The Toronto Maple Leafs Should Consider Signing Kevin Shattenkirk
With a sudden new addition to the 2019 Free Agency pool, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a chance to improve their defensive unit.
Prior to Wednesday night, the Toronto Maple Leafs offseason plans appear to have been more or less taken care of. With one obvious exception, Kyle Dubas tackled on the majority of the priorities that the team needed to be dealt with.
Then came the unexpected news that the New York Rangers will buy out Kevin Shattenkirk, with two-years and over $12 million remaining on the deal. Now there’s another marquee name added to the otherwise shallow pool of remaining free agents for teams to go after. To boot, he shoots from the right-side and is still in his prime.
With this new development, the Leafs offseason plans now have a new item added to the checklist. Of course, there would have to be other moves involved in order to make this one work considering the team is two players shy of the 50-roster limit. But for a fan base that has longed for an improved defensive core, there’s never been a better opportunity than now to do just that.
At the very least, the Leafs should seriously consider signing Shattenkirk to a short-term contract.
Reliable offence and decent metrics
Shattenkirk’s primary calling card is his offensive abilities and that aspect of his game has not gone away even as he turns 30. Even though his point totals have slightly decreased, he can still be relied on to rack up offence wherever he plays.
The previous season saw him produce 2 goals, 26 assists (14 primary assists), and 28 points in only 63 games. He missed significant time last year due to a shoulder injury and also getting healthy scratched late in the campaign, resulting in an otherwise respectable season offensively speaking.
Historically speaking, Shattenkirk can be relied upon to produce on the attack with a career PPG average of 0.57, which is impressive for a defenseman. To put that into perspective, amongst all active NHL defenders, he is ranked 16th in career PPG averages, which is higher than the likes of Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Duncan Keith.
In terms of the underlying metrics, last season saw Shattenkirk post a 50.41 CF%, a 50.62 FF%, a 47.06 xGF%, a 51.12 SF%, a 48.75 SCF%, and a 51.70 HDCF% at even strength. Compared to the rest of his team, he finished among the top 5 in the majority of these aforementioned stats. In simpler terms, he was one of the few bright spots on the mediocre 2018-19 Rangers team.
Shattenkirk’s most frequent defensive partners were Fredrik Claesson and Brady Skjei, both of whom are young defenders trying to round out their games. As the photo above shows, Shattenkirk made a decent pairing with Claesson at even strength all things considered, but the latter’s numbers plummet when separated. A similar pattern emerges when seeing Skjei numbers, showing Shattenkirk can elevate his partners even slightly.
It goes beyond just these two players. In the chart below, the Rangers defenseman with Shattenkirk were just near the middle of the pack in terms of shot metrics. Without him, the same player’s numbers drop off significantly.
Photo from HockeyViz.com
The fact he was able to do this on a team that ended up winning the 2nd overall pick in this year’s draft speaks volumes of Shattenkirk’s impact on the team (even if it was marginal at the very least). It also makes you wonder why the Rangers even decided to buy him out in the first place.
Glaring weaknesses
This isn’t to say that Shattenkirk isn’t without flaws in his game, and there are some troubling ones when you take a deeper dive.
For instance, while the Rangers were effective at limiting shots against from the outside, a large number of them were within inches of the goal crease when he was on the ice. Shattenkirk isn’t exactly known for his prowess defensive abilities, but this a troubling sight nonetheless (despite the fact the Rangers were even worse at neutralizing shots against when he was off).
Photo from HockeyViz.com
Additionally, his individual impact on the ice is hit-and-miss at both ends of the ice.
While in the offensive zone, he is good at getting shots off from the point and from either the right faceoff circle or down low in the slot both at 5v5 and on the power play. In the defensive end, he lets in a lot of chances from high-danger areas, the areas he can limit are from low percentage areas, and he is not used at all on the penalty kill.
Photo from HockeyViz.com
Most significantly, signing Shattenkirk would mean officially preventing themselves from bringing back Jake Gardiner.
The primary reason for concern is that while the former should likely come in at a much cheaper price point given the circumstances, it would come at a loss of talent shot contributions and defensive zone entries, the latter of which is important in limiting scoring chances against. While Gardiner has gotten a lot of flack during his Leafs tenure, the disparity between these two players is quite something.
No doubt that the money saved from a potential Gardiner extension could be beneficial for the Leafs (considering his asking price), but they would clearly be getting what they paid for if they went with Shattenkirk.
Worth the risk
So taking everything into consideration, is it worth it for the Leafs to sign Shattenkirk? The answer is an empathic yes, just as long as it is a short-term deal.
At this point in time, Shatenkirk’s value is at an all-time low given the fact he was just bought out by his hometown team. The primary focus of his next contract could be a “prove it” deal of one or two years with an AAV of roughly $2 million. As last season demonstrated, Dubas likes to take chances on players who have talent but are looking for a fresh start.
Since he is an offensive defenseman, Shattenkirk fits the Leafs identity of being good puck movers in transition and fast skaters. His role wouldn’t be to be the best player on the team in this role (Morgan Rielly, Tyson Barrie, and Travis Dermott satisfy it much better and are younger) but to act as a solid complimentary piece on either the second or third pairing.
Photo from HockeyViz.com
Adding Shattenkirk into the Leafs defensive core would also help push Cody Ceci down to the third pair and Ben Harpur onto the Marlies, which should be beneficial to these two players given their trajectory. It could balance out the Leafs defence and have a core that would be the best the team has iced in years.
A good defensive partner for Shattenkirk could be Muzzin, given that he plays a two-way defensive game and that fits well with a player who is more lethal offensively. It wouldn’t be as dangerous as the Muzzin-Rielly pairing was last year, but the on-ice impact could share some similarities.
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Of course, the Leafs would need to make a trade or two to make it work given there are only two roster spots available. Since one of them will be given to Mitch Marner should he re-sign, that means a low-tier prospect or a fringe player would need to be moved.
All things considered, it’s worth the risk to go out and sign Shattenkirk. He may not be a perfect defenseman, but he could be a good fit on a team that has Stanley Cup aspirations. It’s something the Leafs should, at the very least, consider.
All stats unless otherwise noted are from Hockey-Reference.com and Natural Stat Trick.
All salary numbers are from Cap Friendly.