs.
The Solution for the Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs fans need to resist blaming their general manager and starting goaltender for recent struggles. Instead, they need to urge the players to begin implementing a team defense mindset.
The systems that the Leafs are now playing don’t appear to be working. If they’re not going to give a full effort then Keefe needs to do something different. Adopting a new defensive style should help, especially if he doesn’t have much faith in his goaltending.
The Leafs could be drastic about their systems and use a style that is awfully boring to watch but effective. Though it would drive fans mad, the Leafs could be extremely successful playing lockdown hockey using a neutral zone trap.
Playing the trap would have the Leafs clog up the neutral zone forcing their opponents to turn the puck over more often. The Leafs wouldn’t take as many chances attacking the offensive zone and it would result in very few odd-man rushes against them. Since they have elite-level talent on the roster, their players would wait for the right opportunities to pinch and take advantage of their opponents’ mistakes.
The fan base is sure to be critical of this suggestion and would hate to see it in action on the ice but it’s effective and would allow Andersen to look like the star he really is. The fans would be forgiving when the Leafs start posting wins with more consistency.
dark. Next. The Leafs Are Victims of a New Culture
Hopefully, now that the trade deadline has passed and everyone knows their position on the team is secure, they can begin to play with more gusto. With a little more energy and a lot more defense, the Leafs should expect better results both in net and in the box score.