The Odds Of Each Toronto Maple Leafs Player Getting Traded

The NHL trade deadline is on Feb. 24. We break down the probability of each member of the Toronto Maple Leafs roster being traded before the cutoff.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are currently in an interesting position. They have a a good team that seems like it should be ready to compete, but it is also possible that they miss the playoffs all-together.

Their salary cap is maxed out and they have already traded their first round pick for next season.

They are also dealing with a revolving door of injuries. This puts their nightly lineup in flux and makes executing trades that much more difficult.

The Leafs would surely like to upgrade their positions with players who offer greater upside. With the trade deadline approaching, it appears as though there will be action from Kyle Dubas. We identify who might get moved and why.

We make a case for trading every individual player on the roster as well as attempt to provide a realistic look at the possibility that that player’s time in Toronto is up before season’s end. Here are the odds as we see them for each player in alphabetical order by their first name.

Adam Brooks

At age 23, Adam Brooks is still on his entry-level contract and though he was recently returned to the AHL, he is included on this list due to him having played with the Leafs as recently as mid-January.

The centerman has proven that he can be valuable to his team. His presence in the NHL was surprising considering that he is not an overly large player at 5’10” and had just 23 points (eight goals, 15 assists) in 115 games with Regina of the Western Hockey League when he went undrafted in 2014.

Things turned around for Brooks pretty quickly in Junior and he became a fourth-round selection of the Maple Leafs (92nd overall) in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. Last season with the Marlies, he had 40 points in 61 games. He’s now even played seven games with the big club and recorded three assists in that time.

With Brooks a restricted free agent at season’s end and him proving that he has the ability to contribute offensively, there is a strong chance that he could be included in a deal.

His presence could be to sweeten the pot on a transaction for a bigger target. It might even be an AHL deal, where he gets relocated in order to help another club chase the Calder Cup.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 12%

Alexander Kerfoot

The Toronto Maple Leafs were able to bring Kerfoot in from the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for fan favourite, Nazem Kadri.

It was one of the Maple Leafs biggest trades of the decade. Since joining the team, Kerfoot has been producing at a slightly slower pace than he had with his former club. He has, however, been heavily relied upon.

At 25 years old, Kerfoot carries a $3.5 million AAV. This is a number that can be interpreted as a steal if he can sustain his position as a regular top-six forward and there’s no reason to suspect this will change.

His play and cap hit make him a desirable trade target, however, it appears as though Toronto isn’t willing to let Kerfoot go.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 2%

Andreas Johnsson

Andreas Johnsson is in a similar position as Kerfoot.

The left-winger is just two months younger and makes just $100,000 less per year. He is even on a similar pace in point production. The two of them even share the timeline of becoming unrestricted free agents ahead of the 2023-24 season.

Johnsson scored 20 goals in his first full NHL season, and he is only 25. He has one year of first line point production and is signed for his entire prime at what could easily be a team-friendly cap hit.

There is no way that Dubas would want to let Johnsson slip away from the team. Johnsson would, however, help command a fine return for Dubas. This is a reason why his name has been bandied about as someone the Leafs would consider including in a prospective transaction.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 45%

Auston Matthews

The old saying goes, “never say never”. With Auston Matthews, we can with incredible certainty say there is no chance he is moved this season.

The Maple Leafs took a deep sigh of relief when Matthews escaped what might have become a worrisome wrist injury.

They need him in the lineup. He’s not just one of the most valuable players on the team, but in the league. His star shines so brightly that there is no prospect that the Leafs covet over the superstar that they drafted and have helped make the face of the team.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 0%

Cody Ceci

Cody Ceci is in the complete opposite position as Matthews. Ceci is getting paid $4.5 million for this season. It’s more than a third-pairing defenseman should be earning. Without Ceci providing an overly effective defensive game, it would make the most sense for Toronto to trade him.

Any transaction that includes Ceci is certain to have other Maple Leafs included as well. That’s because on his own, Ceci doesn’t carry much value. The Leafs can survive with him on their blueline, but shipping him out would give them cap relief, something they could use for the acquisition of a new player.

If the Leafs make a deal, anticipate seeing Ceci’s name attached.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 75%

Dmytro Timashov

Dmytro Timashov has had his name thrown out often by fans on social media as a piece included in potential trades. This appears to be done because he plays an expendable role that can easily be replaced with the depth that exists on the Marlies. Plus, many overvalue the players on the teams they root for.

Timashov might be traded, but just like Ceci, he isn’t a highly sought after player. He has been considered more valuable for his hitting than scoring. Oddly, many of the same people calling for Timashov to be moved also ask for more grit on the Leafs.

The best argument for shipping out Timashov would be that his entry-level contract expires at season’s end, making him a restricted free agent. Timashov managed to get into Saturday’s game against the Ottawa Senators. He was trusted with 7:15 minutes of ice time where he delivered one check and had a shot on goal.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 16%

Frederik Andersen

Frederik Andersen is the Leafs number one goalie by a wide margin. He has established himself as their starter with Michael Hutchinson having struggled mightily all season.

