Despite Recent Losses, Toronto Maple Leafs Remain Cup Contender

The Toronto Maple Leafs loss to the New York Islanders on Wednesday night was understandably upsetting.

The New York Islanders are a team that the Toronto Maple Leafs should beat ten out of ten times, and the Leafs failed to get it done.

It’s frustrating, but if we keep our cool and try to remember that it’s a long season, there is a lot to be positive about.

It’s not as bad as it seems.

Toronto Maple Leafs Positives

I think the Leafs need a coach who will play a style of play that is creative, aggressive and about offense.  That said, I really don’t think there’s too much to be angry about.

In the last two games, the Toronto Maple Leafs have allowed six goals on just 40 shots (5v5) (All stats naturalstattrick.com).

That is just an 85% save percentage, which is about 5% lower than the worst team in the NHL will ever get over a whole year.

They scored eight goals in those two games.

Against the Blackhawks, they put almost 60 shots on net.

Against the Islanders, the Leafs had 62% of the shot-attempts, and 55% of the scoring chances.  You’re usually going to win both of those games.

Had the Leafs not gotten unusually bad goaltending of their own, and faced unusually good goaltending, they almost certainly win both of their last two games.

The Leafs deserved to win both games (and sure, there are things to correct, and legitimate reasons to be frustrated, but they did deserve to win both games) and if they had, they’d be on an eight game point streak right now.

The Leafs schedule has been brutal, and they’ve played over half their games without either Tavares, Marner or Andersen.

Additionally, while they are the third best Corsi team in the NHL, they’re getting the 8th worst goaltending in the NHL at 5v5.

The probability is that a team is a lot closer to it’s Corsi (3rd) than it’s save percentage (23rd).

I could name ten things I don’t like about Babcock, but a coach isn’t going to make a huge difference one way or the other (the best coach in the NHL might be worth 2 wins vs the worst coach).

The fact is: the Leafs could easily be sitting here with an eight game point streak.  They aren’t, but losing the last two games was pretty flukey.

You might find it interesting to find out that the Islanders are the 30th best Corsi team, and are first in the NHL with a  94% save percentage.

Probability wise it is almost approaching the guarantee territory that the Leafs will finish with the better record. The Islanders are 2nd in the NHL in PDO (i.e they are the second luckiest team after Colorado) while the Toronto Maple Leafs are 19th (unlucky).

So yes, as we disect every little thing in real time, and as we get way to maudlin over each loss, and as the team sits outside a playoff spot a quarter of the way into the season, all is not lost.

The team is due to get healthy sooner or later. The save percentage is guaranteed to climb, while the longer the schedule goes on, the more luck will balance out.

The Toronto Maple Leafs remain one of the NHL’s best teams and, along with Tampa, and Boston remain one of the top three Cup Favorites and best teams in the league.