5 Reasons the Toronto Maple Leafs Blue-Line Is Better Than You Think

Reasons # 1 and #2

1. The Leafs always get more shot-attempts, shots, scoring chances, and high danger chances than they give up.

Say what you want about their team defense, it is an indisputable fact that teams that get more shots and scoring chances than their opponents are more likely to win than lose.

          2.  The Leafs are keeping their heads above water (3rd in the Atlantic going into Saturday’s game) despite a low PDO.

PDO is the combined total of a team’s shooting and save percentages.  Over a significant sample size a team’s PDO is likely to be 100.  Anything over, and the team is getting lucky, and anything less, and a team is getting unlucky.

Now, this isn’t an exact science and teams can outperform PDO for long periods of time.  The point is that in the history of NHL it has been shown that save percentages over .920 and team shooting percentages in the teens do not last for long.

The Leafs have the 20th highest PDO in the NHL, owing mostly to their 23 ranked goaltending.

The common objection to this stat is that the Leafs goaltending has been bad because the defense has been bad. I know it seem’s counter-intuitive, but if goaltending were totally linked to defense, it would be a lot easier to guess who would be the best goalies in the NHL ever year.

Reason # 3

3. The Leafs allow the same or less dangerous chances than most of the team’s considered to have good defense. 

Since November 21st, when the Leafs played their first game under Sheldon Keefe, here are some shocking statistics:

High Danger Shot-Attempts Allowed Per Game:

Islanders 12.11

Coyotes 11.78

Stars  11.03

Blues 10.47

Those four teams are always noted as great defensive teams by fans and media.

The Toronto Maple Leafs, who are always criticized for their defense, and who have yet to dress their best blue-line lineup, allow 10.72 dangerous shot-attempts per game.

That is less dangerous chances per game than three of the supposed best defensive teams in hockey, and roughly one shot-attempt every four games worse than the Cup Champs.

If that isn’t evidence that the Leafs blue-line problems are far more about perception than reality, I don’t know what to say.

All the supposedly great defensive teams have one thing in common: they get great goaltending.  This makes their defense seem better than it is.

The Leafs haven’t got that yet, but upgrading their blue line won’t contribute very much to whether or not that happens. (All stats naturalstattrick.com).

4. Travis Dermott is too good to lose.

The Toronto Maple Leafs just signed Justin Holl, and assuming the Leafs are signing Muzzin, happy to be paying Barrie almost nothing, that Rielly is a franchise cornerstone,  and they are keeping Sandin, that only leaves Travis Dermott if the Leafs are making changes.

They are loaded at the left side, but if Dermott can play the right side then then you don’t want to lose him.  Even though he’s played some pretty sheltered minutes for his career, he’s put up some brilliant numbers.

Every guy his age whose played the same amount of games is considered a potential superstar and most of those guys have worse stats.

Barring the surprising exodus of Barrie or Holl, it seems that Travis Dermott is the piece you’d have to lose to make that happen.  I don’t see how it’s worth it.

 5.  I like the current personnel.  

The healthy Leafs blue-line that we’ve yet to see contains mouth watering talent.

Rielly-Barrie

Muzzin-Holl

Sandin- Dermott

Every single one of those guys can move the puck and score 40 points.  They all play high-possession games that feature their team having the puck more than their opposition.

It’s the exact blue-line, featuring six puck moving defensemen, that I envisioned when Kyle Dubas first got the job as Leafs GM.

And it’s good to go for years, since Muzzin is the only one who is 30, and he’ll probably age nicely since he’s already slow and he’s still good anyways.

With Muzzin set to sign, the Leafs blue line is taking shape for next year.

Muzzin, Holl, Rielly, Sandin and Liljegren are all locked up.  Travis Dermott is an RFA so unless they trade him, he’ll be back too.

Basically just swap in Liljegren for Barrie and you’re good to go.

I 100% believe the Toronto Maple Leafs can win the Cup with their current blue-line.  The stats assert that they’re very good, despite not even assembling a unit at full power for a single game.

Ultimately, I think the Leafs blueline is fine.   If they want to swing for the fences, and turn Dermott and a forward/prospect into an elite right-side defenseman that allows them to get significantly better, then sign me up.

But barring the addition of a big-name superstar, I think their blue-line is pretty good.  They are coming out on top in most of the games they play, and with Campbell and a rested Andersen, the prospects of getting better goaltending seem strong.

If they want to replace Dermott or Ceci on right side of the third line, I also think that’s reasonable.

I just don’t think the Leafs blue-line is bad. I think it’s massively underappreciated.