Toronto Maple Leafs 2019-20 Player Expectations and Forecasts
The Toronto Maple Leafs have had a busy summer.
Though the Toronto Maple Leafs have (more or less) established a core group of players, they still managed to turn over more than a third of their roster this summer.
Leaving the Leafs were Patrick Marleau, Connor Brown, Ron Hainsey, Nikita Zaitsev, Igor Ozhiganov, Nazem Kadri, Tyler Ennis, Garret Sparks and Jake Gardiner (though hopefully not).
That’s nine players.
Additionally, Zach Hyman and Travis Dermott will open the year on the injured reserve.
That means that the Leafs will have only one defenseman – Morgan Rielly (who should at the very least have been a Norris Finalist last season) – who played on opening night last season.
With Josh Leivo and Par Lindholm already gone, the Toronto Maple Leafs will have a minimum of 12 different players in their opening night lineup this season. 13 if you count the back-up goalie.
Only Matthews, Marner (we assume), Tavares, Johnsson, Kapanen, Rielly, Andersen, Matthews remain.
That’s only eight players (of course the numbers are skewed because Nylander sat out last fall, and Hyman and Dermott, as mentioned, are injured). (Stats and info from naturalstattrick.com).
Still it’s a lot of turnover. While it is a little crazy, I don’t think it’s anything to worry about since NHL games are won with first line players, and the Leafs have built arguably the best core in the league.
Additionally, the Toronto Maple Leafs now have a much deeper, much more versatile roster. (Not only is the defense more balanced from left to right without any drop-off in quality, but the addition of Alex Kerfoot gives the Leafs the kind of high-end defensive forward they’ve lacked in the last few seasons).
With so much change, it’s going to be difficult to predict who is going to play where and with who, let alone how successful everyone will be. That said, it’s not going to stop us from trying, so please enjoy our pre-pre-season rundown of the Leafs roster, and our guesses for how everything will ultimately work out.
Age: 22
Role: Undisputed best player on the roster. Auston Matthews is behind only Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid when it comes to overall ranking in the NHL.
He is the leading 5v5 goal scorer, on a per/minute basis, since he entered the NHL, and is fifth in total points. What is most impressive about that is that those years include his rookie season and two seasons in which he suffered multiple injuries and missed over a quarter of the games.
Last Season: Scored 37 goals in 68 games. Was the Leafs best player when healthy. Was saddled with Patrick Marleau as his second-most used winger last season. Marluea and Matthews were a 49% duo that allowed more goals than they scored.
Matthews with literally any other players: 56%
For three seasons worth of data, the best player – by far – to play with Matthews is William Nylander and they are expected to be reunited this season.
Not doing so would be a fireable offense for Babcock.
Expectations: The expectations for Matthews this year are to be one of the best players in the NHL, stay healthy, play more per game, and score over 50 goals and 100 points.
No one can expect a Hart Trophy, but we do expect Matthews to play like an MVP.
What He Needs to Meet Expectations: Health, increased ice time, William Nylander.
William Nylander
Age: 23
Role: First Line Right Wing.
Last Season: Nylander held out until December, and when he returned he was bounced around the lineup, playing 200 minutes with five different forwards, but no more than 270 minutes with any single player.
Despite only posting seven goals and 27 assists, Nylander was the least best possession player and play driving, posting a 56% Corsi.
Additionally when the Leafs had Nylander on the ice, they had over 50% of the shot-attempts, shots, scoring chances and goals. Essentially, they were a winning team with him on the ice.
Nylander’s most common linemate was Kadri, and while they posted a phenomenal 58% possession rating when paired, they were the Leafs two lowest ranked players on the team for both individual and on-ice shooting percentage.
Interesting Fact: In their three years in the NHL, Matthews and Nylander are each other’s most common linemate. (All stats naturalstattrick.com).
Matthews and Nylander Together: 53.07 CF%
Nylander without Matthews: 52.12 CF%
Matthews without Nylander: 49.92%
*Drops Mic*
Expectations: To play on the first line, to score over a point per game and be an NHL leader in play driving and scoring chance creation.
