4 Targets for the Toronto Maple Leafs on Trade Deadline Day

The Toronto Maple Leafs currently sit out of the playoff picture one again, and are in their worst public image since the Babcock-era came to a grueling end in November.

For a little more context, as I currently write this, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a record of 25-17-7 (good), and head into their bye-week having lost four of their last five games (bad).

The most recent loss came in the form of a deplorable effort against the Chicago Blackhawks that saw Freddy surrender three goals on the first six shots against.

This game against the Hawks was something that was neither unexpected or unfamiliar to us in Leafs Nation, complete and utter disappointment that saw the Leafs greatest weaknesses completely exposed, like seniors at a public pool levels of revealing.

Much like those dreaded images at public pools, you knew it was coming yet you hoped, prayed, begged for it to be different, “Just one time!!” But no, it was already far too late, you were already excited to go to the pool, enough to go and see, and to your dismay, you were disappointed again!

Despite the teams’ lack of success in recent games, the front office has (almost always) had my trust to actually do something and improve the team.

So, on the following slides, I have compiled a list of four players who I think would greatly improve the Leafs roster and provide some much needed energy.

Jonas Brodin

First up is Minnesota Wild defenseman Jonas Brodin. A 26 year-old LHD hailing from Karlstad, Sweden, Brodin brings a lot to desirable traits in his eighth NHL season.

Though 49 games with Minnesota this season, Brodin has 19 assists and 20 points (0.41 P/GP, on pace for career high 33 points), and has some favourable advanced statistics as well.(All stats naturalstattrick.com).

Despite starting the majority (56.1 %) of his shifts in the defensive-zone, Brodin averages a 47.1 CF% (which is understandable given his role and the team he is on, albeit still not ideal) and maintains a slightly inflated 103.4 PDO rating (career average is 100.8, which is actually quite good.) all while playing an average of 21:19 of TOI per game.

Although I do believe that Brodin would be a solid addition to the Leafs, we must be careful in terms of what we give up, as Brodin is on pace to have just the second healthy season of his career, while scoring at a career rate, with mediocre baseline analytics and an inflated PDO.

That being said, despite all of these risks, he is a much more dependable option on the backend than Cody Ceci or Martin Marincin (who are, to their credit, depth defenders forced into big minutes due to injuries).

Currently, the Wild sit last in the central division, but still have a respectable 22-21-6 record. That being said, they are greatly exceeding expectations, as many projected them to be significantly below .500 and be aggressive sellers. So far, the Wild have made no moves but probably should be making some major deals in the next coming weeks, one of which will hopefully be Brodin to the leafs.

In terms of an actual trade, I would expect the asking price to be rather high, considering the inflated stats and the fact that Brodin’s contract (six years, $4.16M AAV) extends through next season. That being said, the Leafs have assets, and probably should be looking to use some.

Off the top of my head, a rough proposal that seems fair for both sides is:

To Minnesota:

• RD Cody Ceci (26 y/o, 7P-49GP, 1YL@$4.5M-UFA)
• F Jeremy Bracco (22 y/o, 32P-40GP AHL, 1YL@$842K-RFA)
• G Zachary Bouthillier (20 y/o, 0.898 SV%-33GP QMJHL, Unsigned)
• 2021 2nd round selection*

*Can become a 2020 2nd round selection if the Toronto Maple Leafs enter the 2020 draft lottery (receive pick back from CAR)

To Toronto:

• LD Jonas Brodin (26 y/o, 20P-49GP, 2YL @ $4.16M)
• 2021 4th round pick*

*Can become a 2021 3rd round pick if Jeremy Bracco plays more than nine games for the Wild in the 2020-21 NHL season.

***Full Disclaimer: This is just my opinion on what a fair trade looks like. feel free to  call me crazy OR add your own down in the comments :)*** 

(Leafs save $333K -> $7.931M in space)

In this potential deal, the Toronto Maple Leafs give up a depth defenseman in Cody Ceci, a legitimate forward prospect in Jeremy Bracco, a wildcard goalie prospect in Zachary Bouthillier.

Ceci, a player surrounded by a lot of stigma in Leafs Nation, is actually a decent NHL player in a depth role, but simply takes up too much of the Leafs’ cap to be a worthwhile investment for Toronto.

In Minnesota however, Ceci could blossom (he’s 26 so it’s really a coin flip at this point) into a useful full-time NHL player, as he would be going to a team with significantly less media and organizational pressure.

