The Toronto Maple Leafs have added the much talked about back-up goalie.
The Toronto Maple Leafs once again addressed some pressing needs without really paying anything at all do so.
A couple draft picks? A fourth line player that was basically found-money?
Not bad at all.
The Leafs are an improved team this morning, and while we’ve already got reviews of the trade here, and here, I think it’s worth discussing just a little bit more, as it really is an interesting deal.
The Back Up Goalie
If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a hundred times: if the most talked about issue with your team is a back-up goalie, your team is pretty damn good.
Kyle Dubas has taken a ton of heat for not doing better in this department, but the analysis about this leaves a lot to be desired.
Dubas got where he is today in part by a process over results philosophy. The math says that spending limited salary cap money on a player who rarely plays, and whose performance is almost completely unpredictable is a bad move.
People complain about the results, but seem to completely ignore the very sound reasoning behind the string of decisions that led us here.
The Toronto Maple Leafs spent millions of dollars and tons of time developing Garrett Sparks, and it seemed to be paying off. He was the best goalie in the AHL and many considered him a future NHL starter.
The Leafs added 2 players w/ a history of good numbers, in their primes, on short term deals, for near the league minimum, for basically nothing.
— Editor in Leaf (@EditorinLeaf) February 6, 2020
To do this is one thing, but for those players to double as a name brand backup and a tough guy is impressive.
In order to keep him, the Leafs said goodbye to a career back-up who was over 30 years old. Regardless of what happened afterwards, this was the correct move at the time.
Sparks famously bombed, and the Leafs acquired Michael Hutchinson at no cost.
And yes, he was mostly horrible this year, but he also started six straight games for a heavily injured team that quit on their coach in the second game of back-to-backs.
While Hutchinson hasn’t won over very many fans, in games when he’s started and the situation hasn’t been stacked against him, he has actually been adequate.
And while that isn’t good enough, you have to consider that the cost to upgrade needs to be measured against the fact that you can’t really predict what any goalie will do.
This Trade
Why this trade is so impressive to me, is that the Leafs addressed a need from both a hockey and a PR perspective.
Jack Campbell – due to his unpredictably awesome season last year where he posted a .928 save percentage – is the name brand back-up goalie people will praise Dubas for getting.
But at the same time, he’s in his prime, he’s cost controlled (only slightly above league minimum for two more years) and he didn’t cost very much.
Dubas has a history with Campbell, having had him in junior, and so he probably has a good idea of his abilities.
The worst case here is that Campbell’s bad season continues and he’s no different from what Hutchinson provided. Even in the worst case scenario, he still followed his philosophy of not spending too much on a back-up goalie, while also placating critics who won’t take five minutes to look beyond results.
I mean, the Alex Georgiev thing was never going to happen. Kasperi Kapanen for a back-up goalie? Dream on.
The upside here is enormous. Campbell is 28, and locked up cheap for two years. He has shown he is capable of posting elite NHL numbers, so he’s got a much higher ceiling than Hutchinson.
Other potential ramifications are that Campbell gives the Leafs a plausible Andersen replacement or expansion draft (one year from this summer) fodder.
Kyle Clifford
Kyle Clifford is one of a half dozen fourth line options the Toronto Maple Leafs now have (Spezza, Gauthier, Clifford, Petan, Timashov, Agonisto, Wilson, Aberg, Marchment, etc.).
The hilarious sort of thing here is that Dubas is able to acquire a grinding fighter to appease one part of the fan base and media criticism he (ridiculously) receives, while also adding a player consistent with his philosophy.
Kyle Clifford appears to be a significant upgrade for #LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/Um4YqGOH7w
— Evolving-Hockey (@EvolvingHockey) February 6, 2020
Clifford is a better than average fourth liner who has put up Corsi and expected-goals numbers in the 53-55% for his career. That`s really good.
Realistically, Clifford isn’t really bringing more physicality than Moore did, but he’s slightly bigger and a slightly better player.
I guess he will fight more, but somehow I doubt anyone on Toronto wants him to do that.
What I love about this trade is that it fits the exact mold of any Kyle Dubas trade while simultaneously giving the crowd what they want. If this trade was a movie, it’s a crowd pleasing blockbuster tricks you into learning and thinking.
Ultimately, the Leafs improved their team, and the perception of their team. The cost was minimal, and the rewards offer some upside.
Another impressive thing is how the salary matches up, and how despite being capped out (by spending money on good players and a ton of depth) the Leafs are still able to maneuver and improve their team.
All in all, it appears that Kyle Dubas’ streak of winning every single trade he makes by several dozen miles remains intact.