Nylander is so good that a scoring tile in a season where Matthews scores 65 goals is not outside the realm of possibility. You heard it here first kids.
What He Needs to Meet Expectations: He needs to play with Matthews on the power-play as well as at even-strength.
Andreas Johnson
Age: 24
Role: First Line Left Winger
Last Season: 20 goals, 23 points, one crazy hattrick.
Johnson’s 2.49 points per 60 is an elite total. If he can maintain it, then oh-my-god are the Toronto Maple Leafs a deep team. If Johnson is a legitimate 2.25+ p/60 player, then the Leafs have a line of Johnson-Matthews-Nylander that is comparable to the Bruins super-line of Pastrnak-Bergeron-Marchand.
Any talk of putting anyone other than Johnson on Matthews’ left wing is easily the craziest thing anyone has said all summer.
Expectations: If he plays all season on the top line and gets power play points, I think we should be happy with 25 goals, 50 points. That might be a lot to expect, however. It’s hard to say with Johnsson only having played 82 games and never being a top prospect. He’s already exceeded all expectations.
What He Needs to Meet Expectations: Ice Time. I think he’s the real deal.
Ilya Mikheyev
by Spencer Teixeira
Age: 24
Role: As of yet unknown. It’s hard to see him taking ice-time away from Johnson or Hyman, but if he wins a job at camp, he can play anywhere in the lineup.
Last Season: Mikheyev was a top scorer in the KHL last year, posting 23 goals and 45 points in 62 games (0.73 PTS/GP). (Via SportsForecaster).
Expectations: This November 2018 quote, from Jokke Nevalainen of Dobber Prospects, provides an excellent description of Mikheyev.
The 24 year-old winger is a dual threat because [Mikheyev] can both make plays and finish them. He has good acceleration and good top speed. His hockey sense is very good as well. He does a good job using his size to protect the puck win [battles] along the boards…Defensively, he uses his hockey smarts for good defensive reads. He’s a good back-checker, and a capable penalty killer.
This leaves a very positive impression of Mikheyev. The winger seems to possess good speed as well as offensive and defensive ability, thus perhaps making him a less expensive Connor Brown with a higher ceiling.
According to Dobber’s NHLe calculator, Mikheyev is projected to hit 43 points based on his season in the KHL last season.
Personally, I would expect roughly 10-15 goals and 25-30 points from Mikheyev.
What He Needs to Meet Expectations: He will have to win a job in camp, and then earn more ice time than an established player. Hyman’s injury gives him an opening for prime minutes if he can deliver.
For More of Spencer’s writing, check this out.
John Tavares
Age: 29 (When the season starts).
Role: Co-Top Centre playing on one of the Leafs 2 x 1st lines.
Last Season: In his debut with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Tavares met or exceeded all expectations.
He nearly scored 50 goals, and he did lead the NHL in 5v5 goals. He set career highs in all offensive categories and helped Mitch Marner score 96 points.
Short of actually winning the Stanley Cup, it’s hard to see how his debut season with the Leafs could have gone any better.
Expectations: To lead the Toronto Maple Leafs to their first Stanley Cup win in over 50 years. No big deal.
What He Needs to Meet Expectations: As long as his programming doesn’t falter, he’ll be fine. The Leafs need to stay healthy enough and get a few breaks along the way and they’ll win the Cup.
The other thing Tavares needs is Mitch Marner to sign a deal. The two combined for nearly 200 points last year and will look to improve on it this year.
Mitch Marner
Age: 22
Role: Right Wing on one of the 2 x First Lines the Leafs deploy
Last Season: 26 goals and 94 points, while being one of the NHL leaders in points/60.
Expectations: Sign a contract. Break 30 goals. Score over 100 points while being one of the most exciting players in the NHL.
What He Needs to Meet Expectations: All Mitch Marner needs to do to meet expectations is sign a contract.
If he and Tavares both stay healthy, you can expect another 100 points, and maybe even a scoring title – it’s not out of the question. Marner has taken a hit this summer in terms of public relations, but once he signs all will be forgiven.
