The Toronto Maple Leafs are having a terrible season…
…Would not be a headline it would surprise anyone to read. Fan confidence seems to be at an all time low for the Shanahan era, and the Toronto Maple Leafs teeter on the edges of the playoff race.
But things aren’t really bleak at all.
The Leafs are either the fourth or sixth youngest team in the NHL (depending on which roster they dress on any given night). This is year for of the fabled “five year rebuild,” the roster has had at least one elite player out of their lineup for every single game this year, and they were forced to change coaches after a six game losing streak.
Furthermore, the Leafs are ranked 25th in goaltending so far this season. Andersen is an all-star who is considered among the best in the world, and the team recently traded for Jack Campbell, who is a definite upgrade over what they were getting from Michael Hutchinson.
When you factor all that in, and realize that the Leafs have still been the fifth best team in the NHL since they hired their new coach, I think it strongly suggests that can even better that that.
How mad can we be about a team that strongly projects to be the 5th place team or better in the NHL with its full roster?
So why are people so mad? Shouldn’t a team who fired their coach after a six game losing streak be pretty psyched to be the 5th best team over almost half a season, while learning a new system?
What gives between the reality of the team’s performance and the perception of them and their potential? (All stats naturalstattrick.com).
“Oh well, when we have a healthy lineup I like the chances of a team with John Tavares, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly and Freddie Andersen on it” doesn’t seem like it should be a crazy take.
So what’s wrong?
Toronto Maple Leafs Playing Style
It’s the way the Leafs are playing. They trade chances, take risks and play a higher event game than any other team of this era of hockey.
Fans of hockey have been conditioned for years to revere defensive play.
The Leafs team features zero traditional defensive defensemen. This is about three less (or more) than teams used to dress.
Their “shut-down” duo features a a 4 x 40 point puck-mover who is essentially the King of Corsi, as well as his smooth-skating partner whose best attribute is skating the puck into the offensive zone.
Even their grinders are highly skilled.
The Leafs (since Keefe, and in all situations) allow the 9th most goals in the league per game.
But they are first in goals scored. (Best PP too, by a mile).
The Leafs fans constantly talk about their need for defense. I believe that perception of the Leafs as a terrible defensive team is primarily responsible for the negative view of the team.
The reason is this: If you lose 3-2 because you made a terrible defensive play, people remember it.
It is the main play people think about for two days until the next game.
If a team gets the most goals and allows the 9th most, that’s a lot of goals in their favor. Over time, they will win way more than they lose.
But you will remember every single bad play that causes them to lose.
A team can’t score their way out of trouble every game. But good defensive teams often have trouble scoring enough to win. Goalies are the great equalizer.
The Leafs score way more goals than they allow, and since one day they will be healthier, and since Andersen will almost assuredly find his game, I feel time will prove them to be, not only a great team, but the best team in the NHL, a Cup Winner and a revolutionary team that makes teams reconsider almost everything they do.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have spent 50 years trying to win with a defense first mentality. How has that worked out for you?