Toronto Maple Leafs: Kyle Dubas Won His 1st Blockbuster Trade, and It’s Not Even Close

Kyle Dubas has been extremely successful since becoming the general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Under Dubas, the Toronto Maple Leafs retained all five of their young top-six forwards (Nylander, Matthews, Marner, Johnsson, Kapanen) even though almost no one in hockey thought he could.

He added John Tavares, Jake Muzzin and Tyson Barrie.  He drafted Rasmus Sandin and Nick Robertson.

Since he has had the job, there isn’t another GM in the NHL who has added a #1 centre and 2 x top-pairing defensemen.  Add in turning two later picks turning into elite prospects, the team’s complete lack of bad contracts and the fact their entire core is locked up through their primes and it’s hard to find fault with anything Dubas has done.

Not to say he’s been perfect, but as a whole anyone complaining about what he’s done to date just comes off as uniformed and biased.  Some people don’t like the lack of value he puts on the physical/grinding game and so they ignore his successes and long for the days of Matt Martin.

It’s more sad than anything.  I mean, if the notoriously slow to adapt game of hockey is outpacing you……

Regardless, it’s pretty clear Dubas has been a massive success since becoming the NHL’s youngest current general manager.

Today we will discuss his first big blockbuster: the Nazem Kadri for Tyson Barrie trade.

Toronto Maple Leafs GM’s Biggest Trade to Date

The Kadri trade, which was Kadri and Calle Rosen to the Avalanche for Tyson Barrie and Alex Kerfoot has been such a resounding success it’s hard to quantify without sounding hyperbolic.

Deep with wingers, the Leafs couldn’t justify moving Kadri to left wing where he might have continued to be successful in Toronto.  The fact was, there just wasn’t enough ice time with 2 x Elite Centres on the roster to have a player like Kadri on the third line.

It was not an efficient use of talent, so Kadri became their best trade chip.

Calle Rosen has gotten into eight games for Colorado and couldn’t make the Leafs current team.  His inclusion is a non-factor.

Kadri has two years left at a bargain $4.5 cap hit.  Kerfoot was signed as soon as the Leafs got him for three more years at a $3.5 cap hit.

Immediately, the Leafs get four years younger, they save a million per year, and get one extra year of team control.

If the players are even close to each other, it’s a win for the Leafs.

Kadri has a 50.52% Corsi, 48% of the shots, 48% expected goals, 49% high-danger chances and  32 points in 42 games (.76 PPG).

Kefoot has a 52% Corsi, 49% of the shots, 52% expected goals, 51% high-danger chances, and  21 points in 47 games (.44 PPG).

So Kadri scores more, and Kerfoot has better overall numbers. The comparison confirms what we already knew: Kadri is a better offensive player, and Kerfoot is a better defensive player.

Bottom line: Kerfoot’s team does better when he is on the ice than Kadri’s team does.  As for the extra points, Kadri couldn’t play in the same role on Toronto, so mostly likely if they kept him, he’d have lower totals.

I think if the deal was Kadri for Kerfoot straight up, the Leafs would be winners because they have the four-year younger player locked up for longer, and arguably the better overall player.

But what about Tyson Barrie?

For $2.5 million to play on your top PP and first pairing, there are few better values in the NHL.

Barrie has a 53% Corsi, gets 53% of the shots, 51% of the expected goals and 52% of the high-danger chances.  Those are great numbers, but they include the 23 games he played terribly under Mike Babock – he’s been something close to the Leafs best player since Keefe took over.

When paired with Morgan Rielly they’ve gotten 59% of the total goals scored, and have an expected goals rating of 54%.  (All stats naturalstattrick.com).

Those are sick numbers.

Barrie also has five goals and 30 points.

That is correct, the rental portion of this trade has only two points less than Kadri does.

In fact, Barrie is tied with John Carlson, (behind only Roman Josi) for second in 5v5 points by a defenseman since Sheldon Keefe took over the Toronto Maple Leafs.

There can be no debate here.

The Leafs win the trade long-term because they locked up a player who is four years younger, to a longer, cheaper deal and that player is arguably already better than the player they traded to get him.

The bonus part of the trade, the Tyson Barrie  rental, couldn’t possibly be working out better.  Barrie has been one of the best defensemen in the entire NHL since the day Keefe was hired.

He is matching Kadri’s point totals while playing a more important position.

For Kyle Dubas, his first big blockbuster trade is a no-doubt, grand-slam home-run. And that is the objective truth.

I say that as perhaps the world’s biggest fan of Nazem Kadri.