He should have another excellent season and is on his way to being one of the very best players to ever suit up for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Zach Hyman
by Philip van Riesen
Age: 27
Role: Zach Hyman has played the role of the forechecking and puck retrieval specialist on lines with noted star players, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner and John Tavares over the course of the past three years with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Last Season: The 2018-2019 season is Hyman’s career year to date, putting up 41 points, along with 21 goals (though he was the league leader in empty-net goals) in only 71 games. To continue, Hyman also drove play better last season then he ever has, creating more scoring chances for his team and tilting the ice in the Leafs favour, giving his linemates a better chance to outscore the opposition and fulfilling exactly what his role is supposed to be.
Expectations: Hyman’s expectations moving forward shouldn’t be focused on points because that isn’t his specialty, but given we expect him to be playing with Tavares and Marner again, we should expect a pace of 15 goals over 82 games.
Many may ask, “Why not 20? He did it last season and should only improve.” Well in reality the whole line of Hyman-Tavares-Marner shot at an unsustainable rate of 10.82% which is a shooting percentage that a line with the best shooter of this generation Alex Ovechkin with one of the best playmakers in Nicklas Backstrom can not sustain. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).
At 5v5 the Hyman-Tavares-Marner line scored a total of 53 goals, outscoring their xG by 11.62 (xG-is based on shot location, for reference a shot from near the point is worth close to a 0.014xG), now we should expect a line with elite players to outscore their xG, but not by a degree this high. In otherwords we should expect Hyman’s point totals to regress slightly after a lucky 2018-2019 season.
What He Needs to Meet Expectations: For Hyman to meet expectations, he needs to be come back strong from his injury. He also needs to regain/hold onto his spot on the Marner/Tavares line.
Alex Kerfoot
Age: 25
Role: Though nothing is set in stone, it would be a surprise if he was not the Toronto Maple Leafs third line centre. He can also play the wing. He will take over for Nazem Kadri and while he isn’t expected to provide Kadri’s offense, he should be a massive upgrade on Kadri’s defense.
Last Season: Kerfoot racked up an impressive 42 points for the Colorado Avalanche while establishing himself as one of the premier defensive forwards in the NHL.
Expectations: The expectations for Kerfoot are that he lock down the third line centre position, kill some penalties and provide the Leafs with the defensive presence they’ve been missing from their lineup since Leo Komarov was in his prime.
In a best case scenario, Kerfoot would become the Leafs version of Marian Hossa. Of course, he’s the best all-time defensive forward in the modern NHL, so let’s not get too ahead of ourselves here.
What He Needs to Meet Expectations: If Kerfoot wins his expected 3C role, and gets himself some solid wingers – perhaps Mikheyov and Kapanen – then he should excel on the Leafs.
Mike Babcock is a guy who tends to be set in his ways, so in order to meet his full potential, Kerfoot will have to win over the Toronto Maple Leafs head coach.
Kasperi Kapanen
Age: 23
Role: Third best right-winger on the NHL’s deepest team at that position. Penalty killer, defensive forward and speedster.
Last Season: Failed to perform late in the year when gifted top line minutes alongside Auston Matthews.
From February 14th – when he scored two goals – to the end of the seasons, Kapanen played in 29 games (including playoffs) and scored three times.
Overall, he actually had a good season. 20 goals, 44 points, 53% Corsi. He shouldn’t have been playing with Auston Matthews. Strangely, both Matthews and Kapanen put up better stats without each other (although that could easily be because of the common factor of Patrick Marleau).
Expectations: Considering that Kapanen’s most common linemate was the ghost of Patrick Marleau, I think that we should expect him to improve on last year’s strong seasons. He is one of the NHL’s fastest players, and a role alongside Alex Kerfoot could provide the Leafs with an excellent defensive line.
25 goals wouldn’t be a stretch. Kapanen isn’t in the elite stratosphere of Nylander and Marner, but he’s got the good to be a solid above average first-line level contributor.
What He Needs to Meet Expectations: All Kapanen really needed was to be re-signed and to get away from Marleau. Two thing that already happened. He is young enough to improve and he has got excellent potential.
