The Toronto Maple Leafs Need to Stay Clear of Trading With Nashville

The Toronto Maple Leafs should be looking to improve their defense. When they make a deal, it shouldn’t be with the Nashville Predators.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have one of the best rosters they’ve had in many years. Their group is incredibly talented with a potent offense. Defensively, they can use some help. With the trade deadline still over a month away, the Leafs should look to bolster their blueline. As they look for trading partners to do this, one they shouldn’t get sucked into dealing with is the Nashville Predators.

With the Predators having a disappointing season, their team seems ripe for the picking.While we’re confident that Kyle Dubas won’t be making any hasty decisions, we will explain why he should stay clear of Nashville’s defenders.

General manager of the Predators, David Poile, recently told a local radio station that his team is “open for business.” In that same interview he mentioned that he was not expecting to make a coaching change, but on Monday, things changed. Head coach Peter Laviolette and assistant Kevin McCarthy were both dismissed.

These events are a call to the other GMs leaguewide to let them know that Poile is serious about making changes and they should be in touch. Of course, Dubas should touch base with all his colleagues around the league to see what’s available and to keep a handle on the market at all times. Unfortunately, the Predators don’t have the right personnel for the Leafs.

Roman Josi

The player that Toronto may have been most interested in acquiring is now in his ninth year in Music City, USA, Roman Josi. He will be turning 30 in June and still has a lot of quality hockey left to play. The 6’1” Dman from Bern Switzerland was drafted by the Predators in the second round (38th overall) of the 2008 NHL Entry Draft. His debut for the Preds was in 2011-12. By age 23, the 2013-14 season, he had the game figured out. Josi demonstrated that he can play well on both ends of the ice.

That was the same year that Nashville inked Josi, their current captain, to a seven-year contract worth $28 million. That deal expires at the end of this season, but in order to make sure that Josi spends his entire career in Nashville, he was extended to a monster deal. He signed for eight more years with the team for a total of $72.472 million.

That’s a yearly cap hit of $9.059 million. This alone makes Josi untouchable. While his numbers remain well above average, the Toronto Maple Leafs cannot take on a salary that would eat over 11 percent of the current cap.

Thanks to what Auston Matthews ($11.634 million), John Tavares ($11 million), Mitch Marner ($10.893 million), and William Nylander ($6,962,366) earn, the four of their salaries combined already account for $40,489,366, which is 49.69% of the $81.5 million team cap.

Adding in Frederik Andersen’s and Morgan Rielly’s combined $10 million bumps that up to accounting for nearly 63%. That is why Dubas has to be very strategic about the salaries that he takes on. (via CapFriendly.com)

Ryan Ellis

The Toronto Maple Leafs may be interested in Ryan Ellis, others at ediorinleaf.com believe they should. Unfortunately, he was injured at the 2020 Winter Classic when he took an elbow to the head from Corey Perry. When questioned about Ellis’s timeline for return, Laviolette, couldn’t provide one, but did explain that “he got banged up pretty good.” The team does hope he will be returning to action soon.

Ellis also recently signed a big contract in Nashville. He’s currently on the first of his eight-year $50 million deal. Most GMs would choose not to move a player who has just committed long term to the organization. It sets a bad precedent and destroys trust with free agents who then choose to join different teams where they can trust they won’t immediately be traded.

With that in mind, Poile would certainly entertain offers. To pry Ellis and his $6.25 million AAV away from the Predators, the Toronto Maple Leafs would have to give up someone or a package that is undeniably great. This suggests that Dubas could overpay.

Having Ellis on the ice for Toronto would be great, but if it means giving up a pair of high-end prospects and a quality player off the current roster, it’s not worth pulling the trigger on the deal.

The Rest of Nashville’s Defensemen

Yannick Webber becomes a free agent at the end of the season. He would be a player that could be easily moved. Webber just isn’t the sort of defender that the Leafs would want. His even-strength Corsi percentage was 48.8 percent, which is -2.9 percent relative to his team. That’s not good though it’s common with the Predators. Nearly all their defensemen have ugly advanced stats.

Jarred Tinordi is averaging 11:35 minutes per game and his Corsi percentage relative to his team is -4.6. Mattias Ekholm’s is -5.4. Apart from Josi and Ellis, the only other players who are positive relative to their team are the bottom pairing, Matt Irwin (0.6) and Alexandre Carrier (0.2).

Considering that the Leafs would have to give up assets to acquire any of these players, it doesn’t make sense at this time to go in that direction. Neither Irwin or Carrier would be a significant upgrade for the Leafs.

The Predators do have some interesting prospects in their farm system. However, Toronto is in “win now” mode.

The Toronto Marlies are loaded with talent including Timothy Liljegren and a just-miss 2020 WJC MVP, Rasmus Sandin. It’s impractical for the Leafs to look to another organization’s minor leaguers unless they get involved in a larger deal for an established NHL player.

If it is a defenseman that the Toronto Maple Leafs covet ahead of the trade deadline then their best move is to invest their time and resources exploring other team’s rosters.

We will watch intently to see what the Leafs decide to do about their blueline in the weeks to come.