Toronto Maple Leafs: Jake Gardiner is Coming Back

Sometimes, you just can’t quit the Toronto Maple Leafs.

That seems to be what Jake Gardiner is facing this summer.

Despite being one of the best players — not just defencemen, but best overall player — on the free-agent market with the ability to cash in like has never has before, Gardiner remains unsigned with training camps only a few weeks away.

That is notable. The talented puck-mover is clearly waiting for something to move before he does, and the Maple Leafs seem pretty likely to be it.

Obviously, there are a few hold-ups here. Gardiner would be signed already if there weren’t.

Simply put, Toronto can’t afford Gardiner. Not right now, at least. Although they haven’t used their LTIR allotment yet — something which will afford them some sweet, sweet cap space — the Maple Leafs are over the ceiling by a good $3 million at the moment with Mitch Marner‘s $10 million or so waiting to be squeezed in when the kid finally quits his tantrum and re-signs.

Even on a one-year, prove-it deal, Gardiner’s salary will, at the very least, match his $4.05 million from 2018-19. That means the Maple Leafs need to clear at least that much money from their books before they can think of bringing him back.

Funnily enough, do you know who happens to make almost exactly that amount? Cody Ceci!

Ever since Ceci was announced as the centrepiece of the Nikita Zaitsev trade, I’ve never believed that he was meant to be a prominent piece of this team. The Maple Leafs employ the biggest analytics staff in the entire NHL, and although they might know something that us plebs simply do not, it’s still hard to believe that they are in full support of a Cody Ceci comeback season.

Not to mention, I don’t believe we know the full structure of Ceci’s one-year, $4.5 million deal, either. That could lay the groundwork for some potential wheeling and dealing.

Adam Wylde threw out a little tidbit on the Steve Dangle Podcast a few months back — right after the Ceci trade, in fact — that has since stuck with me for a while: the maximum amount of salary, per year, a team can pay a player in the form of signing bonuses is $3.8 million.

What does this mean? Well, I’ll tell you.

If the Maple Leafs chose to hand Ceci the max amount of bonus money on his one-year deal, that would leave a total of only around $800,000 in actual money due to him for the rest of the season. Obviously, Ceci’s cap hit would remain at $4.5 million. That wouldn’t change. But the amount of space he would take up on an organization’s internal books after cashing that sweet bonus cheque would be almost non-existent.

That matters to teams without the Maple Leafs’ financial muscle. And while every team is above the NHL’s cap floor at the moment, there are still a whopping five with $10 million or more in space. One would think that those teams could be in the market for a 25-year-old RHD whose cap hit can help push them towards the adjusted mid-point and whose actual salary is mere chump change.

The Columbus Blue Jackets, for example, have around $15.7 million in wiggle room and just underwent a gutting roster turnover. Why not put Ceci on a pairing with Ryan Murray or, when he’s signed, Zach Werenski and see what happens?

Or, what about the Winnipeg Jets? Their second-pairing RHD at the moment is Neal Pionk after Jacob Trouba left town and the team sits with over $16 million in cap space. Yes, Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor need new deals, but Laine will almost certainly get bridged (or traded) and Connor can’t really come in at over $7 million. They have the room and the roster need.

Regardless of which team comes calling, the Maple Leafs have an avenue to bring arguably the best player left on the free-agent market home. Gardiner is waiting. It’s time for Toronto lock him in.