Frederik Gauthier
Age: 24
Role: 4th line Centre / borderline regular
Last Season: Leafs 4th line centre. Nearly every player he played with did better without him, though it must be said that when players who played with Gauthier played with other people, those people were usually elite superstars playing offensive minutes.
I actually think Guathier exceeded all career expectations last year, and that his defense is good and he’s got more offensive moves than you would think. At 5v5 I don’t think that Spezza is an improvement over Guathier.
Expectations: Provide solid defense when and if he plays. Jason Spezza may have taken his job, but then again, Mike Babcock seems to be a huge fan.
What He Needs to Meet Expectations: Gauthier probably needs to have a really strong camp to retain his regular role in the lineup. The Leafs are super-deep and have tons of fourth line options, but I think Guathier can keep his job despite this.
I don’t guarantee that he will, but I think he’s a better NHL player than most people probably ever thought he would be, and I think he can contribute to the Toronto Maple Leafs.
I have to say, when I suggested he could be swapped out with an actual, literal, goat, that I was wrong. Not only is he better than a goat, but he’s probably better than a lot of other NHL 4th liners.
Nick Shore
By Philip van Riesen
Age: 26 (turning 27 in September).
Role: Nick Shore is among a handful of players competing in training camp for a spot on one of the Toronto Maple Leafs third or fourth line spots.
The Leafs have so many options that it wouldn’t be a surprise if he were to find himself in the press box, despite being probably the best option they have for 4C. Shore has never played power play at the NHL level, but he has a large resume of penalty killing, and is very good at it.
Last Season: Shore played overseas in the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) due to no team being smart enough to offer him a contract last summer. Shore played 37 games for Metallurg Magnitogorsk putting up 3 goals, 13 assists and 16 points.
To get a broader understanding of Shore using a larger sample than 37 games, we can take a look at his 2017-2018 season of which he played with three separate NHL teams (Los Angeles Kings, Ottawa Senators and Calgary Flames).
Shore scored 1.12P/60 which is a typical fourth line rate despite having an extremely poor on-ice shooting percentage. Shore also drove play extremely well offensively, and had great defensive impact as well, posting positive results in both RelxG% and RelCF%.
Based off Shore’s past few seasons he is an ideal fourth line centre who is able to drive play very well and tilt the ice in his teams favour, the only noticeable flaw in his game is his weak shot.
Expectations: Shore is definitely capable of playing the role of fourth line centre and penalty killing for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Shore’s past performance at both 5v5 and PK proves he is far more than capable of playing fourth line and first or second unit PK.
He should give the Leafs an advantage over the players most other team’s are using on their fourth line.
What He Needs to Meet Expectations: The biggest challenge for Shore is he needs to make the team out of training camp and prove to Mike Babcock he is worthy of a fourth line role,. This will be a challenge given the leafs have signed so many players to league minimum contracts this summer. Other than making the team, Shore simply needs to not take a step back from his previous seasons and he should be able to meet the expectations set for him.
Jason Spezza
By Mark Vanderlugt
Age: 36
Role: Expectations are that he will play centre on the fourth line.
Last season: 27 points in 76 games. Scored at a lower 5v5 rate than Freddie Guathier, but was still effective on the power-play.
Growing up a Leaf fan, in Toronto, Jason Spezza took a discount to come home and play for his favourite childhood team, in July. Spezza signed a 1 year, 700k contract, with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Looking at these stats, it’s clear Spezza is a shell of what he was once able to do in his glory days with the Ottawa Senators. From averaging 60 to 90 points, Spezza has had to adjust the role he plays in his career, from dishing the puck, to dishing the body.
Expectations: Jason Spezza is looking to be the Toronto Maple Leafs fourth line center while providing veteran leadership.
Spezza will be coming into this season with a lot to prove and what I expect out of him and his production is somewhere along the lines of; 75~ games, with about 30 points and a positive possession rating.
What He Needs to Meet Expectations: The question is- can he meet his expectations? I say, why not? He’s playing in front of his family and friends now and has a chip on his shoulder. What he needs to do is to stay healthy and provide that veteran leadership, Toronto needs now.
