Toronto Maple Leafs Do Not Need to Trade for a Defenseman

The Toronto Maple Leafs do not need to upgrade their blue line.

The Toronto Maple Leafs blue line needs to get healthy (Morgan Rielly and Jake Muzzin are currently injured) but other than that, they’re fine.

They don’t need to add Josh Manson, Brendon Dillon, Jeff Petry or Ryan Ellis (although all of those players are good, and I’d be happy if they did.)

They certainly don’t need observably bad players like Travis Hamonic or Ron Hainsey.

They don’t need anyone, because their much beleaguered group of defensemen is actually way above average.

Here’s why:

Toronto Maple Leafs Defense Is a Team Strength

Rielly and Barrie

The Leafs best defenseman is Morgan Rielly.  Coming off a year in which he was robbed of at least a Norris Trophy nomination, Rielly has played through injuries, but has done excellently.

He was never going to repeat the 20 goals from last year, and if you factor in half a year stapled (for reasons never explained and, frankly, beyond belief) to Cody Ceci his slight regression is easily explained.

He is still on pace for over 50 points and has a positive expected goal percentage. With Ceci he was worth 48% of the expected goals (bad) and with Barrie he is 54% (extremely good). (All stats 5v5 and from naturalstattrick.com).

Speaking of Barrie, despite some really undeserved criticism he’s been a great player for the Leafs.  Despite his struggles under Babcock, he’s rebounded to be on pace for 45 points and has a fantastic 54% possession rating.

The revelation though, is how great Barrie and Rielly have been together.

As a duo, they’ve gotten an amazing 59% of the goals scored while they were on the ice. That’s great, but what is more encouraging is the previously mentioned 54% expected goals percentage when they are paired together.

Keefe is great at using them in the right situations, and with a good shut-down pairing operating behind them, this is a pairing the Leafs don’t want to mess with.

Muzzin and Holl

As expected (because he’s one of the best play driving defensemen of all time) Jake Muzzin leads the Toronto Maple Leafs defensive regulars with a 54% possession rating.

Additionally, the team has been awful since he was injured.

Muzzin and Justin Holl have teamed up to become the shut-down force Mike Babcock spent four years searching for.  Had he given a chance to Holl, he might still have his job.

When combined (and facing some of the toughest competition possible) Muzzin and Holl are a 55% Corsi-for and a 54% expected goals.

Again, that is fantastic.

As you can clearly see by this absolute statistical proof, the Toronto Maple Leafs top four defensemen are very good and are in no need of an upgrade.

It might not be a name-brand top four, and Muzzin is routinely one of the most underrated players in the NHL, and I realize that a Barrie-Rielly pairing is antithetical to what most people have been taught about hockey, but there is no denying this is a good group.

Rest of the Crew

Playing Cody Ceci on the top pairing remains the single most unexplainable decision I’ve ever seen a coach make.  It wasn’t fair to a player trying to reestablish his career, and it wasn’t in anyway successful.

BUT

Cody Ceci is a VERY good (though expensive) #6 defenseman. He is also the Leafs best penalty killer.

Paired with Travis Dermott, the Leafs are getting 57% expected-goals from their bottom pairing.

If the Leafs get healthy and want to clear cap space, I suppose Cody Ceci could be moved, as he is the easiest player on the roster to replace, and it appears that either Rasmus Sandin or Timothy Liljegren could perform well with Dermott in sheltered NHL minutes.

Summary

The Toronto Maple Leafs have two solid, statistically excellent, top pairings.  Whatever people want to say, the facts do not lie: Tyson Barrie, Morgan Rielly and Jake Muzzin are all legitamate top-pairing NHL defenseman.

Most teams do not have three of those.

Justin Holl is, statistically, an above average #4.   Both pairings have been great.

The bottom pairing has been getting 57% expected goals, and you’re never going to do better with your fifth and sixth defensemen.

No other team has two NHL ready, eventual top-four defenseman ready to step into their lineup.

So the Leafs are good, and they are deep.   This is probably surprising to people, but it is factual.

So will they make a trade?  Maybe, but they don’t need to.  If they can somehow add a top pairing defenseman that would move Holl to the third pairing with Dermott, I suppose that makes sense.

But most of the options people list – Dillon, Deleo, Brodie, Hamonic, etc – do not constitute an upgrade in anything except name-brand recognition.

People always say “they need a defensive defenseman” but that is such an outdated term, and these people should realize that the Leafs have moved beyond such distinctions.

People always say the Leafs need to be tougher, but there is no indication that their management team thinks so.

If the Leafs can use Ceci’s money to upgrade their team in a different way, perhaps they can do it.  But as is, this is one of the most effective blue-lines in the NHL and the team should be confident heading to the playoffs with their current (when healthy) group.