Who Should the Toronto Maple Leafs play on their first pairing this year?
Last year, the Toronto Maple Leafs top pairing consisted of Morgan Rielly and Ron Hainsey.
Together Hainsey and Rielly posted 49.57% of the shot-attempts, 47.84% of the shots, 50.58% of the scoring chances and 58.82% of the goals.
When paired with anyone else, Rielly posted 55.41% of the shot-attempts, 51.85% of the shots, 56.95% of the scoring chances, and 60.94% of the goals. (naturalstattrick.com).
It is indisputable that Rielly was held back by Ron Hainsey. Using all of the ways that we have to measure an NHL player’s performance, we know – with certainty – that Rielly will improve with a better partner.
This is actually been a theme of Rielly’s career.
Rielly Needs a New Partner
The development of the former fifth overall draft pick into an elite NHL defenseman is all the more impressive when you consider the players he has been partnered with in his career.
As a rookie, he spent time equally with Gardiner (55% CF when paired), Cody Franson (42%) and Tim Gleason (38%).
As a sophomore, he was paired mostly with Roman Polak (48%).
Year three, Rielly was paired with Matt Hunwick (48%).
In year four, with Nikita Zaitsev (49%).
Then for the first time in his career, he had the same partner, Ron Hainsey, for back to back years in 2017-18 and 2018-19 (49%).
Over the course of his career, he has been paired with four terrible defenseman, and the common factor is that whenever he plays with other puck movers – Gardiner, Muzzin, Dermott – he posts way, way better stats.
Over the course of their careers, Gardiner and Rielly have played nearly a seasons worth of minutes together, and they are the best overall numbers Rielly has with anyone.
Which brings us to this season. Ron Hainsey is gone and Morgan Rielly will be getting a new partner. With Gardiner seemingly gone, and Dermott starting on the injured reserve, the auditions for Rielly’s partner should be quite interesting.
If history tells us anything, it’s that we should be looking to pair Rielly with another puck mover, and not seek to balance him out with a defensive defenseman.
Polak, Hainsey, Hunwick and Zaitsev all have one thing in common: they are all replacement players.
Morgan Rielly is a thoroughbred and he needs another thoroughbred to fully tap his potential.
Codi Ceci is another Polak; another Hainsey. He shouldn’t even be allowed to practice with Rielly, let alone pair with him in a game. Pairing Ceci with Rielly is an objectively terrible idea.
I honestly can’t believe how many people have suggested this. Ceci has the stats of a replacement player. There is nothing he has ever done that suggests a contending team should play him in the top four, let alone gift him the position of top pairing partner to Morgan Rielly.
Suggesting Ceci should be on the first line is like saying Freddie Gauthier should line up with Auston Matthews to help him with defense. Just a terrible, almost incomprehensibly bad idea.
If the Leafs don’t add anyone else before the season starts, their other options are to play Muzzin on his offside, promote a rookie, or use another replacement player like Jordan Schmaltz or Ben Harpur.
All are terrible ideas (except Muzzin, but why play him out of position if you don’t have to?).
The obvious answer – and the slightly counter-intuitive option – is Tyson Barrie.
Sure, both players have their defensive issues, but they make up for them by tilting the ice in the opposite direction. The best defense isn’t being in good position to stop the opposition – it’s having the puck.
Barrie and Rielly will destroy the opposition. Barrie will be the best and most talented partner Rielly has ever had (save the occasional hang-out with Jake Gardiner).
If we weren’t conditioned to think in terms of “offensive” and “defensive” defenseman, this would be a no-brainer. It still should be.
In hockey, the math says to stack your best players, not spread them out.
The Toronto Maple Leafs can have the best first pairing in the NHL, all they need to do is ignore the outdated dogma that says you can’t do it, and pair their two 60+ point defenseman together.