Where he could be slotted in the lineup is anywhere in the bottom six, as he has experience not only on center, but on the wing as well. The versatility that Spezza brings, will be vital for a playoff push, if Toronto gets hit by the injury bug.
Now the issue with Spezza is- he hasn’t had a healthy season since 2014-15, when he was 31. With Toronto’s medical science and sports science teams, Spezza is in good hands, which this could ultimately be a match made in heaven for Spezza
Morgan Rielly
Age: 25
Role: Best defenseman on the Toronto Maple Leafs. One of the NHL’s best defensemen. At 5v5 or the power-play, Rielly is among the best in the business, and the best Leafs d-man since Tomas Kaberle.
Last Season: His second season as a top-flight NHL defenseman was something to behold, as he led the league in 5v5 goals and points at his position. He was robbed of at least a Norris Trophy nomination.
Expectations: Play the most minutes on the team, be the team’s best defenseman and one of it’s core players. Another 20 goals is probably pushing it, but he should be able to score about a point-per-game.
What He Needs to Meet Expectations: The most impressive
Tyson Barrie
Age: 28
Role: 59 point top pairing defenseman, and elite power-play points producer.
Last Season: Barrie posted a career high 59 points for the Colorado Avalanche. Barrie has had six straight years where he played at a 40 point pace. Actually scored at a higher points-per-game rate two seasons ago, but injuries limited him to 68 games.
Expectations: Tyson Barrie is expected to enter the season as the Leafs top pairing right side defenseman. Hopefully Barrie pairs with Morgan Rielly and Rielly gets his first ever peer for a partner.
A Barrie/Rielly top pairing would be an adventure defensively, but their puck moving abilities would more than compensate.
What He Needs to Meet Expectations: While massive expectations pretty much come with the territory, Barrie may face higher than normal expectatoins because he was traded (in part) for fan favorite Nazem Kadri, and because he is seen somewhat as the missing piece to the Leafs dream lineup.
If Barrie is paired with Rielly, that also means tons of minutes with Tavares, Matthews and Marner, and so he should continue to produce. A demotion to the second power play unit may impact his point totals a bit.
Barrie should still be good for 50 points in what is most likely going to be his only season in Toronto.
Jake Muzzin
Age: 30
Role: Top Pairing Defenseman
Last Season: Muzzin was acquired from the LA Kings in January in a pre-deadline move that has proven to be an excellent trade. The Leafs get two playoff runs with Jake Muzzin, at a massively team-friendly $4.5 million cap-hit, and it didn’t cost them any of their five best prospects.
To make the trade even better, Muzzin was outstanding in Toronto posting a ridiculous 54% possession rating. Muzzin also posted 53% shots, 55% scoring chances, and 60% goals.
The Leafs were nearly unstoppable with him on the ice, which makes sense because he’s been one of the NHL’s best play-driving defenseman for nearly a decade now.
Expectations: One of the NHL’s most dependable and consistantly good defenseman will patrol one of the Leafs top pairings this year. Whether partnered with Rielly, Dermott or a mysteriously appearing Jake Gardiner, Muzzin can be depended on to play smart hockey and make his teammates better.
What he Needs to Meet Expectations: Expect Muzzin to be one of the unsung heroes of this extremely good Toronto Maple Leafs team. If he is healthy, he’ll be close to great.
Travis Dermott
Age: 22
Role: Finished last year playing on with Jake Gardiner in the playoffs, but both were hurt and the results weren’t as great as they should have been (Still posted a 52% CF and came out positive in goals for/against, however).
Last Season: In 64 games, Dermott posted a 53.5% CF, best on the team after William Nylander. He was among the best defenseman at breakouts and entry preventions. (stats from naturalstattrick.com).
Expectations: Much is expected of Dermott, and if he can return at full force after his injury, he should compete for a spot on one of the top two pairings.
In an injury filled season, in a non-offensive role with limited special teams time and a very low shooting percentage, Dermott still almost has 20 points.
His potential is 40 point top pairing defenseman.
What He Needs to Meet Those Expectations: In order to meet the expectations his previous high level of play has set out for him, Dermott has to return at full health.
