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Toronto Maple Leafs Off to a Much Better Start Than People Are Saying

By James Tanner |
TORONTO, ON - APRIL 08: Toronto Maple Leafs Goalie Frederik Andersen (31) reacts after an injury during the second period of the NHL regular season game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Pittsburgh Penguins on April 8, 2017, at Air Canada Centre in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photograph by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - APRIL 08: Toronto Maple Leafs Goalie Frederik Andersen (31) reacts after an injury during the second period of the NHL regular season game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Pittsburgh Penguins on April 8, 2017, at Air Canada Centre in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photograph by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning Thursday night.

It was a game that really showed off the  Toronto Maple Leafs poor defensive game.

It sure wasn’t the best game, but at the same time, it wasn’t as bad as people are saying.

The Leafs controlled play for the most part – especially in the second period before the game was out of hand – and they lost mostly because of bad goaltending.

Which is the third straight game that’s been the case.

The Leafs are off to a much better start than people are saying.

Toronto Maple Leafs Start to the Season

The  Leafs took five out of a possible six points to start the season.

Then they lost to two of the best teams in the NHL – one of which they deserved to win.

Since that is inarguabley the case, I find all the sky-is-falling stuff to be total nonsense.

I do want the Leafs to get a new coach, but that has more to do with last season’s failures and four years of watching Babcock than it does with the team’s current record.

The Leafs have a 54% possession rating.

They have gotten 51% of the shots, and over 50% of the expected goals.

They are getting 53% of the scoring chances.

And 53% of the high-danger chances.

Those are the numbers of a team that will destroy the opposition on most nights.

And again, if not for a fluky three goal comeback by the Habs, and a lucky win by the Blues, the Leafs would have started the season 4-0. Nothing you can do about last night night against  the Lightning, but their record should currently be 4-1 having taken eight of their first ten points.

I realize that isn’t the case, but results over a six game sample will always be wildly unpredictable.  Still, at this point, the peripheral numbers are about a million times more predictive than their record.

So optimism is called for.

Furthermore, the Toronto Maple Leafs are only shooting 10%, which is probably low given the talent on their team.

There is only one reason the Leafs haven’t done as well as they should have: they have the third worst save percentage in the NHL.

No need to be concerned about Andersen, he does this every year.  The dude just doesn’t care about October games! (all stats 5v5 and from naturalstattrick.com)

The Leafs have the seventh lowest PDO in the NHL.   That measures luck, and they’ve been unlucky.  No need to panic.

That said, I’d still be looking for a new partner for Morgan Rielly, and definitely a new coach, but those were things I though six games ago too.

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