Toronto Maple Leafs: Questioning the Focus of Load Management

Load Management, the new favorite word for Toronto Maple Leafs fans. Is it really all it’s cracked up to be or just another excuse for a problem we can’t currently quantify?

When assessing the focus of the upcoming season for the Toronto Maple Leafs there is one point that seems to be resounding among most fans, Freddy must play less.

This load management focus on Goaltenders has become a growing buzzword in the hockey community and a word synonymous with the Leafs management of Freddy Anderson.

Over the past few months I have read countless articles indicating how the Toronto Maple Leafs should manage Freddy’s ice time. These views and opinions are heavily based on anecdotal evidence in relation to successful teams in the past having goaltender tandems or backups that carry a heavier workload.

Naturally the rebuttal to this viewpoint is to point to a goaltender like Brodeur. The fact is, both the argument for and the argument against load management is predominantly based on opinion and anecdotal evidence. The evidence seems to be as blurry as the argument when it comes to load management.

Please understand, I work in health sciences, so I absolutely recognize the importance of load management in relation to injury prevention. The focus of load management research in goaltending, however, seems to be more about goaltender performance than injury reduction.

Yet, this 2015 article shows that this hypothesis which has become heavily backed on mainstream media is somewhat flawed. As the below graph shows, the effect of low goaltender workload on save percentage is indistinguishable, which is contrary to the popular belief that workload strongly affects performance.

Whilst this graph is specific to shots-faced workload and not games played, it disputes the argument that in-game workload has a large affect on performance.

Image Courtesy of InGoalMagazine.com

Here’s my look into the focus of load management and why exactly the current prevailing belief is somewhat unsubstantiated.

Load Management in Injuries

There is absolutely an argument to be made when it comes to injury prevention and recovery surrounding load management. This is evident in all sports and has been proven time and time again.

However, the exact purpose of load management in return from injury or injury prevention is to reduce the likelihood of an exacerbation of an injury or further injury. The second part of this is to increase workload and in turn increase the amount of load the body can take without “breaking.”

The fundamental physiological function of loading the body is adaptation. Therefore, goaltenders, and any sports person in general, don’t have a pre-existing “sweet spot” when it comes to load. Arguing absolute game limits would be discrediting with the value of sports science through load management which is a sports science based principle.

The idea is always to increase load, adapt, then there is a new baseline which an athlete can produce at. The point is, load management is something that is extremely important with injury management.

Frederik Andersen doesn’t have a history of consistently reoccurring non-contact injuries, therefore the argument for load management with him from an injury prevention perspective is flawed.

Load Management for Performance

The second focus of load management is on Frederik Andersen’s performance. There seems to be a belief that if Freddy was to play fewer games he would be better come playoffs.

Once again, this is purely based on assumptions that Freddy doesn’t perform as well as other goaltenders in playoffs due to him playing more games in the regular season.

Once again this is basing a theory on an assumption and ignoring every other variable associated with his performance. Freddy has faced the Boston Bruins the past two seasons and the President’s Trophy winning Washington Capitals the year before that. The losses are somehow still attributed to his regular season usage.

I also went and calculated Freddy’s regular season numbers when facing the team he eventually lost to in the playoffs and compared them. Across all three seasons Freddy faced his eventual opponent at least two times and facing Boston three times in 2017-18.

In his first year against Washington, Freddy put up .943% and .793% in his two games for a combined .875%, worse than his .915% in against the Caps in the playoffs.

In 2017-18 Freddy put up .943%, .897% and .870%, for a combined .908% which was slightly better than his .896% in the playoffs.

This past year Freddy put up .943% and .793% for a combined .875% against the Bruins, worse again than his .922% in the playoffs.

When putting all these numbers together, in regular season outings when playing the eventual first round opponent, Freddy managed a save percentage of just .890%.

That number is worse than any of his eventual statistics across any of the three playoff runs. Also worth noting, Freddy had a minimum of 2 days rest between all of these regular season games used for the above numbers. Whilst there is absolutely evidence supporting resting your goaltender in back to backs, it’s tough to deny that when your goaltender is rested there is an impact on performance.

The Decision Makers

The fact is, there are just so many variables when it comes to goaltending. Carter Hutton and other goaltenders in the past have spoken on how the ideal number of games for them is much less than Freddy’s workload.

Some goaltenders also appear to prefer a much heavier workload than Carter. The position appears to be extremely individualized, and preferences on workload change goaltender to goaltender.

There are people much smarter than me with a direct line to Frederik Andersen. His numbers year by year with the Toronto Maple Leafs have been extremely similar regardless of the number of games he plays. He also doesn’t have a long history of re-occurring non-contact injuries which heavily suggests he isn’t being overworked from a physical perspective.

The basis for the argument surrounding load management is one of either injury prevention or improved performance. Considering Andersen’s career to date, it seems he is a goaltender who moves more towards the Brodeur end of the spectrum than the tandem end.

By no means am I discrediting the importance of load management, I am merely questioning the basis on which it is employed.

Load management is something that is very useful to certain players both from the physical and mental side of the game. Andersen doesn’t appear to be one of those low workload goaltenders, so insisting a regime should be enforced on him is ridiculous.

Instead, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a staff complete with medical doctors, physical therapists, dietitians, sports scientists and a goaltending coach. It is these people with day to day interaction with Frederik Andersen who can systematically evaluate both his physical state and level of play.

As they say in science, question everything, even if it is something that is heavily supported by a ton of people you respect.