Once he does that, he’ll also have to steal a job from whoever has it during his absence.
Cody Ceci
By Mark Vanderlugt
Age: 25
Role: On Ottawa last year, he was one of their most used defenseman. I think it’s fair to call him a potential top pairing defenseman.
Last season: Ceci scored seven goals and 19 points, while posting a terrible 44% CF. Take that with a grain of salt, because of how bad the Senators were, but keep in mind that good players do occaisainly perfrom well on bad teams (Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone).
Taking a look at what exactly Cody Ceci is, is next to impossible.
One might say you could find yourself becoming the next Riddler, with the amount of questions that are asked about Ceci. Is he terrible? Is he the result of bad teammates? Is he the result of being forced to play a role that did not match his style at all? Why did Leafs management trade for him and appear to be keeping him for the season? Do they see something in him that we don’t? Let’s take a further look, shall we?
Expectations: Some have him penciled into the Leafs top four already, while other consider him to be a terrible player.
Whether Cody Ceci is on the top pair, second pair, or even the third pair, Ceci’s tenure may only last this season. His cap hit of 4.5 million for this season, may be a little too rich for the Leafs to re-sign next summer. He has the tools of an effective everyday NHLer, but his mental game raises a lot of red flags- he’s a turn-over machine and has coverage issues.
What makes those questions and nightmares all go away is that Toronto will be the best team he has played for in his NHL career. Toronto will be able to keep him in a protected role and will be able to reconstruct his game from ground zero, if they want to.
What he needs to meet those expectations: Taking a look at Ceci’s stats is very upsetting, but I am here to say it isn’t as bad as you think it could be. The last time Ceci was in a protected, top 4 role was in 2015-16, and he wasn’t nearly as bad as he was last year.
With Toronto, he might still be used heavily in the defensive zone, but these will be the best players he’s ever had in his career- Matthews, Marner, Nylander, JT, Rielly. Now you throw in the fact that Frederik Andersen will be the best goalie he will be playing in front, Ceci could turn into a salvageable asset after all.
All he has to do with the Toronto Maple Leafs is simply walk over this bar of expectations. Then again, he might not even make the team. Training camp will be extremely interesting.
Be sure to check out Mark’s other posts on Editor in Leaf.
Michael Neurvirth
by Spencer Teixeira
Age: 31
Role: Likely the Toronto Maple Leafs backup goalie.
Last Season: Neuvirth missed significant time due to injury last season, a trend that has plagued the Czech netminder over the past couple of seasons.
Neuvirth only appeared in 7 games last year, recording just a single win with an objectively terrible .859 save percentage. (via Hockey Reference )
Expectations: I expect Neuvirth to grab the backup position, but I highly doubt that he keeps the position throughout the entire year.
Michael Hutchinson is easily the most NHL ready goaltender behind Neuvirth, but that doesn’t make him an ideal option either.
I would personally give Neuvirth until about mid November/December to really prove his ability at the NHL level, then I’d look at some other options (trade, KHL signing, prospects).
If Neuvirth does happen to keep the back-up position, I would expect him to ideally play roughly 20-25 games.
What He Needs to Do to Meet Expectations: Neuvirth needs to play well and play consistently, although injuries may once again hurt his chances.
Frederik Andersen
by Spencer Teixeira
Age: 29
Last Season: Andersen played 60 games, recorded 36 wins and a .917 save percentage.
The Danish netminder would fall to injury twice with concerning knee and groin issues, although Freddy would only drop six games played from the 2017-18 season. (via Hockey Reference & Rotoworld )
Expectations: I would hope that Andersen would play roughly 50 games, although 60-65 is more likely in my opinion. I would expect Andresen to finish with around 30-35 wins and anywhere between a .918 and .920 save percentage.
Toronto Maple Leafs Top Ten Prospects. dark. Next
What he Needs to Do to Meet Expectations: Babcock needs to watch how much he plays Andersen this season, as he seems to become exhausted come April and cannot make up for the Leafs mistakes in the playoffs as often as he can in the regular season. Roughly 50 games in ideal for Andersen’s success in my opinion.