On this campaign, Andersen has also struggled. Despite his shaky play, he was voted into his first-ever All-Star Game, where he played extremely well. This might have potentially given him the confidence he needed to finish the season being more consistent, helping his team gain entry in the playoffs.

Andersen has clearly been identified as one of the core members of the Maple Leafs. This means that the team will rely on their goalie to play up to his ability. They will ride with the veteran and hope that he can give them what they need.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 0%

Frédérik Gauthier

Frédérik Gauthier was the 21st overall draft pick of the 2013 NHL Entry Draft. He has developed into a regular NHL player, though the process has been slower than surely he and the Leafs would have liked. At age 24 there may be teams who see that development to still be in progress, which would be a draw in wanting to acquire Gauthier.

If there are other franchises who believe that they can get more out of the Goat than he currently provides the Leafs, they may wish to take a chance on the center. The expected return for Gauthier wouldn’t be great. This is a player who is averaging just over nine minutes a game and has a total of ten points this season.

The reason to move Gauthier could be to open a roster spot. This would mean that he could be included in a larger package where he isn’t the desired target. Gauthier could be traded out of necessity if the Leafs bring in a more impactful forward.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 12%

John Tavares

The hometown boy, John Tavares, is in a similar position as Auston Matthews. His decision to play for the Maple Leafs shook the hockey world and in return, Toronto has helped make him one of the faces of the franchise. The best example of this came when he was named the team’s 25th captain in their history. He will continue to dress in blue and white on Feb. 25.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 0%

Justin Holl

Justin Holl has been a player that has been on the rise this season. His budding star was enough to earn him a three-year contract extension. The Leafs clearly like what Holl brings to the rink and rewarded him with a deal that gives him a $2 million AAV. It is precisely the sort of defenseman- contract combination they would be searching for in the offseason. As such, it would be illogical at this time to move Holl.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 5%

Kasperi Kapanen

Kapseperi Kapanen and the Maple Leafs are very fortunate that the winger recently avoided injury. If he was hurt, getting a fair value trade would have been difficult. With him remaining in the lineup, he is a hot commodity.

Hockey Twitter was abuzz on Saturday night when he was a healthy scratch. It was speculated that he was held out with a trade incoming. It turned out that he was sticking around . . . for now.

Kapanen is recognized league-wide as someone who can play as a top-six forward. After signing his three-year $3.2 million AAV extension prior to the start of the season, he is also affordable. This helps make Kapanen one of the Leafs largest trade chips. Whether Toronto pulls the trigger depends mostly on what they can bring back for him.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 45%

Martin Marincin

Martin Marincin has been a pleasant surprise for the Maple Leafs. For his position in the lineup, he has been a surprisingly effective defenseman. He also happens to be an affordable player for the team. Marincin earns $700k this year and the same next season.

Marincin doesn’t necessarily pass the eye test in terms of the way he plays the game. His advanced stats tell another story. A deep dive into those numbers suggest that Marincin is defensively sound and an impactful player for the Leafs.

Giving Marincin the one-year extension he signed in January, was evidence of the Maple Leafs confidence in the blueliner. It appears as though they are prepared to roll with him for the foreseeable future.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 5%

Michael Hutchinson

Michael Hutchinson has been at the center of many rumours surrounding the Maple Leafs. This is because there is no secret to his struggles and the team’s need for a more consistent backup goaltender.

The name linked most often with Hutchinson’s is Alexander Georgiev. It is believed that Dubas had and may still have an interest in the New York Rangers stopper.

Though the demand for Georgiev may be too rich for Toronto, if they were to acquire him, it would likely mean sending Hutchinson the other way. In most scenarios, trading for a goaltender at the deadline means the end of Hutch’s time with the Toronto Maple Leafs (though not necessarily via a trade.)

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 30%

Mitch Marner

Mitch Marner’s potential of being traded does exist, though it too soon for that to happen. Marner is still fresh off a long and drawn out contract negotiation. It netted him a six-year deal worth $65.358 million. This works out to give Marner an AAV of $10.893 million per season.

Even though there are doubters who are staunch in their belief that Marner is overpaid, now is not the time to trade away the crafty winger. He has been one of the highest-scoring players in the NHL since his return and just the sort of man you want on your side.

If Toronto ever does deal him they’ll need to do it before his no-move clause kicks in for the final couple years of his contract.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 0%

Morgan Rielly

There are a pair of reasons why Morgan Rielly isn’t getting dealt at the deadline. He is the cornerstone of the Toronto Maple Leafs defense and he isn’t going to fetch as strong a return in a trade as he would if he wasn’t currently nursing a fractured foot.

Toronto needs Rielly in the lineup as they enter the postseason. Even if he was healthy the chances of him being moved are extremely slim. Hopefully, at the conclusion of his eight-week recovery window, Rielly will make his presence felt and help propel the team to be dominant on the ice.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 0%

Pierre Engvall

Pierre Engvall has been a quality ancillary player for the Toronto Maple Leafs. So far this season, according to hockey-reference.com, he has averaged just over 12 minutes per game.