As for Bracco, this deal would be finding the best case scenario for all parties involved. The Wild would be receiving a legitimate NHL talent who will likely take a roster spot come training camp, Bracco gets out of Toronto (per his request, via Elliotte Friedman), and the Toronto Maple Leafs allow for a player to continue their career without tension in the organization.

Bracco is purely an offensive threat in my opinion, a power play specialist who can carry a unit. Bracco possesses very advanced playmaking tendencies that really make him a standout producer at the AHL level.

In terms of Bouthillier, there isn’t too much to say here that I have’t said before.
Bouthillier is currently having the best season of his QMJHL career (0.898 SV%), which is admittedly poor, but at 6’2″ he has an NHL-comparable frame and that’s about it. It’s magic beans at this point, but it’d be foolish to say that he has no upside or value.

Vatanen and Coleman

Our second and third targets both come from the New Jersey Devils. Quite possibly the biggest disappointment of the 2019-20 season, the Devils loaded up with big ticket moves and sneaky good late-round draft choices that made them look like the Metropolitan division’s next big threat.

Unfortunately, that was all smoke in mirrors, and the offensively minded Devils struggled hard under the mediocre defensively-minded John Hynes, and have been even more mediocre under interim coach Alain Nasreddine.

Centre Blake Coleman has emerged as the Devils’ biggest trade chip since the Coyotes won the Taylor Hall Sweepstakes in December. The Texas native is a fiesty two-way forward who is great at hitting the back of the net. Coleman’s 19 goals (27 points) in 48 games played puts him on pace to beat his career high totals (33G>22, 46P>36) from last season.

Coleman looks a little rough in terms of base-line analytics (47.7 CF%, 98.9 PDO), but are forgivable given his deployment (57.5% of zone starts are in the D-zone). The 28 year-old is quite good in the rougher aspects of the game, with an incredible 1:1.8 Give-away to Take-away ratio (career) and 145 hits (this season).

Before we get to Vatanen, we must address Coleman’s value. According to Nick Villano of Pucks and Pitchforks, Coleman has superstar value, and is roughly worth a first round pick and a prospect.

I personally don’t think that it’s worth it for the Leafs to give up that much for a player who is ultimately nothing more than a bottom six player for a season and a half. Plus, Coleman is good, but not that good, and should be attainable for less.

Now onto Vatanen. The 28 year-old defender has had an up-and-down career up until this point, but has remained a solid offensive player the entire time.

Through 44 games this season, the Finnish defender has five goals and 22 points (career-high 41 point pace).

In terms of analytics, Vatanen is fairly mediocre, averaging a 49.1 CF% and a 96.0 PDO, but is starting roughly 50.7% of his shifts in the defensive zone, which is not ideal considering his skill set (He averaged his best production, 0.45 P/GP, through his first four NHL seasons, in which he started an average of 54% of his shifts in the O-zone).

Vatanen, in my opinion, would thrive under Sheldon Keefe, who’s offensively focused systems would lend well to Vatanen’s puck-moving strengths.

In my personal opinion, here’s how a trade would look.

To New Jersey:

• LW Andreas Johnsson (25 y/o, 16P-34GP NHL, 4YL@$3.4M)
• D Mac Hollowell (21 y/o, 13P-19GP ECHL, 3YL@$799K)
• C Riley Stotts (20 y/o, 44P-43GP WHL, Unsigned)
• F Alex Kerfoot (25 y/o, 19P-44GP NHL, 4YL@$3.5M)
• 2022 1st Round Pick*

*Conditional on the Toronto Maple Leafs making the second round of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs

To Toronto

• C Blake Coleman (28 y/o, 27P-48GP NHL, 2YL@$1.8M)
• D Sami Vatanen (28 y/o, 22P-44GP NHL, 1YL@$4.875M)

In this deal, the Devils receive two legitimate middle-six NHL forwards in Andreas Johnsson and Alex Kerfoot, both of whom are on team-friendly contracts, and can produce at a 40-45 point level.

The Devils also receive a solid offensive defender in Mac Hollowell, who has struggled to find consistent playing time on one of the AHL’s deepest teams, and would definitely improve the depth in the Devils’ organization.

In my opinion, Hollowell has NHL potential, but is still a few years away, but having Hollowell and Riley Walsh entering the NHL at the same time would be a scary time for the rest of the league.

New Jersey would also acquire a real good prospect centre in Riley Stotts, who is above a point-a-game in the WHL this season. A third round pick of the Leafs in 2018, Stotts is a capable producer, but struggles with consistency and definitely has some growing to do. Much like Hollowell, Stotts has NHL upside, but will take time to develop into an NHL player.