Editor In Leaf
Fansided

Is the Marner Contract Good or Bad for the Toronto Maple Leafs?

By Wilbert Timmermans

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 17: Mitchell Marner #16 of the Toronto Maple Leafs during opening ceremonies before a game against the Boston Bruins during the first period during Game Four of the Eastern Conference First Round during the 2019 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Scotiabank Arena on April 17, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - APRIL 17: Mitchell Marner #16 of the Toronto Maple Leafs during opening ceremonies before a game against the Boston Bruins during the first period during Game Four of the Eastern Conference First Round during the 2019 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Scotiabank Arena on April 17, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
4 of 6
Next
TORONTO, ON - APRIL 04: Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitchell Marner (16) adjusts his helmet during the third period in a game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs on April 04, 2019, at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario Canada. The Tampa Bay Lightning won 3-1. (Photo by Nick Turchiaro/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - APRIL 04: Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitchell Marner (16) adjusts his helmet during the third period in a game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs on April 04, 2019, at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario Canada. The Tampa Bay Lightning won 3-1. (Photo by Nick Turchiaro/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Philip Van Riesen

As a saw the flow of tweets pop up on my phone about Mitch Marner’s signing a six-year contract I was astonished that the negations finally came to an end, it felt like these negations would never end.

Shortly after, the number 10.893 million was made public, seeing such a large number is something I was not pleased to see. The reason for this is when examining through the many factors that should have an influence on what Marner should receive, every metric would render that Marner is was overpaid.

Some notable factors that demonstrate Marner’s contract is an overpay include, close comparables, statistical models that predict contracts, shooting percentage regression and the problem of using points to evaluate players in the NHL, essentially, any way you look at the contract it is unwarranted that the Leafs paid Marner this much money.

But to avoid the fact that Marner could have got paid less relative to several factors, we can just ask the question, “is Marner’s on-ice value worth this amount of money throughout the length of the contract that runs through Marner’s prime years?” My answer would be, yes.

To put this into better perspective, during the Nonis era, the Leafs were paying Dave Bolland and David Clarkson the combined value of Marner’s contract, and I don’t think a soul on earth would rather pay for two aging middle-tier players over a 22-year-old Marner.

Something to remember is the Toronto Maple Leafs have locked up a phenomenal player for the next six seasons that includes the entirety of his prime.

Marner’s on-ice value should bring value relative to the contract, the disappointment is, had the Leafs paid him what his market value would be, there would be even more value. But in the end, Marner is still a Leaf and it is better to overpay core players rather than secondary players.

Home/Editorials