4 Targets for the Toronto Maple Leafs on Trade Deadline Day
Vatanen and Coleman
Our second and third targets both come from the New Jersey Devils. Quite possibly the biggest disappointment of the 2019-20 season, the Devils loaded up with big ticket moves and sneaky good late-round draft choices that made them look like the Metropolitan division’s next big threat.
Unfortunately, that was all smoke in mirrors, and the offensively minded Devils struggled hard under the mediocre defensively-minded John Hynes, and have been even more mediocre under interim coach Alain Nasreddine.
Centre Blake Coleman has emerged as the Devils’ biggest trade chip since the Coyotes won the Taylor Hall Sweepstakes in December. The Texas native is a fiesty two-way forward who is great at hitting the back of the net. Coleman’s 19 goals (27 points) in 48 games played puts him on pace to beat his career high totals (33G>22, 46P>36) from last season.
Coleman looks a little rough in terms of base-line analytics (47.7 CF%, 98.9 PDO), but are forgivable given his deployment (57.5% of zone starts are in the D-zone). The 28 year-old is quite good in the rougher aspects of the game, with an incredible 1:1.8 Give-away to Take-away ratio (career) and 145 hits (this season).
Before we get to Vatanen, we must address Coleman’s value. According to Nick Villano of Pucks and Pitchforks, Coleman has superstar value, and is roughly worth a first round pick and a prospect.
I personally don’t think that it’s worth it for the Leafs to give up that much for a player who is ultimately nothing more than a bottom six player for a season and a half. Plus, Coleman is good, but not that good, and should be attainable for less.
Now onto Vatanen. The 28 year-old defender has had an up-and-down career up until this point, but has remained a solid offensive player the entire time.
Through 44 games this season, the Finnish defender has five goals and 22 points (career-high 41 point pace).
In terms of analytics, Vatanen is fairly mediocre, averaging a 49.1 CF% and a 96.0 PDO, but is starting roughly 50.7% of his shifts in the defensive zone, which is not ideal considering his skill set (He averaged his best production, 0.45 P/GP, through his first four NHL seasons, in which he started an average of 54% of his shifts in the O-zone).
Vatanen, in my opinion, would thrive under Sheldon Keefe, who’s offensively focused systems would lend well to Vatanen’s puck-moving strengths.
In my personal opinion, here’s how a trade would look.
To New Jersey:
- LW Andreas Johnsson (25 y/o, 16P-34GP NHL, 4YL@$3.4M)
- D Mac Hollowell (21 y/o, 13P-19GP ECHL, 3YL@$799K)
- C Riley Stotts (20 y/o, 44P-43GP WHL, Unsigned)
- F Alex Kerfoot (25 y/o, 19P-44GP NHL, 4YL@$3.5M)
- 2022 1st Round Pick*
*Conditional on the Toronto Maple Leafs making the second round of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs
To Toronto
- C Blake Coleman (28 y/o, 27P-48GP NHL, 2YL@$1.8M)
- D Sami Vatanen (28 y/o, 22P-44GP NHL, 1YL@$4.875M)
In this deal, the Devils receive two legitimate middle-six NHL forwards in Andreas Johnsson and Alex Kerfoot, both of whom are on team-friendly contracts, and can produce at a 40-45 point level.
The Devils also receive a solid offensive defender in Mac Hollowell, who has struggled to find consistent playing time on one of the AHL’s deepest teams, and would definitely improve the depth in the Devils’ organization.
In my opinion, Hollowell has NHL potential, but is still a few years away, but having Hollowell and Riley Walsh entering the NHL at the same time would be a scary time for the rest of the league.
New Jersey would also acquire a real good prospect centre in Riley Stotts, who is above a point-a-game in the WHL this season. A third round pick of the Leafs in 2018, Stotts is a capable producer, but struggles with consistency and definitely has some growing to do. Much like Hollowell, Stotts has NHL upside, but will take time to develop into an NHL player.