In that time he has put up decent possession stats. Engvall owns an even-strength Corsi percentage of 52.8, which is 2.0-percent better relative to his team.

At just 23 years of age, there are certainly teams who believe that Engvall could be a good addition to their squad.

Obviously, he wouldn’t be the crown jewel in any major transaction, but he could be used as part of a larger package to help fetch a desired target.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 15%

Rasmus Sandin

The player who was recognized as the best defenseman in the 2020 World Junior Championships has recently become a full-time member of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Thanks to the injuries that plagued the team, they called down to the Marlies and brought up Rasmus Sandin.

Sandin has been a stabilizing force on the blueline. He even added his first NHL goal in the Buds’ blowout win against the Predators on Jan. 27.

While it appears as though the young Dman is safe from being dealt away that might not be true.

There is a minute chance that flipping Sandin could actually bring the Leafs a veteran, more established player. Trading Sandin would be risky because of his high upside, but it could get Toronto a very strong established NHLer that could help them reach the finish line of a Stanley Cup. For Dubas to sign off on a deal, the return would need to be massive.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 1%

Travis Dermott

There is a lot to like about Travis Dermott’s style of play. He is a dynamic defenseman who has been surprisingly efficient.

Dubas, a lover of advance stats, is certainly aware that he has a defenseman putting up exceptional possession numbers. It could have played a factor in Dermott getting the top five-on-five TOI in the Leafs Jan. 29 battle against the Dallas Stars.

While Dermott is highly valued by his bosses in Toronto, he is a better fit to be on the move than Sandin. This is because he is on the final year of his entry-level contract. Dermott is sure to command a big-ticket as a restricted free agent so if the Leafs can turn him into an asset they can use both this year and beyond, he will be forced to pack his bags.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 35%

Trevor Moore

The Toronto Maple Leafs fourth line energizer has recently returned after missing time with a concussion.

Toronto was happy to get Trevor Moore injected back onto their fourth line. His speed helps pin opponents and provide a completely different look from the Leafs when he’s on the ice.

Moore is a cheap forward for the Leafs whom they have locked up until the conclusion of next season. He will be earning $775k with a matching AAV for both this and next season.

While there are more talented players in the league, the Leafs will need three to play on their fourth line. It’s a perfect position for Moore, who could also fill in on the third line if called upon.

Dubas shouldn’t be looking to move Moore and there isn’t much he can ask for in return. For these reasons, it doesn’t make sense for him to be traded. While he could be a throw-in in a deal, it’s hard to see that scenario play out.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 3%

Tyson Barrie

One of the most ridiculous takes on the internet is the idea that Tyson Barrie is not a useful player for the Toronto Maple Leafs and he should be used to lure a big player in a trade. When Keefe replaced Mike Babcock, it helped Barrie return to become the player he was with the Colorado Avalanche.

With a new coach and all the injuries, Barrie has been trusted to play on the Leafs top pairing and has gotten substantial powerplay time. It also appears as though his confidence has returned with his improved play.

With that in mind, it isn’t unreasonable to believe that Dubas might trade Barrie. With the Leafs fighting to stay below the salary cap, chances are that they won’t be able to afford to keep Barrie beyond this season. This just begs the question, should Barrie be considered a rental and finish the season in Toronto?

The answer is “yes”. Barrie is precisely the sort of player that they might otherwise have been looking to acquire before the deadline.

Even though it’s expiring, he has just a $2.75 million cap hit, which helps him fit with the Leafs. As such, he should be appreciated while he’s with the team and be used appropriately to prop up the franchise in the playoffs.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 1%

William Nylander

If the concept of moving Barrie was poor, it’s even more ridiculous to consider trading William Nylander. Nylander has had a bounce-back season and has proven that he is well worth the money he’s making.

Nylander can play on either of the top two lines and elevate the play of his linemates while there. Dubas shouldn’t look to trade him and likely won’t. The GM promised Nylander that so long as he remains at the helm, the Swede will not be moved.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 3%

Zach Hyman

Zach Hyman was badly missed while out of the lineup with a torn ACL. In that time there was great speculation as to how the team would adjust to his return. It turned out that his presence had enormous value.

Recently, Hyman has put himself on pace for a career year.

His best goal total came last season when he put in 21. This year he has scored 14 goals in nearly half the number of games. It appears as though Hyman has come into his own while putting high energy into his play at both ends of the rink.

The Toronto Maple Leafs should hang onto Hyman who they have signed for one more season after this one at the affordable cap hit of $2.25 million. Hyman’s contract is also the reason why the Leafs would have a very difficult time trading him. He has a modified no-trade clause written in.

In order to move Hyman, the team would need to ask him to submit a list of ten teams to which he cannot be moved. Without the whispers of this having already taken place, there’s a good chance that Toronto isn’t shopping Hyman at this time.

Chances of being dealt prior to the trade deadline: 5%

With the odds now laid out for each of the Maple Leafs to be traded, there is also the chance that members of the Toronto Marlies get dealt. Leading that list is likely Jeremy Bracco. Though we won’t know for sure who’s been moved until the dust settles later this month.