The Toronto Maple Leafs will be kicking off the NHL season tonight against the Ottawa Senators.
For the Toronto Maple Leafs, the upcoming season represents a chance to win the Stanley Cup for the first time in over 50 years, and they’ve got the roster to do it.
For me, it’s a chance to give y’all some more guarantees about the future. As has been well documented, the EIL Summer Guarantees came true with only two exceptions. (one of which might still happen).
While most people are picking the Tampa Bay Lightning to win the Atlantic Division, those people are vastly overrating the ability for the Lightning to repeat their magic.
The fact is, the Lightning were 11-3 in one-goal games, they once went on a 16 game point streak, shot almost 22% on the power-play, while their back-up goalie had a record of 21-5. (stats from naturalstattrick.com).
For any of those things to happen is about as rare as seeing a leprechaun. For all four of them to happen in the same season is a preposterous amount of luck, and expecting them to repeat is like asking someone who won the lottery to win it again.
In reality, there was little difference between the Leafs and Tampa last year, (and the advanced stats bear this out) but the above four ridiculous occurrences explain the 20 point difference in the standings.
This year, the Leafs are a year closer to the best years of their best players, while Tampa is a year farther away. The rosters are comparable, but the Toronto Maple Leafs will prove to be the superior team.
That’s guarantee #1.
Toronto Maple Leafs Guarantees Two Through Seven
2. The Toronto Maple Leafs win a playoff round.
This is a no brainer. They already should have and were just unlucky. They could get unlucky again, but this year they’ll have a much nicer matchup (because they’ll win the Atlantic).
3. Cody Ceci Will be Traded or Demoted
The Leafs will inexplicably start the season with Cody Ceci in the top four, and considering that he is the sixth best defensemen the team, that is not going to last.
“He’s better than Marincin,” I can hear you say, but you are wrong. There’s hardly any difference between what those two will bring to the lineup, but Marincin provides above average penalty killing ability.
Being the one bad contract on the team will limit Ceci’s time in T.O
4. William Nylander Leads the Team in Scoring
Nylander is one of the best players in the NHL at creating scoring chances and controlled zone entires. He will be paired with the NHL’s best goal scorer.
This will lead to Nylander leading the Leafs, and the NHL, in scoring.
5. The Current Power-Play doesn’t last
The Leafs have again stacked up one power play unit, but unless they are going to use it for two straight minutes, it’s a waste of time to do so.
Additionally, players like Nylander and Barrie are going to be better while fresh than their tired first-unit peers, so even if they did use one stacked unit for two full minutes, it’s probably a bad idea.
Once the Toronto Maple Leafs realize stacking is detrimental on the power-play, they’ll have Nylander with Matthews and Barrie and split the PP time evenly.
6. Rasmus Sandin players 82 games if he’s healthy.
He has already played his last AHL game.
7. Morgan Rielly Ends up Paired with Rasmus Sandin
While Rielly is the Leafs best defenseman, I expect that the toughest assignments will go to the Muzzin line whenever possible. This means that Sandin won’t really be playing top pairing as a rookie on the Stanley Cup Favorites when this inevitably happens.
Ceci will prove so terrible that Babcock will have no choice but to try Sandin with Rielly before Dermott gets back. Sandin will mesh so well with Rielly that everyone forgets that he’s a rookie by November.