The Toronto Maple Leafs are maybe the best team in the NHL.
When even somewhat healthy, under Sheldon Keefe the Toronto Maple Leafs have been absolutely dominant.
From the time the Leafs hired Sheldon Keefe until Jake Muzzin got injured, the Leafs had 24 points in 16 games. During this time, only two teams got more points, and they both played more games and were only one point ahead.
Essentially, they were the best team in the NHL during this time.
While much has been made of a rough week heading into the all-star weekend, the Leafs actually have points in 13 of their last 16 games.
This period of games includes a stretch where they missed their two best defenseman and lost four of five games. Regardless, during this stretch they have a .719 points-percentage, which is above what 30 of the 31 NHL teams have been able to do for the entire season.
I understand that arbitrary endpoint analysis is very problematic, and I’m not trying to prove anything here. I’m just simply pointing out that a team who hits a rough patch when it loses both its best defensemen and still manages to pick up points in 70% of their games is probably going to be a good team when healthy. (stats from naturalstattrick.com).
They’ve also – outside of a couple notable games – received terrible goaltending for basically this entire season. Andersen has consistently put up big numbers behind bad defense throughout his Maple Leafs career, so he is probably going to improve.
Any kind of unbiased, non-emotional analysis of this team must conclude that if healthy and getting league-average goaltending, they are among the NHL’s best teams.
Toronto Maple Leafs Should Be All-In
The Toronto Maple Leafs need to go for it this year.
Obviously they need to hedge their bets, and the uncertainty of the NHL playoff format means that an all-or-nothing approach is foolish, but the team should definitely be looking to win the Stanley Cup this year.
The fact is, while they’ve got decent prospects, they won’t have a Barrie-Muzzin-Rielly blueline next year. Personal opinions about the players aside, all three are very firmly top pairing NHL defenseman by any statistical standard.
There is also the fact that Matthews so far has continued to get better every year. He might have one more season of climbing before he levels off, but based on the careers of almost every single NHL superstar, he is due any time for his career season.
Tavares isn’t declining heavily any time soon, but he likely will experience at least a slight decline between now and a year from now, given his age.
That means that today the Tavares/Matthews combo is likely the best it will ever be.
Freddie Andersen is 30, which means the Leafs might not want to reinvest in him when his contract is up after next year.
This isn’t to say that the Leafs will suddenly be a bad team next year, but in order to fix their roster next summer, they will have to lose one of Muzzin or Barrie, maybe both. They will almost certainly not be able to afford all three of Kerfoot, Johnson and Kapanen.
Ilya Mikheyev – hopefully back before the playoffs – will likely command much more money than his current league minimum. Same goes for Travis Dermott.
The massive depth the Leafs have assembled – Engvall, Spezza, Gaudet, Timashov, Gauthier, Marchment, Brooks, Wilson, and Aberg – is only possible because they are all on single-year contracts.
That goes away after this year.
The Math Says Go For It
1. Successful when relatively healthy.
2. Age of team.
3. Depth.
These things add up to the fact that this is probably the Leafs best year to go for it. Personally, I think they made a mistake of not going harder for it last year (by ditching Hainsey and Marleau earlier in the season like I suggested, and firing Babcock in March, like I also suggested) but you can’t change the past.
Now is the time.
And the thing is, the Leafs have cap space and assets to move.
So far they’ve made up for the fact that they traded two first rounders by drafting Robertson in the second round and acquiring three extra draft picks for the upcoming draft (they have 10 instead of seven).
They’ve built their team so far without having to trade any of their top three prospects. That gives them ammunition.
A healthy Leafs lineup is playing Mikheyev and Kapanen on the third line, with Engvall, Moore, Spezza and more on the fourth line. This means that they can probably afford to move a winger.
Their number 6 defenseman makes $4.5 million.
So if they want to, the Toronto Maple Leafs could essentially add any player they want to. Kapanen and Ceci combine to make almost $8 million, which is enough to get an elite player.
If you built a package around Kapanen/Johnsson, Robertson/Liljegren, and some picks, you could probably get almost anyone available.
To recap: the Leafs have the cap space, the assets and the need to add. Factor in that this is easily the best chance they’ll ever have (which doesn’t mean they won’t have other good chances) and one thing becomes crystal clear:
It’s time for the Toronto Maple Leafs to go All-In and trade for another elite player to add to their roster.