The Toronto Maple Leafs Get a Pass for Totally Excusable Loss

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost to the Montreal Canadiens last night in overtime.

For the optimistic Toronto Maple Leafs fan, it was a solid 75% points percentage for two back-to-backs featuring the same goalie.

For the negative Leafs fan, it was a pathetic performance that demands explanation.

I can’t say getting just one shot in the third period is a good thing, but really, if you put this game in context, it’s 100% excusable.

Toronto Maple Leafs – Excuses are Reasons

In the macho world of sports, you aren’t supposed to offer up excuses.  Just git ‘er done, bro!

But really, I think we all know deep down how dumb that is.

The Toronto Maple Leafs were playing their third game in four nights.  They were playing a game that started less than 24 hours after the last one (which went to overtime) finished.

During the 21 hours between games, they also had to travel.

Oh, and they were missing four of their best players, three of which are among the NHL’s best players.

The irony is that the city celebrated the acquisition of a fourth liner and a back-up goalie earlier in the week, but we’re not allowed to say that the injuries to Nylander, Andersen and Rielly affected the team’s performance.

“But Jim, even Kyle Dubas said injuries are no excuse.”

Year he said that, and if he had of said they are he would have been crucified in the press.  Of course he’s going to say that, he’d sound like a whiner if he said anything else.

But that doesn’t make it true.

In professional sports the healthiest competitive team almost always wins the championship.  We pretend that isn’t true, because we want to value grit, determination and other narratives.  But it’s a fact born out of an absolutely ton of data.

Steve Simmons had a screaming headline this morning that read “Record Scoring, Big Salaries are not Equaling Enough Wins for Leafs.”

Now that is sensational, but so, so misleading.

Even including the games that got Mike Babcock fired, and with all their injuries and the 22nd best goaltending in the NHL, the Toronto Maple Leafs are still 5th in Corsi and 11th in expected-goals percentage.

Those are the two best indicators we have for future performance.  Despite injuries and a coaching change, the Leafs project to be one of the NHL’s best teams.   That doesn’t exactly make good headline fodder though, I get it.

Since Keefe was hired, the Leafs are 5th in the NHL by points-percentage.  This despite terrible goaltending and a ridiculous amount of injuries.

Why does this not generate more good press?  The Leafs are doing amazing despite the circumstances.

A healthy Leafs team getting even average goaltending projects to be the NHL’s best team.

This is what math and logic tell us.

Meanwhile, our emotions say “injuries are no excuse.”

Morgan Rielly is a top 5-10 defenseman in the NHL.

Freddie Andersen is a top 5-10 goalie in the NHL.

William Nylander is a top 5-10 right winger in the NHL.

How is a team supposed to win two games in 27 hours that feature 6.5 total periods and several hours of travel? (All stats naturalstattrick.com).

They played great for the first two periods of last night’s game.  In the third, their decimated roster ran out of juice.  This kind of thing happens when humans are used in place of robots.

If there was ever a game a team can be 100% excused for losing, it was last night’s Leafs game.

If anything, their heart and effort deserve our praise.