How Many Toronto Maple Leafs Defensemen Will Remain Past 2019-20?

With Morgan Rielly being the only key defender under contract past 2019-20, the Toronto Maple Leafs will soon need to determine their blueline beyond this year.

While the regular season is now on the horizon, the Toronto Maple Leafs once again will have a few key pieces that are on expiring contracts and will likely seek a big payday next summer. This time around, it is nearly the entire projected top-6 defensive core sans Morgan Rielly.

The overall collection of players aren’t as monumental as the William Nylander, Auston Matthews, and Mitch Marner sagas from the previous campaign, but it is still important nonetheless. Especially considering that it has been a long time coming since the Leafs have iced a defensive core this talented in quite some time.

There will be some easy decisions for Kyle Dubas to make in regards to who will stick around and who will look to find greener pastures on July 1st. Additionally, there will be some difficult verdicts that will need more time to map out a clearer answer. All in all, it’s a lot on Dubas’ plate that will dictate how the Leafs defence looks in 2020 and beyond.

The obvious decisions

When it comes to surefire things, none is more so than the Leafs re-upping Travis Dermott after his rookie contract expires. He may not be available to start the season due to a shoulder injury, his value and importance to the defensive unit are colossal. Fresh off a 17 point campaign in which had strong possession numbers at even strength, Dermott’s role on the team will no doubt increase in the wake of Jake Gardiner’s departure.

Another safe bet that will get a new deal is Justin Holl, even in spite of his limited usage in the previous season. Dubas is familiar with the Holl from his time spent with the Marlies and has become a late-bloomer in terms of his development. Despite only recording 1 point in 12 games, he should some flashes of promise based on the underlying metrics. Should he get a longer look with the team, he will likely continue to improve.

On the flip side, Martin Marincin‘s time with the Leafs seems to be nearing its end. Not simply because of his inability to snag a full-time role in the top-6 consistently, but more so with the number of quality prospects that inching closer to challenging for a roster spot. He does possess good size (6’5”, 213 pounds) and has proven to be a solid player, but he is a left-shot defender on a team desperate for more righties. With his role on the team unstable and the likes of Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin nearing their arrival, Marincin will likely fall out of favour and, subsequently, to be off the roster entirely by season’s end.

The question marks

For the remaining players listed here, their future in Toronto is dependent on a number of factors. These range from their projected asking price, the Leafs long-term needs, their trajectory, or the uncertainty of them fitting into the system.

The big fish in this endeavor is Tyson Barrie, who was the key acquisition in the July 1st trade that saw long-time Leaf Nazem Kadri shipped to Mile High City. Currently on a retained salary of under $3 million AAV, Barrie is reportedly seeking an $8 million annually on his next deal. If that were the case, it would cripple the Leafs already tight cap space even further, although they may be more inclined to bite the bullet. Time will tell if Barrie’s stay in Toronto will be more than a pit-stop.

Similarly, Jake Muzzin will likely seek a larger pay raise on his next deal as he enters the final year of his contract. In a sense, the Toronto Maple Leafs might also be willing to pay up the gritty two-way defender given his unique playstyle when compared to the team’s other defensive options, but he`s getting old.

He also has the benefit of being more familiar with the system as he enters his first full season in Toronto. Given that he will turn 31 by February, the Leafs could also be hesitant to commit long-term because of a potential decline in productivity. Again, we’ll have to wait and see if Muzzin will remain in the Blue and White past 2020.

Perhaps no player’s future on the Toronto Maple Leafs is up in the air more than Cody Ceci as it is unclear how he will perform in Toronto. There is a distinct possibility that Ceci could excel in his new home, solidifying the praise team management has been giving him throughout the offseason. It could also end poorly and see him either traded away midway through the season or let go in free agency. Regardless, there is a lot of pressure being placed on the man with $4.5 million price tag. How he performs this campaign will determine his future in Toronto.

Finally, all of the fringe players battling it out for roster spots have uncertain futures with the team. That means guys like Jordan Schmaltz, Ben Harpur, Teemu Kivihalme, and Kevin Gravel have a lot riding on this upcoming training camp to try and lock-down a full-time role. Alternatively, their fate might already be sealed if the Leafs view them as stop-gaps while the likes of Liljegren and Sandin gain more development.  Given that all of these aforementioned players are on cheap deals, their outcome could go either way pending on their performance this season.

Conclusion

As you can see, the Toronto Maple Leafs won’t have an easy time this coming offseason in regards to determining which of their defenseman will be sticking around past the 2019-20 campaign. With a few notable exceptions, the vast majority of these defender’s long-term stay in Toronto is far from a guarantee.

(All stats unless otherwise noted are from Hockey-Reference.com and Natural Stat Trick. All salary numbers are from Cap Friendly.)

This could indicate a few things; either the cap crunch will result in a few notable casualties or the Leafs are comfortable with letting some go to allow the young guns their NHL opportunity. It’s what the team is willing to face next summer and beyond, as Brenden Shanahan implied this past May.

Given the amount of uncertainty surrounding how steadfast the current core will stick together past this season, it will be interesting to see how all of this plays out during the season. With plenty of time to think over these critical decisions, the Toronto Maple Leafs will no doubt have a lot on their plate roughly 9 months from now.